The war criminal ‘victim’: Netanyahu’s inevitable fate

Israel’s notorious former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has suddenly disappeared into obscurity. The man who served in his country’s military for about 35 years, in politics for nearly 10, and oversaw major wars, including the ongoing genocide in Gaza, has retreated quickly from the headlines and political significance.

In his resignation letter, Gallant accused Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — who fired him on 5 November — and his replacement as Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, of endangering the country’s security. However, he kept his criticism focused largely on the issue of military conscription for Israel’s ultra-Orthodox Jewish community.

Gallant’s refusal to offer an exemption to Israel’s Haredim had always been a source of tension between him and his domineering boss. Yet, the political weight of that issue seems to have been inflated greatly by all parties, each with a political purpose in mind.

Gallant wanted to signal to the more secular and nationalistic factions within the Likud Party — the largest in Netanyahu’s ruling coalition — that he advocated for a fairer and more equitable Israel. Netanyahu, who heads the Likud, wanted to appeal to the more extreme segments of the party and to his deeply religious coalition partners.

Considering Israel’s shift towards the religious extreme right, it was only natural for Netanyahu to win this round.

Gallant, who as of 1 January also resigned from the Israeli parliament (the Knesset), made his resignation letter largely about the Likud, and less about Israel itself. “My path is the Likud path, and I believe in its principles, trust its members and voters,” he said, linking his first vote for the party to a partnership in “Menachem Begin’s revolution,” while priding himself on remaining “loyal to the movement’s national and ideological path.”

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Gallant’s sentiment could be understood in two ways: either as a way to seal his legacy before quitting politics altogether, or, more likely, as the charting of a new political discourse that would allow him to compete for the leadership of Likud, and perhaps even to become prime minister.

Netanyahu understands this well and seems to have concluded that his only path to political survival is the continuation of the Gaza war and the expansion of the conflict to engage multiple parties. It is this expanded war that has allowed him to recover his pre-war approval ratings and keep his coalition partners satisfied.

The Israeli prime minister’s strategy over the past 15 months of genocide has been consistent with his political legacy: achieving power and holding on to it. But the events that followed 7 October, 2023, have made his chances of political survival much slimmer.

In the past, Netanyahu mastered the art of survival by exploiting his rivals’ weaknesses, using his power to manipulate the Israeli public emotionally with a mix of nationalistic, religious and personal discourse. This narrative often portrays Netanyahu and his family as victims of numerous enemies who have plotted his downfall ceaselessly, despite all the good that he believes that he has done for the country.

Netanyahu’s “victim mentality” has long been a topic in Israeli media, even years before the war. It is a strategy that he has used to defend himself in court against accusations of corruption, and it continues to serve him during the war. Even the arrest warrants against him and Gallant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on 21 November have been used to feed the narrative that Netanyahu is being punished for simply loving Israel too much.

However, when the war ends, merely playing the victim card will no longer suffice. It will be difficult, if not impossible, to explain what has transpired, beginning on 7 October, 2023: the collapse of the security apparatus, the failure of the military, the lack of strategy, the severely weakened economy, the splintering of the nation, the killing of hostages, and much more.

Even Netanyahu, the master politician, will struggle to keep the public on his side or to keep his angry coalition partners in line.

In fact, the right-wing coalition is already on the verge of collapse. The joining of Gideon Sa’ar and his New Hope Party on 29 September may have breathed some life into it, but the constant threats from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir make the government unstable, at best.

The strength of the government was tested on 31 December, when a decisive vote on the budget law sparked a public fight between Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, almost leading to the latter’s removal.

Yet, the government remains intact simply because the war remains ongoing. The war, and the expanded conflict, have allowed Netanyahu’s ministers to push their extremist agendas without question, which ultimately allows Netanyahu to stay at the helm a bit longer.

None of this is likely to change the post-war scenario though; the coalition is likely to falter, Likud may enter its own civil war, and Israeli society will likely erupt in mass protests. It is then that coalition partners will become enemies, and the likes of Gallant may return, offering themselves as saviours of the state. What will Netanyahu do then?

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.