Since the fall of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime over a month ago, Arab and regional powers are primarily worried about the Iranian agenda, as Iran is unlikely to accept the bitterness of defeat in Syria and may instead attempt to support internal chaos and play the sectarian card. Another major concern is Turkiye’s agenda, as many Arab countries view Turkiye with suspicion due to its continued support of political Islamic movements both in Syria and across the broader region, despite Turkish regional policies’ major transformations. However, we do not see any real apprehension by the Arabs towards the ruling Israeli right’s agenda and its real visions for the new Syria, or in more precise terms, the geopolitical shift required by Israel on the level of the entire region.
What all Arabs should be concerned about, along with Iran and Turkiye’s agendas, is the right-wing Zionist vision of Syria and the region, especially with the return of Donald Trump and his right-wing team that will be complicit. As for Iran, it has no real cards left to play in Syria, is currently in a phase of its regional influence being torn apart and is in a state of defence and concern about the existence of an American-Israeli agenda for a direct and indirect attack on Tehran. As for Turkiye, it has a strategic agenda and interests with the new Syria, but they are shared, and Turkiye will be a sponsor and supporter of the new regime. There is no real concern about Turkish influence, but it may be very positive in light of the economic conditions, the destroyed infrastructure and the absence of the army and security in Syria.
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On the other hand, why should we worry about the Israeli agenda? In short, it is mainly based on the theory that Israel’s security in the long term depends on fragmenting and dividing Syria and playing the minorities card, as well as perhaps creating states representing the Alawites, Druze and Kurds. This agenda has been in place since the moment the Al-Assad regime fell, seen through Israel’s haste to destroy the entire military structure of the former Syrian army, destroy weapons depots, expand into southern Syria in the forbidden zone, and declare the ceasefire in 1974 invalid. It also includes control of Mount Hermon, which represents a strategic line of defence for both Syria and Lebanon and with Israel’s control over it, southern Syria and even Damascus have become strategically exposed.
Israel did not wait for the world’s approval or international resolutions but rather moved quickly within a few hours to control the area, and Netanyahu even went to visit. Yedioth Ahronoth recently revealed, quoting Israeli officials, Israel’s intentions to maintain control over approximately 15 kilometres and an intelligence distance of up to 60 kilometres in Syria. This would mean it is imposing a strategic and security occupation and almost absolute control over the southern region, initially, and in preparation for widening the scope of the occupation army’s strategic operations in the event of chaos in the south to expand the buffer zones.
Could Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) have stopped the Israeli project? Certainly not, especially since US interests in Syria are linked to Israel, and there is no equating the HTS and the occupation. This is in addition to the fact that the HTS priorities today are much more treacherous in dealing with unity, security, stability and many challenges, but what happened reveals the real difference between countries (and regimes) that have real strategic visions and the Arab environment that is still stumbling, differing and confused about how to deal with the new Syrian reality.
It is very sad that Israel has taken control of the vital water resources of Jordan and Syria in the Yarmouk Basin, which could have solved a major problem for Jordan, and that the Israeli army has set out to threaten the people and villages in Syria and disarm them. Israel has seized this opportune moment to redraw the region’s map in its favour, leveraging its clear security objectives and strategic interests to impose its agenda on the international community.
This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed on 12 January 2025
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.