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Egypt’s options for the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza

February 4, 2025 at 12:45 pm

A group of Palestinians holding flags, demonstrate in support of the stance of Egypt and Jordan in rejecting US President Donald Trump’s call for the deportation of Gazan residents in Deir Al Balah, Gaza on February 01, 2025 [Ashraf Amra/Anadolu Agency]

US President Donald Trump’s insistence that Egypt and Jordan will accept displaced Palestinians from the Gaza Strip raises significant concerns about a potential deal being negotiated behind closed doors to facilitate their forced displacement. In other words: ethnic cleansing. The final details of such a deal may not yet be fully formed, especially given the official rejection by the six-party Arab meeting in Cairo last Saturday. Egypt, Jordan, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE concluded their meeting with a call for the US administration to pursue the moribund two-state solution.

Let’s be clear, though. The displacement plan is not a direct consequence of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood in October, 2023, or the subsequent genocide of the Palestinians in Gaza. Ethnic cleansing has been on the table since the 1940s, although attempts have failed repeatedly.

It is a concern, however, that Trump’s rhetoric this time was stated with immense confidence and an implicit threat. “We do a lot for them [Egypt and Jordan],” he said last Thursday, “and they will do this.” Rebuilding Gaza, added the US president, will take 15 years.

Trump reiterated his statement on Friday, reported Reuters: “Jordan and Egypt will accept people from Gaza. I heard someone say they wouldn’t, but I think they will. I’m confident they will.”

The carrot-and-stick approach has long been used by Trump to advance his agenda.

He has already offered Egypt incentives by exempting it, along with Israel, from the US freeze on aid to countries worldwide.

The US president may resort to courting his Egyptian counterpart, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, with an official invitation to the White House, a package of financial assistance from Gulf nations, economic and military deals, and the potential write-off of part of Egypt’s external debt (which stands at a staggering $153 billion). These incentives could serve to soften Cairo’s stance.

Egyptian opposition figures warn that there may be undisclosed negotiations taking place, with concerns that Al-Sisi could leverage the situation for his own benefit, using it to solidify his grip on power and push for more constitutional amendments allowing a fourth presidential term and an extension of his rule until 2036.

Fuelling these suspicions is the reality that the Egyptian president faces a significant internal crisis due to failed economic policies and dwindling public support. Moreover, regional and Western actors fear that his regime might collapse as that of Bashar Al-Assad did in Syria. This gives Washington leverage, allowing it to hint at backing a suitable alternative to prevent instability in Egypt; such pressure could influence Al-Sisi’s stance.

READ: Trump says he has ‘no assurances’ Gaza ceasefire will hold as he prepares to host Netanyahu

Egypt’s response appears inconsistent and disjointed across multiple levels. On one hand, Al-Sisi personally declared Egypt’s rejection of Palestinian displacement during a press conference with Kenyan President William Ruto in Cairo. He described such displacement as an injustice in which Egypt could not participate, reiterating that the solution lies in establishing a Palestinian state with historical rights, based on the pre-June 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

Egypt escalated its stance by orchestrating what appeared to be staged protests at the Rafah border crossing last Friday.

These demonstrations were coordinated with security agencies, involved pro-government parties and lawmakers from both parliamentary chambers, and featured slogans condemning the displacement plan. At the same time, the Egyptian authorities denied permission to the Civil Democratic Movement (a coalition of liberal and leftist parties) to organise a protest outside the US Embassy in Cairo against the same issue.

And last month, the Cairo regime renewed the detention of 173 young Egyptians for an additional 45 days pending investigation, following their participation in pro-Palestine demonstrations on 20 October, 2023.

Despite this public stance, Al-Sisi appeared to be courting Trump again, stating that the American president’s leadership could usher in a “golden age of peace” in the Middle East. According to a statement from the Egyptian presidency, Al-Sisi emphasised that the international community was counting on Trump’s ability to reach a historic and lasting peace agreement that would resolve the long-standing conflict in the region.

Jamal Al-Masri, an expert in Palestinian affairs, noted that the Egyptian government is attempting to manufacture a facade of popular support for its position. This, he argued, is meant to send a message to Washington that accepting the displacement plan could destabilise the Egyptian regime, threaten national security and provoke public unrest that might even lead the military to remove Al-Sisi from power.

READ: Gazans in Egypt reject displacement, grapple with decision when to go home

Although Egypt’s options are limited, they are not non-existent. One possibility is reviving the idea of relocating displaced Palestinians to the Negev Desert (12,500 square kilometres), which is occupied by Israel and borders Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula. Al-Sisi actually suggested this plan at the onset of the Gaza war in October 2023.

A political analyst who requested anonymity warned that an undeclared displacement operation could take place. Egypt might quietly accept a certain number of displaced Gazans as “refugees”, integrating them in a manner similar to that of Syrian and Sudanese refugees already in the country. Another scenario could involve receiving injured Palestinians and their companions under humanitarian pretexts, without ensuring their return to Gaza. Additionally, Gazan families might be resettled informally in Rafah and El-Arish within Egypt.

Adam Boehler, the US special envoy for hostage affairs, has urged Egypt and Jordan to present alternative solutions if they reject the displacement plan. He noted that Trump has proposed what he considers a suitable option for both countries but remains open to other alternatives.

Egypt is unlikely to escalate tensions or confront the US administration directly, especially given the strong support that Trump provided to Al-Sisi during his first term (2017-2020), when he famously referred to him as “my favourite dictator.”

Egypt could, however, manoeuvre out of US pressure by leveraging its role as a mediator in negotiating a ceasefire agreement and securing a hostage exchange deal between Israel and Hamas. Cairo’s strategic importance to Israel, which is acknowledged openly by Israeli officials, also provides it with some diplomatic leverage.

It could also further consolidate Arab and Islamic opposition to the displacement plan and seek backing from global powers such as Russia and China. Additionally, the popular rejection of displacement, both within Egypt and among Palestinians, could be used to pressure Washington into reconsidering its approach.

A particularly significant card Egypt could play is the potential collapse of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty if forced displacement to Sinai proceeds. Such a scenario might provoke Palestinian attacks from Egyptian territory on Israeli targets, significantly escalating tensions. This is an outcome that Washington would certainly wish to avoid.

Observers also suggest strengthening the Palestinian Authority’s control over Gaza, accelerating reconstruction efforts, and possibly deploying an international or Arab peacekeeping force to separate Gaza from Israeli settlements.

If displacement fails as an option, Trump might pivot towards allowing Israel to annex settlements in the West Bank or resume military operations against Hamas.

Ultimately, realpolitik will likely shape upcoming negotiations between Egypt and the US. Both Trump and Al-Sisi share an interest in removing Hamas from power, ensuring Israeli security and preventing a repeat of the 7 October incursion. However, for Egypt to agree to a displacement plan, it would require massive concessions that Al-Sisi might be unwilling, or unable, to provide due to the significant political, security and strategic risks involved.

With upcoming diplomatic engagements, including Jordan’s King Abdullah’s visit to Washington next week, and ongoing behind-the-scenes negotiations between Egyptian and US officials, the coming days are bound to bring new developments. The outcome will depend on how far Trump is willing to push his carrot-and-stick approach.

OPINION: Gaza rejects displacement, but what if it’s imposed?

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.