The limits of the Israeli escalation against Egypt

The Chief of Staff of the Israeli occupation army, Herzi Halevi, was keen to end his leadership of the army with a new escalation against Egypt, by announcing his concern about the capabilities of the Egyptian army, which, although they do not pose a current threat, pose a potential threat at any moment.

Halevi, who was lecturing his officers before leaving his position at the beginning of the month, explained that the Egyptian army possesses advanced combat systems, aircraft, submarines, warships and modern tanks, in addition to a large number of infantry forces for no reason in his opinion, considering this to be a great danger.

General Halevi’s statements were made after Israel’s permanent representative to the UN, Danny Danon, expressed his concerns about the Egyptian army’s armament. He claimed that Egypt does not have any threats in the region, so why does it need all these submarines and tanks?

It is as if the general and the diplomat suddenly woke up to find the Egyptian army developing its combat capabilities and obtaining all of these weapons systems! This is despite the fact that it is openly armed and obtains its weapons from the same sources as Israel, and these sources definitely haven’t hidden its successive deals with the Egyptian army over the past years.

The Egyptian army is the strongest Arab army, and it is one of the major armies in the region, along with the Israeli, Turkish and Iranian armies. According to the Global Firepower Index, the Egyptian army ranked ninth in the world in 2020, ahead of the Turkish and Israeli armies, but it dropped ten places to 19th in the world in 2025.  This decline may be due to other armies that may have jumped to higher ranks because they are developing their weapons systems, the number of their forces and their equipment, including the Israeli army, which ranked 15th globally.

According to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), issued in March 2022, Egypt was among the top ten countries in the world that imported the most weapons between 2017 and 2021, ranking third globally after India and Saudi Arabia. However, Egypt’s purchase of international weapons declined in the following years, perhaps due to a sense of sufficiency, or due to the lack of the necessary financial liquidity.

The concerns expressed by Israeli military staff and politicians about Egypt’s armament are a trick to blackmail Egypt, and impose Zionist positions and policies related to the displacement of the people of Gaza to Egypt, or involving Egypt in the management of the Strip, and disarming the resistance, which means entering into an armed confrontation with Hamas and other resistance factions.

Netanyahu and his generals are trying to save themselves from legal and political prosecution, prison and blows because of their historic failure on 7 October 2023, so they alternate between harassing Egypt, Lebanon and Syria. Their aim is to keep the situation heated and tense, and to stop it from calming after the fighting stops, even temporarily, in Gaza, pending the second phase negotiations.

The occupation authorities and their media have recently sought to shed light on Egyptian military reinforcements in Sinai, especially in Area C, where the peace agreement only allows Egypt to have police and border guard forces as a formality. The truth is that Egypt strengthened its presence in that area after the January 2011 revolution with the aim of confronting the armed groups there, and the matter developed greatly after the 2013 coup. This was done in full coordination with the Israeli authorities, which allowed the presence of these heavy forces.

Israel not preparing for surprise Egyptian attack scenario ‘which does not exist’

Now the Israeli authorities claim that Egypt has violated the peace agreement, to cover up its own clear violation of the same agreement. This is in addition to its repeated harassment of Egyptian border checkpoints, and the killing or wounding of a number of Egyptian soldiers, some which have been announced and others concealed. Moreover, the Israeli occupation army is currently occupying the Philadelphi Corridor and refusing to withdraw from it, even though this withdrawal was scheduled to take place before the end of the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement and the handover of the captives. This phase, which lasted 42 days, ended on Saturday. It is known that the Philadelphi Corridor is a demilitarised buffer zone according to the 2005 crossings agreement, which is an integral part of the Egyptian-Israeli peace agreement.

These are not real Israeli concerns, as Israel realises that the current Egyptian regime does not want war and does not want to violate the peace agreement. Instead, the Israeli allegations aim to fabricate pretexts and justifications to put more pressure on the Egyptian position that rejects the displacement of Palestinians.

Perhaps the real fear, as expressed by the (outgoing) Israeli Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi, is that “the Egyptian army may find itself under a different leadership overnight.”

Also, part of the valid fears is the growing popular Egyptian hostility towards the Zionist entity, and the increasing popular demands to cancel, or at least freeze, the peace agreement that turned 46 years old this month.

It is natural for the wave of hostility towards the Zionists to rise among the Egyptian people, who have deep ties with the people of Gaza, and who have made great sacrifices for the Palestinian cause through five previous wars; namely the 1948 Nakba War, the Suez War in 1956, the 1967 War, the War of Attrition, and ending with the October War of 1973. Most Egyptian families keep pictures of relatives they have lost in those wars. When the Egyptians feel that the enemy has not only destroyed Gaza but also wants to forcibly displace its people to Egypt or elsewhere, it is only natural for their anger to grow and for them to demand that their armed forces confront this Israeli arrogance before it extends its war to Sinai or to the Egyptian interior.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 2 March 2025

Israel asks to amend Camp David deal with Egypt for control over Philadelphi Corridor

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.