Amman’s edge: The Kingdom’s perilous balancing act

Jordan finds itself once again at a critical juncture, attempting a delicate balancing act between escalating domestic pressures and the volatile currents of regional realignments. As the Gaza war continues to reshape the Middle East, Amman’s traditional role as a stable Western ally and custodian of holy sites is being tested like never before.

The weight of custodianship: Al-Aqsa and a faltering mandate

Central to Jordan’s identity, its diplomatic standing and above all the Hashemite Kingdom’s very legitimacy is its historical role as the custodian of Muslim and Christian holy sites in Jerusalem, a responsibility explicitly reaffirmed by the 1994 peace treaty with Israel. This custodianship, primarily exercised through the Jordanian-appointed Jerusalem Waqf, grants Amman significant, albeit increasingly challenged, authority over the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound (Haram al-Sharif).

Jordan consistently highlights its substantial financial commitment to Jerusalem’s holy sites, with the Jordanian Royal Islamic Strategic Studies Centre claiming over $1 billion was spent from 1924 to 2010, largely by the royal family. However, critics argue this investment alone doesn’t ensure effective custodianship amidst persistent Israeli actions. Repeated incursions into Al-Aqsa, restrictions on Palestinian worshipers, and attempts to assert control, along with yesterday’s none binding Knesset motion to annex the West Bank, have left many questioning the efficacy of Jordan’s guardianship and further undermine Jordanian authority and the delicate status quo. This fuels widespread domestic discontent and intensifies pressure on King Abdullah II, as many perceive a failure to adequately protect the holy site despite the financial contributions.

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The Gaza dilemma: Humanitarianism under scrutiny

The ongoing Israel genocide in Gaza presents another profound challenge for Jordan, intertwining its compassionate efforts with deeply sensitive political realities. Jordan has been at the forefront of providing aid to Gaza, establishing field hospitals and facilitating the evacuation of critically ill patients especially children for treatment within the Kingdom. As of early March 2025, Jordan had evacuated 114 people from Gaza, including 39 patients, for specialized medical care in its top hospitals. Jordan also operates two military field hospitals within Gaza itself.

However, Jordan’s policy regarding the repatriation of these patients after treatment has drawn significant scrutiny. While Jordanian officials maintain that patients are only returned to Gaza once their treatment is complete and with the aim of supporting Palestinian steadfastness on their homeland, concerns have been raised by some families and human rights advocates, with reports suggesting some were sent back before full recovery. This delicate balance of providing life-saving care while adhering to a policy that avoids contributing to the displacement of Palestinians has become a source of profound ethical and political complexity for Amman. Yet, the stark reality remains: a child’s full recovery in a tent in the devastated, war-torn conditions of Gaza is unimaginable.

Lack of decisive measures amidst genocide

Despite strong condemnations of Israeli actions in Gaza, which Jordanian officials, including King Abdullah II and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, have described as an “unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe” and “war crimes,” Jordan’s diplomatic response has been insufficient given the scale of the suffering in Gaza.

Jordan did recall its ambassador from Israel in November 2023, and requested that the Israeli ambassador not return to Amman, linking the return of both envoys to a halt in the war and an end to the humanitarian crisis in November 2023, this step has not been followed by more drastic measures, such as a complete severing of diplomatic ties or the expulsion of Israeli diplomats. This perceived lack of more serious punitive actions against Israel, particularly amidst widespread public anger over the ongoing violence of genocidal nature in Gaza, fuels a sense of frustration among a significant portion of the Jordanian populace. Many Jordanians, deeply connected to the Palestinian cause, have called for the annulment of the peace treaty with Israel and the closure of the Israeli embassy in Amman, but Amman never really considered this option in any serious manner.

Domestic pressures: A fragile internal landscape

Jordan’s domestic scene is characterized by a complex interplay of economic hardship, political reform aspirations, and the enduring Palestinian-Jordanian demographic balance. The economy has long struggled with high unemployment estimated to be above 21 per cent while among the youth the figure could be as high as 46 per cent. The influx of refugees, especially from the Syrian conflict, has further strained resources. Such economic grievances frequently translate into public discontent and calls for greater political accountability.

Furthermore, while Jordan is a monarchy, there are ongoing, albeit slow, debates about political reform. The electoral system, despite some changes, has historically favoured pro-government tribal elites, leading to underrepresentation of urban voters, many of whom are of Palestinian origin. This demographic reality, where Jordanians of Palestinian descent constitute a significant portion of the population, means that developments in Palestine, especially those concerning Jerusalem and Gaza, resonate deeply within Jordan, creating a powerful domestic constituency that demands a strong and decisive stance from the government. The monarchy’s ability to navigate these internal pressures while maintaining stability is crucial.

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Regional realignments: The shifting sands of alliances

Jordan’s foreign policy has traditionally been anchored in a pro-Western stance, securing substantial financial aid, primarily from the United States, and military cooperation. Amman has also maintained a peace treaty with Israel, positioning itself as a vital, if often uncomfortable, buffer in the Arab-Israeli conflict.

However, the current regional landscape is undergoing significant shifts. The Gaza crisis has deeply strained Jordan’s relations with Israel, with King Abdullah II frequently condemning Israeli actions. This tension is further complicated by the emergence of new regional alignments and the increasing assertiveness of non-state actors. Jordan finds itself caught between its traditional allies, the imperative to support the Palestinian cause, and the need to maintain its own security and stability in a highly volatile neighbourhood. Quietly but steadily Jordan’s security cooperation with Israel still actively pursuit.

A tightrope walk

Jordan’s balancing act is becoming increasingly precarious. The Kingdom’s historical commitment to Al-Aqsa, its humanitarian response to Gaza, and its internal political and economic fragilities are all converging amidst a dramatically shifting regional order. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has not only exposed the limitations of Jordan’s custodianship, despite significant financial investment, but has also underscored the profound moral and political dilemmas inherent in its humanitarian efforts and diplomatic posture. As Jordan navigates these turbulent waters, its ability to maintain internal cohesion, assert its regional influence, and protect its core national interests will be severely tested. The success of this tightrope walk will determine not only Jordan’s future but also its continued role as a significant, albeit often overlooked, player in the intricate tapestry of the Middle East.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.