Paraguay’s fluctuating positions on Palestine: Between interests and justice

The influence of nations is not always determined by size or population, but by their ability to take decisions that resonate internationally. Paraguay, a small state in South America with about seven million inhabitants, has unexpectedly found itself entangled in Middle East politics. Over the past decade, it has oscillated between recognising Palestine in 2011, moving its embassy to Jerusalem, later reversing the decision, and then reinstating it in 2024.

This inconsistency stems from shifting governments, partisan struggles, pressure from the United States and Israel, and economic concerns related to energy and trade. Meanwhile, Paraguay’s Palestinian community, though limited in numbers and resources, continues to advocate for positions more aligned with international law and Palestinian rights.

Historical background and recent developments

Paraguay has a history shaped by major conflicts, most notably the War of the Triple Alliance in the 19th century, which left deep scars on its national memory. Today, it faces a different challenge: building diplomatic weight beyond its size while avoiding costly misalignment. Its 2011 recognition of Palestine on the 1967 borders was a bold step, part of a broader Latin American wave, yet it never developed into consistent policy. The 2018 embassy move to Jerusalem, followed by reversal, and then re-establishment in 2024, underscored this oscillation.

The fluctuation peaked on 12 September 2025, when Paraguay voted against a UN General Assembly resolution endorsing the New York Declaration on implementing the two-state solution. The vote highlighted the vulnerability of Paraguay’s symbolic commitments when confronted with domestic political shifts and the pressure of powerful allies.

Roots of oscillation: Domestic politics and external pressures

Paraguay’s foreign policy is closely tied to changes in government. President Horacio Cartes (2013–2018) deepened alignment with Washington and Tel Aviv by moving the embassy to Jerusalem. His successor, Mario Abdo Benítez, reversed the decision, seeking balance, while Santiago Peña, elected in 2023, restored it once again. This back-and-forth reflects how partisan competition translates directly into foreign policy shifts.

External pressures also weigh heavily. The United States leverages aid and alliances, while Israel offers lucrative security and economic cooperation, binding Paraguay closer to Washington’s orbit. This explains why a country that recognised Palestine can simultaneously vote against pro-Palestinian UN resolutions.

The Palestinian community in Paraguay: Limited but symbolic

Compared to Chile or Brazil, Paraguay’s Palestinian diaspora is small, but its significance is symbolic. Arriving in migration waves since the mid-20th century, Palestinians brought cultural and social traditions that remain visible. This history provides a foundation for a collective identity, even if their resources remain limited.

Today, their activities focus on cultural and humanitarian advocacy — social media campaigns, cultural events, and fundraising. While such initiatives raise awareness, they cannot alone counterbalance official policies shaped by international alliances. Still, the diaspora represents an essential bridge for maintaining Palestine as part of Paraguay’s national conversation.

Trade as a diplomatic lever

Trade is another dimension shaping Paraguay’s foreign policy. While commerce with Arab countries is modest compared to Brazil, it includes important sectors: cosmetics and essential oils from the UAE, petroleum and glass from Algeria, clothing from Jordan, and plastics from Tunisia. These links provide Arab states with potential leverage in encouraging more balanced Paraguayan positions.

The real pivot, however, is Brazil. The Itaipu Dam, providing nearly all Paraguay’s electricity and powering much of Brazil, is the clearest example of interdependence. Brazil is also Paraguay’s top trade partner and the main buyer of its agricultural exports. This structural dependency makes Paraguayan foreign policy sensitive to Brazil’s stance.

If Brasília promotes a discourse defending Palestinian rights, Paraguay faces pressure to avoid outright opposition, even if it does not fully align. Brazil, without coercion, can nudge Paraguay toward neutrality or abstention in international votes through a combination of economic incentives, regional coordination, and diplomatic signaling.

Recommendations

Strengthening solidarity with Palestine in Paraguay requires more than lobbying in New York. It is equally about reshaping narratives within Paraguayan society and leveraging regional alliances.

1. Narrative-building: Developing bilingual (Spanish–Arabic) media that documents the stories of Palestinian families in Paraguay could weave Palestine into the country’s collective memory. This cultural rooting elevates the issue from a foreign concern to part of Paraguay’s own national identity.
2. Civil society partnerships: Universities, unions, and churches can host cultural and humanitarian events that highlight justice and human rights, reframing Palestine as an ethical cause rather than a distant political debate.
3. Smart political pressure: Instead of expecting Paraguay to shift dramatically, efforts should aim to move its UN position from voting against Palestine to at least abstaining. Though symbolic, abstention reduces diplomatic harm and signals room for flexibility.
4. Regional engagement: Partnerships with Brazil and Argentina within Mercosur provide opportunities to encourage Paraguay toward moderation. If its key partners adopt stronger pro-Palestinian tones, Paraguay will feel pressured to align, or at least soften its opposition.
5. Humanitarian diplomacy: Initiatives such as medical and food aid convoys under Paraguayan banners can create an emotional connection with Palestine, challenging the dominance of pro-Israel narratives.

Conclusion

Paraguay’s experience reveals the struggle of small states to reconcile principle with interest. Its 2011 recognition of Palestine was bold but inconsistent, as later shown by its shifting embassy decisions and its 2025 UN vote against the two-state solution. These contradictions highlight how external pressures and internal politics create fragile commitments.

Yet opportunities for influence remain. The Palestinian diaspora, though small, sustains cultural advocacy; Arab states can leverage economic ties; and Brazil, through structural interdependence, can quietly steer Paraguay toward moderation. Civil society and regional alliances further amplify these efforts, showing that the struggle is not only in diplomatic halls but also in shaping public narratives.

In short, Paraguay can shift from a wavering state to a steady and more reliable voice in supporting justice and the rights of the Palestinian people, if these elements are combined with wisdom and continuity.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.