The post-Assad dawn: Syria’s struggle to rise again

On 8 December, Syria marked the first anniversary of its liberation from the Baathist dictatorship that had dominated the country since 1971. The spark of opposition during the Arab Spring of 2011—initially suppressed by the Assad regime—grew into a popular tide that ultimately toppled one of the most entrenched authoritarian systems in the region.

One year on, the question that looms large is whether Syria’s new leadership under Ahmad al-Sharaa can convert the symbolic end of Assad’s rule into a substantive national recovery.

A nation emerging from devastation

Syria under Assad endured catastrophic loss: millions killed, displaced across borders, or trapped as refugees; thousands detained, disappeared or tortured; and entire provinces destroyed beyond recognition. The Sunni majority bore the harshest brunt of state repression.

By the time Assad’s regime collapsed, the economy had completely unravelled. Employment had sky-rocketed, sanctions suffocated the state, investment had dried up, and Syria had become isolated from the wider Arab world. The country functioned as a battleground for competing regional powers, particularly Iran and its rivals.

Despite overwhelming Sunni regional opposition, Assad survived for years mainly due to unwavering Iranian and Russian backing—an intervention that hollowed out Syria from within.

The fall of Assad therefore represented not just a political shift but an end to an era defined by militarism, sectarian coercion and foreign entanglement.

A new leadership facing old burdens

Although it is important to bear in mind that decades of destruction cannot be reversed in a year or so—it needs sustained and strategic efforts—making a judgemental analysis of the current regime’s moves is a bit of an injustice to the nascent leadership’s real capabilities.

In my view, ushering into this one year, the new leadership has taken the following promising steps:

Ahmad al-Sharaa has shown a vision to the Syrians. He showed them a dream of building Syria from scratch. The Syrian masses, after decades, have started dreaming of a prosperous Syria under a new leadership. He has given fresh aspirations to the people—an ambition to rebuild the ruined country. A preliminary observation of social media easily reveals that al-Sharaa has proved to be a beacon of hope in this bleak darkness, and the nation has started dreaming through him.

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Syria under al-Sharaa has shown remarkable patience in dealing with hostile actors within the country and at its borders. The leadership has shown patience in unifying the country through peaceful dialogue with various sectarian and religious groups, accommodating their concerns, and largely shunning violent means, even after becoming the central or federal authority. This includes showing strategic patience in dealing with other rebel groups as well as religious and linguistic minorities.

The bloodshed in the province of Suwayda is real, but even there, Syrian central forces preferred strategic peace over futile fighting. The leadership has also shown remarkable maturity in dealing with consistent Israeli bullying, attacks, and state terrorism in the name of national security. Although Syria does not have the capacity to wage war with Israel, the strategic patience shown by the incumbent leadership—prioritising national stability over violent engagement—is a step in the right direction.

Syria has long been a converging ground for intra-Sunni groups, even during the peak of intra-Sunni divisions during the Arab Spring. Brotherhood-supporting countries like Türkiye and Qatar, and anti-Islamic movement countries like Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states played significant roles in helping anti-Assad opposition groups.

Although the Arab League had mistakenly given some leeway to Assad a few years back, Türkiye’s stern stand remained persistent.

Ahmad al-Shraa’s new government acknowledged the role and help of all these countries. Here again, he showed remarkable balance and maturity—acknowledging their contributions without falling into any one camp.

He acknowledged the role of Türkiye, praised Saudi Arabia for its vital role in ending Syria’s international isolation and lifting American sanctions, and acknowledged Qatar and Saudi Arabia for pouring money into rebuilding Syria. He has shown intent to remain in harmony with all Middle Eastern monarchies and military regimes without taking sides in intra-Sunni divisions.

Al-Sharaa brought in from the cold: He has undergone some transformation in substance and ideas. He has helped Syria gain international recognition; the UN lifted terrorism tags against him. The entire securitisation of him has been removed. His consistent diplomatic engagement, supported by influential Saudi and Turkish lobbying, has earned him a place in Washington and, therefore, in global forums like the UN. Canada has removed the terrorism designation against him recently, and a general amnesty is being granted to the master of the fate of the new Syria.

One year after Assad, Syria—under a new leadership—is ambitiously dreaming of a beautiful future. It is trying to recover from deep wounds, focusing on reconstruction, avoiding unnecessary confrontation, and showing strategic patience with Israeli bullying and domestic hostile actors.

Syria today is finely balancing relations between regional heavyweights like Saudi Arabia and Türkiye—countries once at odds due to intra-Sunni division after the 2011 Arab Spring—and is gaining support from both. Internationally, it is gaining a favourable diplomatic position with a sharp, pragmatic, and ambitious leadership.

Still, the vision, ambition, and aspirations are only a beacon of hope. The path ahead is full of challenges. The future of Syria’s reconstruction depends on mending its hollowed-out economy, attracting investment into a conducive atmosphere, focusing on reconstruction by keeping all major stakeholders in the loop, and forging a new social contract where the people’s will is not suppressed by the dominance of an oligarchy.

The future ahead is promising—but full of challenges. The new leaders of Syria must make sure that hope leads to strong institutions, fair government, and real national reconciliation. 

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.