UN official says one million refugees could return to Syria by 2026

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) expects around one million Syrian refugees to return to their country by 2026, amid what it described as a gradual recovery following the fall of the Assad regime.

In an interview with Anadolu Agency, Gonzalo Vargas Llosa, the UNHCR representative in Syria, said approximately 1.3 million Syrian refugees have returned to the country since December 2024. He added that around two million internally displaced people have also gone back to their areas of origin.

Vargas Llosa said this means more than three million Syrians have returned to their homes in a relatively short period, despite the country being devastated by years of war that severely damaged its economy, infrastructure and basic services.

The UN official said he had been in Syria several months before the collapse of the previous regime and witnessed the political transition firsthand. He noted that the fear that had long dominated Syrian society “quickly subsided and was replaced by a widespread sense of hope”.

He recalled that on 9 December 2024, he and his team travelled to the Lebanese border, where they observed thousands of Syrians returning spontaneously after more than 14 years of forced displacement.

Looking ahead, Vargas Llosa said that since 8 December 2024, most refugee returns have come from Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, with smaller numbers returning from Egypt and Iraq.

“Our estimates indicate that 2026 could see the return of an additional one million people,” he said, “meaning that more than four million Syrians will have returned within a two-year period.”

He warned, however, that the large-scale return is taking place under extremely difficult conditions, stressing that international financial support is urgently needed to ensure stability and prevent the humanitarian situation from deteriorating further.