Trump’s diversion: Why Venezuela’s oil is the ultimate

Washington didn’t abruptly discover Nicolás Maduro on 3 January. It didn’t suddenly open its eyes to Venezuela’s narcotics and corruption. It chose this opportunity to apprehend Maduro because of the nexus of four compelling forces: a reborn Monroe Doctrine mentality, the lust to control Venezuela’s oil, Trump’s plummeting approval rating, and the US Supreme Court’s decision ordering Trump’s accounting firm to disclose the required financial records.

Hours after the operation, President Trump announced that the US would be “very strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil sector. “Narco-terrorism” is such an effective way of validating the use of brute force. The bigger question is what exactly America will do with a country that sits atop the world’s largest known oil reserves.

The Monroe Doctrine is not some antique curio in the national closet. It is the ideological bedrock of US power in the southern hemisphere: Latin America as “our” neighborhood, “our” sphere, “our” right to reorder. In 2019, the national security adviser of President Donald Trump, John Bolton, publicly stated the quiet part: “Today, we proudly proclaim for all to hear: the Monroe Doctrine is alive and well.” 

There is a reason for that history that explains the choreography: the buildup, strikes, capture, and then the oil’s involvement. In a series of stories carried through March, Reuters has documented “months of mounting pressure,” including a Venezuelan oil blockade and seizures that have led to a sharp cutback in exports. 

READ: Trump says Venezuela’s Maduro captured, flown out of country after ‘large scale’ US strikes

And then there is timing. The Trump administration needed to focus the eyes and minds of the American people on blowing up cocaine boats. The kidnapping operation comes at a time when Trump’s popularity has been sliding rapidly downward in polls. A big overseas “triumph” is the oldest trick in the imperial book: creating clarity overseas while wiping out discontent at home. The raid has a satisfying finale. But governance has none. It is about images of strong leadership, flags, and TV victory, rather than inflation, courts, Congressional battles, and that terrible, torturous question voters inevitably pose: What about me?

Which brings us to the most uncomfortable motive: money, records, and exposure.

Trump has been resisting transparency and refusing to release his financial records for years. The Supreme Court of the United States, ruling on Trump v. Vance, overturned Trump’s contention of absolute immunity from state criminal process, granting instead that as far as any request for personal papers is concerned, “a President’s task is ‘nearly the same situation’ as any other person.” This particular ruling concerned papers requested from his accounting firm related to a grand jury investigation in New York. The message is clear: nobody is above the law. In 2019, the Attorney General of the state of New York reported that the courts ordered President Trump to pay compensation for his charitable abuse. The case reveals that President Trump resists transparency until compelled to do so.

Such a Venezuela “caper” helps. It also serves a second role for a Venezuelan issue: it provides a prop for a tale of immigration. Reuters highlighted Trump’s moves to effectively nullify the legal status of a massive number of Venezuelan immigrants while advocating a hard line on this issue. A captured Maduro could shore up a claim to act against “chaos.” 

READ: Trump administration’s military strikes on Venezuela ‘illegal,’ say US Democratic lawmakers

But what about the drug rationale itself?

The problem is not that there is no truth to the Venezuelan trafficking allegations. The problem is that there is not enough. If this were a law enforcement matter, we would be discussing multi-national extradition agreements, Interpol routes, and cooperation among regional courts. However, there was a military action in Caracas, and military special forces extricated the country’s president. When you are using a hammer as a tool, every problem looks like a nail. When you are using a special operations Extraction tool, you are not using it for justice. You are using it for power.

The keener lens is this: Venezuela is where Trump can reclaim hegemony in the Americas, take down his enemies, redirect the flow of oil, and provide him with a television-ready win. The ‘drugs’ narrative provides cover; the promise of oil is the giveaway.

There is one other telling detail in the media reporting. Reuters reported that the Venezuelan oil infrastructure was remarkably untouched during the strike. This implies planning and intention. You do not go to war to destroy the thing that you actually get to control, influence, and be “strongly involved in.”

Maduro’s arrest is less about the war on drugs and has much more to do with the Monroe Doctrine, with an oil undertone. Of course, this is a reminder to Latin America that Washington still has the backbone to decide who rules the region. It is also a reminder to the energy market that Washington can shift the pipeline. Moreover, it is a reminder to Trump to give thanks because Trump operates not on paper trails or ledgers but on blockbuster moments.

The tragedy is not Venezuelan sovereignty, or South American stability, or the precedent that is being set. The tragedy is the cynicism. If the United States is serious about ending the suffering of the Venezuelan people, it has had years to promote institutions, not stunts. But institutions don’t go viral. Stunts do. 

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.