Somaliland: An Israeli dagger in Egypt’s side

Signs of mounting risk are emerging as Israel moves to formally recognise Somaliland as an independent, sovereign state — a step that has prompted widespread Arab and international condemnation and heightened regional concern.

The territory, which declared its secession from Somalia in 1991, is poised to become a focal point for regional competition, and potentially an arena for Israeli–Egyptian, Israeli–Turkish, and Egyptian–Ethiopian rivalry over influence in the Red Sea.

Israel’s sudden initiative has raised serious fears of the militarisation of the region, while prompting questions about its potential repercussions, the objectives behind the move, and whether Somaliland is being positioned as a platform for Tel Aviv’s activities in the Horn of Africa.

Israeli targets

The war on Gaza exposed Israel’s targets, as Houthi missile attacks completely shut down the port of Eilat, bringing all activity at Israel’s only sea outlet on the Red Sea to a halt.

In light of this, Tel Aviv is seeking to reposition itself in a geographically small yet highly significant location, given Somaliland’s control of around 460 miles of coastline along the Gulf of Aden and its control over the strategic port of Berbera — operated by DP World — making it the southern gateway to the Bab al-Mandab Strait on the Red Sea.

This repositioning would allow Tel Aviv to expand its influence in Somaliland, and particularly along the Red Sea coast, as a potential intelligence and military base, to confront Egypt’s growing influence in Somalia, attempt to contain Turkish influence in the Horn of Africa, and support its Ethiopian ally in controlling the sources of the Nile and in the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam with the downstream states, Egypt and Sudan.

Iran also figures in the background. From Israel’s perspective, the focus is on safeguarding its long-term strategic interests: securing commercial shipping and international sea lanes to the port of Eilat; containing the Houthi threat in Yemen, backed by Tehran; curbing the group’s ballistic missile capability at close range; and limiting the impact and reach of Iran’s presence in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

Israeli military sources say Somaliland offers multiple options for Tel Aviv’s “long arm” — a reference to the Israeli air force — according to the Hebrew daily Maariv.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud revealed, in an interview with Al Jazeera, that the breakaway region had accepted three Israeli conditions in exchange for recognition. These include the establishment of an Israeli military base on the Gulf of Aden coast, permission for the settlement of Palestinians, and accession to normalisation agreements.

Somaliland’s geopolitical location has drawn the interest of several regional powers, foremost among them Israel, amid competition over influence and the shaping of security and strategic alliances. This lends Israeli recognition particular significance, one that is likely to be translated into subsequent military and economic steps. Such developments could point to the emergence of a maritime alliance between Israel, Ethiopia and Somaliland — a scenario that poses a threat to Egypt’s national security and could become a dagger at Cairo’s side.

READ: Somalia’s president says Somaliland agreed to resettle Palestinians, host Israeli base for recognition

Widespread rejection

The move by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was met with widespread rejection from the Arab League, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and both the African and European unions, on the grounds that it violates Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity. Twenty African and Middle Eastern states also issued a joint statement rejecting Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.

Days earlier, an emergency session of the UN Security Council was convened to address the latest developments. During the meeting, Somalia’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Abubakar Osman, called for the Israeli decision to be condemned, stating that his country “categorically rejects any unilateral recognition of the breakaway Somaliland region and considers the Israeli move a violation of Somalia’s sovereignty, territorial unity, and international law”.

The Security Council meeting did not result in a clear condemnation of Israel’s unilateral and unprecedented recognition of the breakaway region. However, the Council reaffirmed its respect for Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, in line with Resolution 2809 adopted last week. US President Donald Trump also declined to provide international cover for the move, announcing his rejection of recognising Somaliland’s independence.

By contrast, Turkey’s response was the strongest in rejecting the move and the most forceful in its reaction. It included hosting Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud in Istanbul late last month, alongside an announcement by the Turkish president of plans to begin offshore energy exploration off the Somali coast this year, and to establish a spaceport in Somalia for the launch and reception of spacecraft, under the agreements signed between Ankara and Mogadishu.

Ankara enjoys a position of strategic latitude, underpinned by a framework agreement on defence and economic cooperation signed between Turkey and Somalia in February 2024 for a ten-year term. The agreement allows for the planning and execution of joint air, land and naval operations, as well as unilateral and joint measures to counter all forms of threats in sovereign maritime zones, including terrorism, piracy, looting, illegal fishing and smuggling. It also grants the Turkish navy full rights to use existing Somali ports and to establish new ports and naval military bases.

Turkey had already opened its largest overseas military base in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, in 2017. It provides training for the Somali army and police and deploys elements of its armed forces on Somali territory.

Cairo’s options

Egypt is among the most prominent opponents of recognising the Somaliland region, for several reasons. These include preserving Somalia’s unity and territorial integrity; rejecting unilateral measures that threaten regional and international peace and security; denying Israel a foothold along one of the world’s most important maritime routes; thwarting plans to settle Palestinians in the breakaway region; and keeping Ethiopia landlocked, preventing it from gaining maritime access via Somaliland.

Cairo has several tools at its disposal to confront the Israeli move and derail a potential Israeli–Ethiopian alliance in Somaliland. These include broad diplomatic mobilisation and the coordination of Egyptian, Turkish and Arab positions, alongside the African Union, in a manner that reinforces Somalia’s unity and denies the breakaway region any further steps towards recognition by other capitals, according to Africa affairs researcher Sofyan Mohamed.

READ: Israel’s decision to recognize Somaliland illegitimate, unacceptable: Turkish President Erdogan

Days earlier, the foreign ministers of Egypt, Turkey, Somalia and Djibouti stressed, in a joint statement, their support for Somalia’s legitimate state institutions and their rejection of any attempts to impose parallel entities that undermine the unity of the Somali state.

Egyptian moves may escalate towards measures aimed at strengthening its military presence in the Red Sea or adjacent areas to ensure regional stability, and at forming alliances with other states that share the same concerns, such as Somalia, Djibouti and Eritrea. This could undermine Israeli plans to exploit Somaliland’s access to the Red Sea, according to political analyst Mohamed Gamal.

Military Response

The strategic partnership agreement between Egypt and Somalia, signed in August 2024, allows for the exchange of information, the provision of military support to Mogadishu, counter-terrorism cooperation, the securing of land and maritime borders, and the extension of Somali state control over its entire territory, according to the official website of the Egyptian presidency.

Egyptian forces — numbering 1,091 troops and including senior officers and special units — are deployed as part of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

Under the partnership agreement, Cairo could disrupt Israeli calculations by encouraging Somalia to launch a military operation to end Somaliland’s secession. The breakaway region maintains its own army and police force but suffers from political and economic isolation. While such an option is unlikely, it remains on the table.

Egypt has an extensive range of options. Among them is the establishment of intelligence, military and logistical arrangements with Turkey to secure Somalia’s strategic hinterland, strip the Israeli move of its substance, and neutralise any potential Israeli influence in the Red Sea.

Egypt’s national security equations are rooted in rejecting any presence by non-littoral states in the Red Sea and along the coasts facing the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. This may compel Cairo to reposition itself not only in Somalia, but across the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea region, in order to protect its southern flank and remove the new Israeli dagger.

OPINION: Egypt targets its opponents abroad

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.