The paralysis before the storm: How fear of war may guarantee one

The corridors of the Pentagon and the Iranian camps are shrouded in a strange silence. This is not the silence of intent but of an impending conflict, acknowledging that the next attack in the Middle East may set off a chain reaction that war game planners are unsure of.

The questions that loom large in the region are straightforward: When will the second American-Israeli operation take place? What is President Trump waiting for to unleash the full fury of the American juggernaut? Has Iran, once the central fixation of his administration, fallen lower in the list of priorities that now includes Venezuela and Greenland?

But beneath these tactical questions lies a far more ominous truth. “Restraint” may actually be a code word for paralysis born not of tactical calculation but of the chilling knowledge of all sides possessing weapons they hesitate to use.

The arithmetic of unaffordable victory

While acknowledging that war games conducted by the U.S. Defense Department have consistently shown that America has overwhelming kinetic power to destroy Iranian infrastructure, power grid, communications network, and command centers, it is what happens on Day Two, or Day Twelve, that defies prediction. 

This is the kind of uncertainty that clouds planning meetings. The June strike wave continued for twelve days. But Iran may be able to launch a massive number of supersonic missiles against Israeli cities and U.S. bases throughout the Gulf region. And no one knows how long the next round of conflict might last, whether in the Situation Room, the Israeli security cabinet, or Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.

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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel is making his own assessment of the situation. With elections approaching in May, he needs to prove his strength, no matter how symbolic this strength may be. However, Israeli military leaders increasingly acknowledge the fact that in the event of a real war, the result would not be victory but exhaustion. The only possible outcome of a conflict of this type would strain Israel’s defense systems to the limit.

As for Iran, it has learned a painful truth: it can withstand an attack, even use it as an indication of its toughness and resilience. However, it cannot withstand a prolonged war. It is under crippling economic sanctions, struggling with succession issues, and suffering from a demoralized public. Iran can take a punch, but can’t go fifteen rounds.

The golden bridge to nowhere

However, the recent stay of execution by Iran’s Supreme Leader not to execute hundreds of protesters, followed by Trump’s decision to put off a strike, represented a “golden bridge” opportunity for retreat that Sun Tzu would approve of. Both sides took it.

This is not détente. This is deferred detonation.

The regional balance has reached a paradoxical stalemate: everyone has weapons, battle experience, and is ready to shoot, yet it is precisely this weaponry that keeps them in a stalemate. The Gulf countries understand that in a globally-connected economy, there is no such thing as a limited regional conflict. Iran has what amounts to a Samson Option to wreak havoc even in defeat. Israel has overwhelming conventional superiority but is threatened by Hezbollah’s missile stocks and a multi-front conflict.

The situation is especially pressing for Washington. Retreat means loss of international credibility. However, escalation might destroy not only the Iranian but also the entire post-WWII architecture of American power in the Middle East. This is not a choice between war and peace, but a choice between catastrophic options.

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When stillness becomes the danger

History shows that some of the most explosive outcomes are preceded by prolonged moments of apparent calm, in which pent-up tension passes for control. The July Crisis of 1914 began with an assassination and culminated in a continental conflagration due to miscalculation by the leadership.

The current confrontation in the Middle East has elements of explosive intensity similar to those in past clashes. The current confrontation is a test of perception and signals, not a test of hardware. A single miscalculation, such as a zealous field commander, a piece of misinformation accepted without checking, or a misunderstood message in a world of cyber warfare, could upset the delicate balance.

Thus, Trump’s equation of bombast and power and Iran’s equation of survival and success become mutually reinforcing delusions. Each requires the standoff as proof of relevance at home. Each is mistaken about the other’s caution, thinking it is evidence of the other’s weakness, and not, in fact, recognition of the mutual constraints.

The illusion of control

The illusion that American officials have dubbed “strategic patience” and what Iranian officials have called “strategic resilience” could be the same thing: involuntary paralysis masquerading as strategy. 

But the truth is that it has precipitated an existential crisis for all sides. In a bygone era, a pre-emptive attack meant dominance. Now it means implosion. Middle East chaos, with millions made displaced, nuclear proliferation well underway, and American prestige wagered on an unwinnable occupation. 

Time is running out. But this time is not leading to a solution. It leads to the question of when paralysis ends, and when this occurs, the initial mistake is sure to be the last opportunity before a disaster follows. In the end, this is not a test of arms. This is a test of whether leaders can recognize the difference between appearance and reality, between stillness and safety. Thus far, there is little to indicate they can.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.