Trump, Tehran, and the trial: The countdown to the unknown begins

Benjamin Netanyahu is facing the battle of his life in Israel’s general election set for May, with his liberty at stake. Israel’s longest-serving prime minister is trapped in a high-stakes balancing act, weighing his legal battles and the risk of imprisonment against the stability of his fragile coalition.

The legal noose tightens

Netanyahu’s legal woes, however, remain his biggest existential threat. He is charged with bribery, fraud, and breach of trust in three different cases, dubbed Case 1000, Case 2000, and Case 4000. The charges include accepting expensive gifts, including champagne and cigars, from businesspeople; colluding with businesspeople to secure favourable media coverage in exchange for regulatory perks for telecommunications companies; and seeking to control news coverage by making backroom deals with newspaper publishers.

The trial has been a long-drawn-out process, but it seems to be leading to a conclusive end. According to legal experts, if Netanyahu is found guilty on all charges, he might face a maximum sentence of ten years’ imprisonment. For a 76-year-old man, this would mean a life sentence, considering he has been a dominant force in Israeli politics over the last three decades. Netanyahu appears determined to retain power at any cost, utilizing every available lever of influence to ensure he remains a free man. While in office, he can leverage his authority to pursue legislative remedies, influence prosecutorial leniency, or secure a presidential pardon—avenues that vanish the moment he loses the premiership.

A coalition on the brink

The cracks within the Netanyahu uneasy coalition, comprising incompatible parties, seem to be deepening. The ultra-Orthodox parties, which Netanyahu cannot do without to build a majority coalition, insist that their yeshiva students be exempted from military service. This infuriates the rest of the country, which sees the ultra-Orthodox refusing to contribute to the country’s defense even in its hour of need, with threats looming on all fronts. Those who risk their children’s lives on the front lines do not want to subsidize those who do nothing to help defend the country.

Meanwhile, the far-right nationalist elements of the ruling coalition, such as those advocating aggressive settlement growth in the West Bank, pose problems for Israel’s international relations. The finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and the national security minister, Itamar Ben-Gvir, represent constituencies that consider any land concession a betrayal, but they also alienate the moderate vote, which is so important to Israel’s relations with the United States.

The National Unity party and the centrists, who previously gave Netanyahu the benefit of the doubt, now appear exhausted by the years of political turmoil and government ineptitude. Current polls indicate that Netanyahu’s Likud party retains a hard core of loyalists returning 25-27 seats, but building the critical 61-seat coalition in the 120-seat Knesset seems a daunting challenge. Opposition leaders Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, who previously failed to mount a united challenge, now believe they have a genuine opportunity to end the Netanyahu era.

The Trump card

The return of Donald Trump to the White House brought a fascinating international dimension into Netanyahu’s electoral calculations. Netanyahu may expect diplomatic support and even intervention on his side. The Israeli prime minister and the American president had a perfect relationship during the first term of the American president. This was due to their conservative values and the unprecedented pro-Israeli moves by the American president, including the declaration of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the American embassy, and signing the Abraham Accords with Arab countries.

Netanyahu may be depending on Trump to provide public support, apply pressure on Israeli opposition politicians, or deliver another public gesture, perhaps a new Middle East peace plan or a security commitment, to coincide with Netanyahu’s electoral chances. But one must not forget that Trump’s transactional nature has a flip side as well. If Netanyahu is viewed as a political liability or a losing bet, Trump has shown no qualms about dumping former friends. The only interest of the American president is his own electoral success, not Netanyahu’s.

The unthinkable scenarios

However, the most perplexing question remains whether Israeli President Isaac Herzog will use his constitutional power to pardon Netanyahu, bringing an end to the legal quagmire that has dominated Israeli politics for the last couple of years. Although this remains a legal possibility, the resulting fallout would likely engulf Israel in a deep constitutional crisis. President Herzog, who has managed to remain apolitical, will face a storm of criticism for subverting the rule of law and destroying the independence of the Israeli judicial system. The result, Israeli legal scholars warn, Herzog’s decision will likely prove to be more harmful to Israeli democracy than the conviction of the former Israeli Prime Minister.

The second scenario is even more sinister: could Netanyahu, on the brink of electoral defeat, deliberately heighten military tensions with Iran to mobilize support among nationalists to postpone the election? While such theories are often dismissed as conspiratorial, the reality remains that Netanyahu has spent years framing Iran as an existential threat and commands the military and intelligence apparatus necessary to catalyse a crisis. A military operation against Iran could unite Israelis behind their brave leader at a time when it makes no sense to hold an election during a time of crisis.

This would represent a cynical deployment of national security for the sake of survival. However, in light of the high stakes involved—the very continuation of power versus a jail sentence—some cannot dismiss it as impossible. This stems from Netanyahu’s track record of pushing political boundaries and strategically utilizing every available resource to maintain his grip on power. Israel’s election in May is more than a routine democratic election. The situation has evolved into a referendum on whether a single leader’s fate should determine a nation’s future, whether his legal entanglements should compromise national security, and whether a democracy can endure a figure willing to push every boundary to evade accountability. The Israeli public has a choice: continuity with a tainted but proven leader or seek change and an unknown future with leaders from the opposition who lack Netanyahu’s international standing and military credentials. The choice for Netanyahu himself may be simple: victory means freedom; loss means going to prison. When a man has everything to lose, the rest of the world holds its breath.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.