From proxy war to Gulf rivalry: Yemen’s new battle for influence

For more than a decade, Yemen has been viewed primarily through the lens of a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Tehran’s support for the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led military intervention launched in 2015 transformed the country into one of the Middle East’s most visible arenas of geopolitical competition. The conflict came to symbolize a broader struggle for regional influence between two rival powers seeking to shape the political order of the Arab world.

That interpretation remains relevant, but it is increasingly insufficient. While the Houthis continue to dominate much of northern Yemen and Iran remains an important player, the dynamics shaping the country’s future are changing. A new competition is emerging within the Gulf itself, and Yemen has become one of its principal battlegrounds.

Today, the central contest is no longer solely between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It increasingly involves Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two states that once stood side by side in the same military coalition but now pursue different visions for Yemen’s future.

The shift is significant because it reflects a broader transformation in Middle Eastern politics. Regional competition is no longer driven only by ideological divides, sectarian narratives, or traditional rivalries. It is increasingly shaped by economic interests, maritime security, trade routes, and competing ambitions for regional leadership.

When Saudi Arabia assembled a coalition to restore the internationally recognised government in 2015, the UAE emerged as one of its most active and capable partners. Both governments shared a common objective: rolling back Houthi advances and preventing what they viewed as expanding Iranian influence on the Arabian Peninsula.

For years, this partnership appeared remarkably solid. Yet beneath the surface, important differences were already emerging.

Saudi Arabia has long viewed Yemen through the prism of national security. The Kingdom shares an extensive border with Yemen and has repeatedly experienced the consequences of instability emanating from its southern neighbour. Riyadh’s preferred outcome has therefore been relatively straightforward: a stable and unified Yemeni state capable of maintaining order while remaining within Saudi Arabia’s strategic orbit.

The UAE, however, approached Yemen from a different perspective. Abu Dhabi’s interests extended beyond the country’s internal political arrangements to encompass broader maritime and commercial considerations. Rather than focusing exclusively on state institutions in Sana’a, the UAE cultivated ties with local actors capable of securing strategic ports, coastal infrastructure, and shipping routes linking the Gulf to the Red Sea and East Africa.

This divergence became most visible through the UAE’s support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC), a political and military movement advocating greater autonomy for southern Yemen and, ultimately, independence.

While Saudi Arabia continued to support the preservation of Yemeni unity, the UAE invested heavily in actors whose ambitions often challenged that objective.

What initially appeared to be tactical disagreements gradually evolved into competing strategic projects.

Recent developments suggest that Saudi Arabia is attempting to reassert itself as the dominant external actor in Yemen. Political consultations hosted by Riyadh, efforts to coordinate anti-Houthi factions, and initiatives aimed at restructuring Yemen’s political landscape all point to a broader strategy: shaping the framework of a post-war political order under Saudi influence.

This marks an important transition in the conflict. The central question is no longer simply whether the Houthis can be defeated or whether Iranian influence can be contained. Increasingly, the issue is which Gulf power will emerge as Yemen’s primary external patron and political architect.

The importance of this competition becomes clearer when viewed through the lens of geography.

Yemen occupies one of the world’s most strategic locations. Overlooking the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, it sits astride a critical maritime corridor linking the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. A significant share of global trade and energy shipments depends on the security of this route.

The strategic significance of the waterway has become even more apparent since the outbreak of the Gaza war. Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted shipping routes, forced many companies to reroute vessels around Africa, and increased transportation costs worldwide. What happens in Yemen no longer affects only the Arabian Peninsula; it has become a matter of global economic concern.

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For the UAE, influence in Yemen complements its wider strategy of building maritime connectivity across the Gulf, the Red Sea and East Africa through a network of ports and logistics hubs. Securing access to key coastal areas in southern Yemen aligns naturally with Abu Dhabi’s long-term economic and geopolitical objectives.

Saudi Arabia’s interests are equally substantial. Vision 2030 depends on secure maritime routes and regional stability. As the Kingdom seeks to transform itself into a global investment and logistics hub, developments around the Red Sea and Bab Al-Mandab have become an economic as well as a security imperative.

Consequently, the competition unfolding in Yemen is not merely about influence in Sana’a or Aden. It is about shaping the future of one of the world’s most important geopolitical crossroads.

The implications extend far beyond Yemen itself.

Across the Middle East, Gulf states are increasingly acting as autonomous regional powers with distinct strategic agendas. While external actors such as the United States, China, and Russia continue to play important roles, regional governments are no longer waiting for great-power decisions to determine outcomes. Instead, they are actively projecting influence through investments, infrastructure projects, diplomatic initiatives, and security partnerships.

This trend can be observed not only in Yemen but also in Sudan, Libya, and the Horn of Africa. Gulf capitals are competing for access to ports, trade corridors, energy infrastructure, and political partnerships that can strengthen their regional standing. Economic statecraft and maritime strategy are becoming increasingly important tools of influence.

As a result, the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East is becoming more complex. Traditional frameworks centred on Sunni-Shia rivalry or Arab-Iranian competition still matter, but they no longer explain the full picture. The region is increasingly shaped by competition among Gulf states themselves, each pursuing its own vision of regional order and economic integration.

Yemen offers perhaps the clearest example of this transformation.

The country remains deeply fragmented. The Houthis continue to control large areas in the north, while anti-Houthi forces remain divided despite repeated attempts at political coordination. Economic collapse, humanitarian hardship, and institutional weakness continue to undermine prospects for lasting peace.

In such circumstances, external actors inevitably exercise considerable influence. Saudi Arabia’s efforts to consolidate anti-Houthi factions may help reduce fragmentation and create conditions for greater stability. Yet they also raise questions about the extent to which Yemen can exercise genuine sovereignty if key political arrangements remain dependent on external sponsorship.

The same dilemma applies to Emirati involvement. Local partnerships may provide security and economic opportunities, but they can also deepen reliance on foreign patrons. For Yemen, the challenge is not merely ending the war but ensuring that peace does not produce a different form of dependency.

This is why the transition from proxy war to Gulf rivalry matters.

Yemen may be moving beyond the phase in which Saudi Arabia and Iran dominated the strategic narrative, but it is not necessarily moving toward full sovereignty. Instead, it is becoming the arena for a new competition among Gulf powers pursuing different visions of regional order and economic connectivity.

Understanding Yemen today therefore requires looking beyond the familiar language of proxy warfare. The country has become a test case for a changing Middle East in which influence is increasingly measured not only by military power or ideology, but also by control over trade routes, infrastructure and political networks.

As Gulf powers expand their ambitions, Yemen remains at the centre of a regional transformation whose consequences will extend far beyond its borders. The struggle for Yemen’s future is no longer simply about ending a war. It is about determining who will shape the next political and economic order in one of the world’s most strategically important regions.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.