Poll shows Israeli opposition ahead of Netanyahu’s bloc after deadlock

A new opinion poll showed Israel’s opposition ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc in the Knesset, with 57 seats against 51 if general elections were held on Friday, Anadolu reports.

The poll, conducted by the private Lazar Research Institute on a random sample of 600 Israelis with a 4.4% margin of error, came a day after a separate survey showed both camps tied at 53 seats each.

According to the latest poll, neither camp would be able to reach the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government, Israeli daily Maariv reported.

The results come ahead of general elections scheduled for Oct. 27, amid intense competition over the shape of political blocs and the premiership.

Jewish opposition parties would win 57 seats if elections were held today, compared with 51 for the bloc supporting Netanyahu, Maariv said.

Arab lawmakers would win 12 seats in the 120-seat Knesset.

A Channel 13 poll published Thursday showed Netanyahu’s camp and the opposition tied at 53 seats each, with Arab parties receiving 14 seats.

The latest results shift the bloc map from a tie to a six-seat lead for the opposition within one day, but neither camp secures a governing majority.

Most leaders of Jewish opposition parties say they refuse to rely on Arab lawmakers to form a government.

Bloc shifts

Maariv said Netanyahu’s coalition bloc strengthened to 51 seats for the first time since May.

It said the opposition bloc dropped by two seats to 57, while Arab parties lost one seat.

The daily attributed the rise in Netanyahu’s bloc to the far-right Religious Zionism party, led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, crossing the electoral threshold with five seats.

The far-right Your People Israel party, led by Ofer Winter, also received four seats.

According to Maariv, the opposition remains four seats short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

But the newspaper noted that Religious Zionism and Your People Israel are still at risk of failing to cross the electoral threshold, which could change the seat map.

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Seat map

In Netanyahu’s camp, Likud received 20 seats, while Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party won eight.

The religious parties United Torah Judaism and Shas received seven seats each, Religious Zionism five, and Your People Israel four.

In the opposition, Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, came first with 23 seats.

The Together party, led by former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, received 15 seats, while the Democrats party, led by Yair Golan, got 10, and Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu won nine.

Among Arab parties, the Joint List received seven seats, while the United Arab List (Ra’am), led by Mansour Abbas, won five.

Premiership race

Eisenkot and Bennett also continued to be ahead of Netanyahu in the race to become prime minister.

Some 48% of respondents preferred Eisenkot as prime minister, compared with 39% for Netanyahu, while 13% were undecided.

In a separate matchup, 43% preferred Bennett, compared with 39% for Netanyahu, while 15% were undecided.

Thursday’s Channel 13 poll also showed Eisenkot ahead of Netanyahu, 47% to 37%.

Fear of war

In another result, 55% of Israelis said they fear another war between Israel and Iran in the near future.

By contrast, 39% said they do not fear such a war, while 6% were undecided.

Genocide on Gaza

The poll also showed division over whether there was “internal betrayal” during the events of October 2023.

Some 44% said they do not believe there was “internal betrayal,” while 40% said they believe there was, and 16% were undecided.

By political affiliation, 61% of coalition voters believed there had been “internal betrayal,” while 64% of opposition voters said no such thing had happened.

Israel, backed by the US, launched its genocide in Gaza on Oct. 8, 2023, killing 73,470 Palestinians and injuring 174,540 as of Thursday, while victims remain under the rubble and on roads that rescue teams cannot reach.

Israel’s general elections are scheduled for Oct. 27 and are seen as decisive for Netanyahu’s political future, as he faces accusations of corruption, authoritarianism, and failure.

The current government, described as the most right-wing in Israel’s history, has been led since late December 2022 by Netanyahu, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court on charges of war crimes in the Gaza Strip.

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