Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Mahan Abedin
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Mysterious tanker incidents reinforce Iran’s deterrent power
A mysterious attack on an Israeli-linked oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman has significantly raised tensions in the region, not only between Iran and Israel, but also involving the former and leading Western powers, the US and Britain. The incident on 29 July was followed by another equally...
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Iran’s presidential election has serious implications for the international community
The Islamic Republic of Iran will hold its 13th presidential election tomorrow, Friday, amid an economic crisis compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic. While the Western media and think tanks have already decided that the result is a foregone conclusion, the inescapable fact is that such elections are unpredictable. This...
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Why Iran can live without a nuclear deal
The ongoing talks in Vienna (Austria) between Iran and the P4 + 1 group of countries to revive the nuclear deal, otherwise known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), has revived hopes of a wider thaw in relations between Iran and the United States. Most of the international...
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Iran’s move towards China will have global ramifications
The decision by Iran and China to embark on what amounts to a 25-year strategic partnership has touched off a flurry of analysis and speculation around the world. The agreement – which has yet to be formalised – is set to transform Iran’s foreign policy outlook by triggering a...
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Britain should avoid playing the role of spoiler in Gulf crisis
Tensions between Iran and the US are heating up, as demonstrated by this week’s proceedings at the United Nations General Assembly. The Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, refused to engage in pointless theatrical diplomacy by meeting with US President, Donald Trump. The failed French-led initiative to engineer a meeting between Rouhani and...
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Why Iran and Britain are heading for a crash
The decision by the Gibraltar authorities to release supertanker Grace 1 will slightly ease tensions between Britain and Iran, but not for long. Relations between the two states have been steadily deteriorating for the past eight months and the fear is that they will collapse altogether, as they have done...
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Why Iraq cannot act as a bridge between Iran and the US
The recent sharp increase in tension between Iran and the United States has prompted a flurry of reporting and commentary talking up the prospect of a military confrontation between the two powers. Much of the analysis is focussed on the Persian Gulf – and specifically the Strait of Hormuz –...
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Israel’s tunnel operation on Lebanon border betrays its weakened position
Israel’s operation on the Lebanese border earlier this month to destroy cross-border tunnels, has once again raised the temperature in that most volatile part of the Levant. By accusing the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah of digging the tunnels, in what the Israelis frame as a “grave” violation of their sovereignty,...
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Qatar’s decision to quit OPEC raises doubts about the future of the oil cartel
The decision by the State of Qatar to leave the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by January 2019 has raised eyebrows and set off speculation as to the extent of tensions and discord within the 15-member intergovernmental organisation. The dominant analysis centres on Qatar’s spat with Saudi Arabia...
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Can Yemen survive the proposed ceasefire?
As pressure grows for a ceasefire in Yemen it seems likely that there will be some form of de-escalation soon, if not a full-fledged ceasefire. Indeed, a modest de-escalation has already been affected as demonstrated by the Ansarullah movement’s (aka the Houthis) decision to stop missile and drone attacks...
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Iran needs a more comprehensive strategy against economic ‘crimes’
The execution of a man dubbed the “Sultan of Coins” and his accomplice has brought Iran’s fight against economic crimes and corruption into sharp relief. Vahid Mazloumin had been involved in the gold coins trade for three decades and on the face of it his execution reflects a steely...
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The US is not sincere about a ceasefire in Yemen
The call by the United States late last month for a ceasefire in Yemen initially raised hopes of a possible breakthrough in the nearly four-year old conflict. But even from the outset there were serious doubts about US intentions, not least as US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo placed...
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Bahrain set for greater instability as regional tensions mount
The sentencing of Bahraini opposition leader Sheikh Ali Salman to life in prison on charges of spying for Qatar is the latest sign of Bahrain’s continuing political crisis. Sheikh Ali Salman, who is secretary-general of the banned Al-Wefaq party, was sentenced alongside two leading members of the same group. These...
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Why Oman’s embrace of Israel is bad news
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s surprise visit to Oman last Friday has predictably elicited widespread favourable coverage on the Israeli media. Notwithstanding this fanfare, there is no denying that the visit marks a significant diplomatic victory for Israel as it further erodes the Jewish state’s isolation in the Middle...
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The diplomatic games overshadowing Khashoggi’s murder investigation
More than three weeks after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the criminal enquiry into his grisly death has been superseded by a complex set of diplomatic manoeuvrings involving several powerful states. At the heart of the dispute are Turkey and Saudi Arabia, with the former appearing to...
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Khashoggi’s disappearance presents PR opportunity for Iran
The disappearance and probable murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is proving to be the most significant public relations challenge for the House of Saud in living memory. The gravity of the crime – both in its conception and execution – makes it unlikely that the Saudis will be...
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Iran’s Khamenei sets down boundaries on foreign policy
“The enemy has failed to know you! The enemy has failed to know the Iranian nation! He does not know the Revolution or the revolutionary and faith-based spirit!”, proclaimed Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei to a gathering of Basij paramilitary forces on Thursday, October 4. In a typically combative fashion, the...
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Ahvaz terror attack points to deteriorating security in Iran
The terror attack in Iran’s south-western city of Ahvaz on 22 September has multiple local, national, regional and international layers in terms of causality and consequences. All point to an escalation of tension between Iran and its adversaries. The much-vaunted “retaliation” by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) against allegedly...
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Why the Idlib agreement won’t hold
A little over a week ago, Idlib was on the verge of a major assault by Syrian and Russian forces with the UN warning of potentially catastrophic consequences. However, a Russian-Turkish deal forged in the Black Sea resort of Sochi has spared the Syrian province from a major attack,...
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Sistani’s shadow role in Iraqi politics set to grow
Predictably the Iraqi political process has muddled along slowly and chaotically following May’s closely contested parliamentary elections. However, the appointment on Sunday of Muhammad Al-Halbusi as parliamentary speaker is a positive step in so far as it breaks the deadlock, albeit temporarily. But Al-Halbusi’s appointment also came as a surprise...
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Iran, US heading towards a clash in Iraq
The storming of the Iranian Consulate in Basra last Friday has dramatically demonstrated the simmering anti-Iranian feelings amongst some sections of Iraqi society. It has also exposed the extent to which the street protest movement in Iraq has been infused by geopolitical tension and motivations. Protestors in Basra and other...
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Idlib offensive set to deepen Iran-Russia divide in Syria
As the Syrian government prepares for a massive offensive to retake Idlib from an assortment of opposition groups, there are signs that the political and diplomatic shifts ensuing from this offensive may prove to be more important than its central military component. Widely described as the “last bastion” of the...
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Iran moves to counter US plans in Iraq
As the United States sets about pressuring the international community to comply with the American sanctions against Iran, one country, in particular, is proving hard to convince. As a friend to both Iran and the US, Iraq is caught between a rock and a hard place in trying to...
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Iranians are at sea over the new Caspian convention
Earlier this month, Iran and four ex-Soviet countries finally reached an agreement on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. By extension, they also agreed to set the foundation for the division of its abundant natural resources, including oil and gas. This belated agreement – the Convention on the Legal...