Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Mahan Abedin
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Russia moves to win the peace in Syria
Last week’s summit in the Russian town of Sochi between the Russian, Iranian and Turkish leaders is being billed as a potential breakthrough in the quest to bring peace to Syria. Sochi is the latest example of Russian diplomatic initiative in the midst of broader international inertia. Indeed, Sochi unfolded...
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France’s destabilising role in the Middle East
With the defeat of Daesh in Syria and Iraq, the mainstream media is focussing on the growing tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia as the next big showdown in the region. The tension is apparently mounting daily especially on account of reports of covert contacts between Israelis and Saudis...
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The myth of an Israel-Saudi alliance
The Saudi decision to cause a political crisis in Lebanon by forcing Saad Hariri to resign his post as Lebanese prime minister has begun speculation of yet more dramatic events to unfold. Specifically, there are fears of a joint Saudi-Israeli effort to start a war in Lebanon. The argument rests...
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Syria endgame forces Saudi Arabia’s hand
The Syrian conflict is rapidly coming to a conclusion, as demonstrated by the government’s retaking of the strategic Deir Ez-Zor province. The Syrian government has pressed home its advantage by wresting control of the border town of Abu Kamal away from Daesh. The retaking of Abu Kamal is critically important...
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Iran unsure about Hamas-Fatah reconciliation
The reconciliation accord reached between Hamas and Fatah earlier this month has raised hopes of lasting Palestinian unity in the face of an increasingly belligerent Israeli government. This is despite the United States government’s decidedly ambivalent attitude toward the accord. The US government’s insistence that Hamas must “disarm” and “recognise”...
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Iraq strikes back in lightening Kirkuk offensive
The Iraqi Army and allied Popular Mobilisation Units’ lightening and relatively bloodless offensive to retake Kirkuk and other disputed areas is being widely interpreted as a shot in the arm for the embattled Iraqi state. It comes on the heels of Iraq’s recapture from Daesh of Hawija, the last...
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Iran and America: What next?
Donald Trump’s incendiary attack on Iran last Friday stands out as his most important action to date as US president. Whilst his decision to decertify the landmark nuclear accord of 2015 was expected, it was Trump’s concerted effort at projecting the Islamic Republic as darkly as possible that has...
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Saudi Arabia’s outreach to Moscow underlines the loss of US influence
In a year of surprises in the Middle East, the visit to Moscow by the Saudi Arabian King Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud is arguably the biggest surprise of all. This visit speaks of a realignment of regional priorities and is the latest evidence of a tentative Saudi shift away...
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Kurdish Nationalism and Western double standards
Barely a week after the controversial Iraqi Kurdish advisory independence referendum, the Spanish region of Catalonia held a similar vote. The similarities stop there, as the robust reaction of the Spanish authorities to the referendum could not be more different from that of Iraq’s enfeebled leaders and corrupt officials. By...
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Israel is struggling to adapt to the end of the Syrian conflict
As the Syrian conflict gradually winds down it is becoming easier to identify the winners and the losers. At a global level the conflict is seen widely as a big win for Russia, and by extension a loss for the United States. However, despite their significant differences, Russia and the...
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Kurdish referendum set to plunge Iraq into existential crisis
As the Iraqi Kurdish administration continues to defy international opinion by pressing ahead with its plans to hold an advisory independence referendum next Monday, Iraq’s two most powerful neighbouring countries have stepped up rhetorical opposition to the move. At the weekend Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National...
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Israeli support for Kurdish statehood is a poisoned chalice
With the referendum on proposed Kurdish independence just two weeks away, the stage is being set for the gravest political and potential military crisis in post-Baathist Iraq. Months of intense lobbying by Iranian, Turkish and even American officials and interlocutors has failed to dissuade the Iraqi Kurdish leadership from...
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Iraqi politics heats up ahead of next year’s elections
As the fight against Daesh continues to grab international headlines, behind the scenes Iraqi politics is gearing up for a reset. With provincial and parliamentary elections scheduled for next year, there are signs that a significant rotation of elites may unfold in Baghdad. At the strategic level, the Iraqi state...
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The Syrian rebellion enters its endgame
Credible reports centred on the collapse of Ahrar Al-Sham in north-west Syria point toward an important shift in the six-year Syrian rebellion. The group was widely regarded as the largest and most potent non-jihadi element of the Syrian rebellion. By definition, therefore, its collapse is a key indicator of...
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Iraq’s Shia political establishment is in turmoil
For the past three years virtually all news related to Iraq has been dominated by Daesh and the struggle to defeat it. Political developments in Baghdad have gone largely unnoticed, save for intermittent coverage of Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi’s supposed pursuit of meritocracy in the face of opposition from...
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Saudi Arabia’s forgotten war strikes back
The full implications of Saudi Arabia’s three-months old siege of the Qatif town of Awamiyah are only just beginning to emerge. Pictures depicting wholesale destruction and civil war-like conditions in the Shia-majority town speak to the intensity of the fighting. But more importantly, they provide a hint as to...
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US scales back ambitions in Syria to accommodate Russia
After months of dithering the Trump administration finally appears to be implementing a relatively coherent policy in Syria. The decision to focus exclusively on Daesh and completely forego any kinetic action against the Syrian government is decidedly bad news for the exiled Syrian opposition and the armed groups on...
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Syria ceasefire reflects big power diplomacy
The latest ceasefire in south-west Syria, negotiated by the United States and Russia, is a clear reflection of increasing US-Russian cooperation in the country. Whilst this is a welcome development in terms of managing the broader strategic ramifications of the Syrian conflict, nonetheless it falls far short of adequately...
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Britain’s counter-extremism strategy is under close scrutiny
The suppression of an important report into the funding of “extremist” activity in Britain by foreign sources is a clear indication of the gap between British foreign and domestic policies. It is an obvious example of the government prioritising sensitive foreign relations over transparency and maintaining public confidence. The...
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Defiant Qatar redefines the regional landscape
As expected Qatar has defied the extortionate demands made on it by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. The stage is now set for a prolonged economic blockade and political isolation. But barring military action, Saudi Arabia and its allies will eventually have to moderate their demands...
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The liberation of Mosul has failed to eradicate Daesh in Iraq
As Iraqi forces continue to mop up the last remnants of Daesh from west Mosul, it is worth remembering that the jihadist group continues to maintain a significant presence in five other Iraqi provinces. The retaking of Mosul may inflict a symbolic blow to Daesh’s bogus caliphate but it...
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The Middle East needs an eccentric player like Qatar
The release of formal demands made of Qatar by the Saudi-led coalition bears striking similarities to 19th century-style gunboat diplomacy with its concept of issuing impossible-to-meet demands intended to escalate a situation into potential military action. Whilst military action in this case appears unlikely, there is every reason to...
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Iran is failing to capitalise on the Saudi-Qatar split
The intensifying split within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), as epitomised by the Saudi-led effort to isolate Qatar, has effectively ended (at least for the foreseeable future) Saudi Arabia’s drive to build a credible regional coalition against Iran. In that context, the Saudi-Qatar spat is clearly welcomed by Tehran,...
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Will the attack on Tehran lead Iran to change its regional policy?
Last Wednesday’s twin terror attacks in Tehran have come as a huge surprise for a number of reasons, not least because of the brazen breach of the Islamic Republic’s formidable counter-terrorism defences. Whilst Daesh has had its sights on Iran for more than three years, and just three months ago...
