Winners and losers of the 7 October War

The Middle East conflict escalated after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, disrupting the region and prompting global reflection. The war has produced notable winners and losers. Let’s start with the losers.

Main losers

Israeli narrative

For 77 years, Israel meticulously cultivated an image of victimhood, presenting itself as a beacon of liberal democracy and a staunch defender of human rights. Post-7 October, this carefully constructed façade has crumbled, and Israel’s reputation suffered irreparable damage. The world has borne witness to scenes of unimaginable annihilation, relentless bombardment, and the tragic killing of over 55,000 Palestinians, overwhelmingly children, women, and the elderly. Israel’s starvation policy, purportedly aimed at combating Hamas, has further exacerbated global outrage. Consequently, Israel is now increasingly viewed as a “pariah state.” Weekly protests take place in major cities worldwide, including London, Berlin, Paris, Madrid, and several US cities and university campuses.  For the first time, a significant portion of the American public, a traditionally unwavering ally, views Israel not as a trusted partner but as a profound disappointment. The damage to Israel’s reputation can never be overstated. Billions of dollars and decades of complex public relations and image cultivation forever evaporated in less than two years. The damage is irreparable and will have an unimaginably long-term negative impact on Israel.

Israeli army

Once lauded for its “blitzkrieg” victories against Arab states, notably the 1967 Six-Day War, where it swiftly defeated Egyptian, Syrian, and Jordanian forces, the Israeli Army’s reputation has taken a severe beating. Despite its overwhelming technological and military superiority, the IDF has struggled to subdue Hamas, which has no more than 30,000 lightly armed fighters. The extensive and complex network of Hamas tunnels has proven to be a persistent and formidable challenge, with the IDF managing to destroy only a fraction of it. Internally, the Army is reportedly exhausted. Haaretz reports alarming instances of Israeli soldiers committing suicide and refusing to fight or serve additional reserve terms. Compounding these workforce issues, conservative Jews (Haredim) continue their long-standing refusal to serve in the military. The IDF’s international standing has plummeted, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres placing the IDF on the “list of shame.”

Hezbollah of Lebanon  

Once lauded as a formidable regional force, Hezbollah, with its vast arsenal of pinpoint-accuracy missiles and battle-hardened fighters, suffered a catastrophic blow in the current conflict. In a swift succession of Israeli strikes, the group was effectively decapitated. Its charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah, his designated successor, and numerous top military commanders in southern Lebanon and south Beirut were eliminated. Reports of deep infiltration by Mossad and the extensive use of double agents and spies suggest a sophisticated intelligence operation that crippled Hezbollah’s operational capabilities and exposed a critical vulnerability within its ranks. This decisive blow has profoundly diminished Hezbollah’s local and regional influence and standing.

United States

The United States, Israel’s foremost benefactor, providing immense military, financial, and diplomatic support, has emerged from this conflict with its global standing significantly diminished. Many view the US as complicit in Gaza’s destruction, seeing little difference between its actions and Israel’s. Despite its immense leverage, the US seemingly failed to meaningfully influence Israeli actions, leading to the widespread belief that it actively encouraged and prolonged a conflict that many argue could have ended months ago with a simple hostage-prisoner swap.

Europeans

European nations initially responded with cautious “concern.” However, as the conflict dragged on and the humanitarian catastrophe deepened, a notable shift began to emerge. While some initial discussions of sanctions against Israel often failed to materialise, a positive development has been the growing momentum toward “revising relationships” and commercial ties with Israel. Crucially, since 7 October, several European countries, including Spain, Norway, and Ireland, have courageously declared their support for the creation of Palestine, recognised Palestine as a sovereign state, and actively advocated for its full UN membership.

Arab and Muslim worlds

Despite the profound humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza – 20 months of violence, death, starvation, bombardment, and destruction – the collective response from the Arab and Muslim worlds has been characterized by a disheartening silence and inaction. Possessing the collective capacity to intervene, for instance, by ensuring the delivery of thousands of blocked food trucks to Southern Gaza, they have largely failed to act. Arab and Muslim summits have produced little more than toothless declarations, earning them the ignominious label of “paper tigers.” The perceived humiliation is profound, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu telling them to “keep quiet ” and a noticeable absence of courageous voices speaking out.

Main winners

Amidst the devastation, a few entities have surprisingly managed to gain from the conflict, in this order of descending importance.

People of Gaza and Palestinian resistance (Hamas, Islamic Jihad) 

Despite bearing the brunt of the conflict with immense suffering, the people of Gaza and the Palestinian resistance factions have displayed an astonishing and unprecedented level of unwavering resolve. Hamas and other resistance groups have managed to outmanoeuvre the technologically superior Israeli military, demonstrating strategic effectiveness and adaptability. Crucially, the people of Gaza have steadfastly refused incentives to leave their land for other countries, recalling the painful memory of the 1948 Nakba, when those who left never returned. This steadfastness, exemplified by the rejection of proposals like President Donald Trump’s suggestion to buy Gaza and turn it into a resort, underscores their unshakeable commitment to their homeland.

Houthis of Yemen

From the outset of the conflict, the Houthis of Yemen took direct action, launching missiles and drones at Israel. Their actions, despite international condemnation and counter-strikes by Israel and the US, have had a tangible impact. They have reportedly struck targets across Israel, leading to the declaration by Israeli authorities that the port of Eilat would be closed indefinitely, significantly impacting Israeli trade routes. This has elevated the Houthis’ profile as a significant regional actor willing to take concrete steps in support of the Palestinian cause, earning the respect and admiration of the Arab World for their courage and readiness to bear the consequences of their action.

Arab masses  

Initially, the Arab public demonstrated fervent support for the Palestinians, expressed through vibrant radio and TV discussions, passionate articles, and weekly demonstrations in cities such as Amman, Baghdad, Algiers, and Yemen. While this initial enthusiasm has somewhat faded due to weariness and a sense of powerlessness, the underlying solidarity with the Palestinian cause remains a powerful undercurrent, a potential force for future change.

Related conflict: Israel-Iran War   

The 7 October War also inadvertently triggered a separate, albeit brief, 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran in June 2025, dragging the US into the conflict. Israel reported intercepting most Iranian projectiles, but some advanced missiles struck key sites such as Israeli military headquarters, intelligence agencies, and ports, including Haifa.  For the first time, Israelis witnessed firsthand the meaning of destruction on their soil. This destruction, despite Israeli censorship efforts, was instantly visible on television screens worldwide. Airbases and planes were reportedly damaged or destroyed, and some senior Israeli military and security officers were killed.

One critical point to emphasise is that Israel’s goal in this conflict was not limited to destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities; it aimed to topple the Iranian regime itself. This is why Israel targeted key military, intelligence, and political leaders. However, this ambitious goal failed spectacularly. Instead, Iran witnessed a significant surge of nationalism and popular support for its government, a powerful unintended consequence of Israel’s actions.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.