Options before Hamas on the question of disarmament

The issue of disarming the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, has emerged as one of the most complex and sensitive files under discussion in the second phase of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.

The issue has imposed itself on both regional and international agendas. It is far from simple, and not a card that can easily be set aside — especially at a time when the Israeli occupation army has committed 80 violations of the agreement, resulting in the deaths of 97 Palestinians and injuries to 230 others since the ceasefire was declared, according to a statement by the Gaza Government Media Office.

The entire matter could turn into a ticking mine capable of blowing up the fragile agreement between the two sides. It may also remain a persistent headache for the Israeli government, potentially dragging everyone into a deep impasse — and taking Gaza back to square one yet again.

Hamas’s arsenal

Some Israeli, Western and Arab quarters are keen to exaggerate Hamas’s capabilities — yet its military stockpile lacks fighter jets, tanks, long-range missiles, bunker-busting ordnance, smart robotic systems and other precision-guided weapons that the Israeli military possesses.

Hamas possesses short-range rockets, locally made gliders and drones, a home-grown air-defence system, and an assortment of shells, rifles and older weapons upgraded by the movement’s engineers.

According to Egyptian military expert and armament specialist Brigadier General Samir Ragheb, Hamas has managed to manufacture its weapons using simple metals, fibreglass, and uncomplicated engines taken from motorbikes or car spare parts permitted by Israel to enter Gaza — along with guidance devices, some of which, he told the BBC, are repurposed from children’s toys.

Over the past two years, Hamas’s military wing, the Qassam Brigades, has depleted much of its stockpile of weaponry. During the launch of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” offensive on 7 October 2023, it fired more than 5,000 rockets at Israeli sites, airports and settlements. But that arsenal has since dwindled significantly, with rocket fire dropping in recent months to as few as three to five missiles at a time.

The tightened blockade and the widespread destruction that has wiped out more than 90 per cent of Gaza’s infrastructure have severely undermined the group’s armament capabilities. Many of its tunnels and manufacturing workshops have been destroyed, forcing it to recycle remnants of Israeli weapons and unexploded ordnance, as well as parts from destroyed tanks and vehicles. These now serve as a primary source of raw materials to offset the acute shortage of conventional supplies faced by its fighters.

Disarmament

A few days ago, US President Donald Trump said the second phase of the Gaza agreement has now begun and that Hamas will relinquish its weapons, warning: ‘If it does not, we will take care of it.’ He insisted the group’s disarmament would happen swiftly — and possibly violently, in his words.

To date, the Trump administration has not specified the mechanisms it would use to disarm Hamas — how it would first locate and inventory the group’s stockpiles, where those caches are held, or how it would compel other Palestinian factions to meet the US-Israeli demand.

Saying that Hamas will lay down its weapons is easy; carrying it out, however, would be far more difficult, former US National Security Adviser Michael Faivel told Al Jazeera.

The issue is highly complex for several reasons. First, successive Israeli breaches of the ceasefire agreement make it difficult to persuade the movement to surrender its weapons.

Second, there is a growing demand for arms to quell disorder and impose order inside the Strip.

Third, the prisoners’ card has lost much of its value following the hostage exchanges, narrowing Hamas’s leverage and leaving few bargaining chips — most notably the weapons issue.

European officials have put forward a document outlining a potential role for EU member states in “assessing and exploring ways to finance and provide the expertise needed for disarmament in Gaza.” The proposal also includes redeploying a monitoring mission at the Rafah border crossing and assisting in training a police force within the Strip.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has outlined his vision for Hamas’s disarmament phase, citing his country’s experience in persuading the Irish Republican Army to give up its weapons in Northern Ireland under the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. That deal was part of a comprehensive settlement that offered political and security gains, confidence-building measures, and power-sharing with formerly armed groups. Analysts, however, argue that such a model does not suit the Palestinian context — Gaza is not Belfast, they say, and even Tel Aviv would never agree to such an approach.

Peter McLoughlin, Professor of Political Science at Queen’s University Belfast, commented: “Hamas is excluded from the political process, yet it is being asked to give up its weapons. I’m not sure how realistic that is,” he told AFP.

An Egyptian proposal

Egyptian circles have been discussing a proposal under which Cairo would take possession of Hamas’s weapons or oversee the disarmament process through an independent committee. However, journalist Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt’s State Information Service, revealed a different idea during an appearance on Al Arabiya’s Out of the Box programme: Hamas, he said, has agreed to “freeze its weapons” rather than surrender them outright, as part of a long-term truce that could last up to ten years.

According to Rashwan, Hamas’s weapons would not be handed over to Israel or the United States, and the agreement does not specify who would take possession of them. Instead, it refers to an independent committee — which, he said, could be Egyptian, Egyptian-Arab, or Egyptian-Arab-Palestinian.

Egyptian political analyst Mohamed Gamal told Middle East Monitor that a complete surrender of weapons is unlikely. However, he said Hamas might agree to relinquish its heavy, offensive arms — but not its defensive ones — given that it considers itself engaged in the defence of occupied territory. He added that several Palestinian factions reject the idea outright.

Hamas’s options

Faced with this dilemma, Hamas appears cornered amid American, European and Arab pressure, and Israeli threats to resume the war on Gaza if it refuses to hand over its weapons. Yet a senior Hamas official, who asked not to be named, told AFP a few days ago that “the question of surrendering weapons is not up for discussion and is out of the question.”

However, senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk struck a more pragmatic and astute tone, telling Al Jazeera that “the movement is ready to hand over its weapons on the day a fully sovereign Palestinian state is established.”

Alongside an outright refusal to disarm, the movement—seasoned in the arts of warfare and led by shrewd commanders—could conceal what remains of its arsenal in deep tunnels and secret bunkers, or transfer stockpiles to another Palestinian faction, such as Islamic Jihad. The two movements already run a joint operations room to coordinate military activity among the armed factions.

Hamas could manoeuvre by agreeing to a partial handover — for example surrendering rockets to appease Trump — while keeping defensive weapons; or by transferring some arms to an Arab or international peacekeeping force; or by handing them over to a recognised legitimate authority, such as an elected national government.

American pragmatism

American pragmatism could well resurface — as it did when Washington engaged in direct talks with Hamas to broker the end of the war. Under pressure from mediators, the US administration might be willing to accept the removal of some, rather than all, of Hamas’s weapons, according to political analyst Shehab al-Masri.

During their visit to Israel this week, US Vice President JD Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner could help repair the cracks that have quickly appeared in the agreement — and rein in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who seems eager to undermine the ceasefire deal.

For its part, Hamas is working to re-establish its footing in Gaza — politically, militarily and on the ground — while awaiting what the coming weeks and months will bring. The movement is determined to maintain security control over the Strip to prevent lawlessness, the spread of armed chaos or a collapse of the agreement — outcomes neither Washington nor the regional mediators wish to see.

The Palestinian resistance remains the primary party called on to answer questions about the fate of its weapons — but an equally urgent question is this: what has the other side offered to persuade the victim to forgo the right to self-defence?

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.