El-Sisi: Europe’s policeman

The first-ever Egypt–EU summit has sparked a storm of questions about the European Union’s stance on Egypt’s human rights abuses, the future of their growing security cooperation, and the fate of President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s rule.

The landmark meeting, held last month, marked an unprecedented step in relations between Cairo and Brussels — signalling a clear international rapprochement with Egypt’s regime and a notable expansion of political and security ties.

The Brussels summit came at a critical moment, as Egypt prepares for parliamentary elections that opposition groups say are being engineered to favour pro-government parties. At the same time, reports have emerged of plans to amend the constitution in a way that could allow President El-Sisi to remain in power for a fourth term, extending his rule until 2036.

The migration file

Under the comprehensive strategic partnership signed last year, the European Union has pledged a total of €7.4 billion ($8.06 billion) in support for Cairo, to be disbursed until 2027.

The Egyptian government is expected to soon receive the second instalment of EU financial support worth €4 billion ($4.6 billion), following the first €1 billion payment made at the end of December.

This generous aid package is the EU’s second-largest financial commitment to a non-member state — surpassed only by the support granted to Ukraine.

The European aid aims to ensure that Egypt continues to play the role of Europe’s policeman on the southern shores of the Mediterranean, under what Brussels describes as “migration governance and anti-smuggling efforts.” The objective is to stem the flow of illegal migration to EU countries and prevent the passage of Egyptian and African migrants and refugees through Egypt’s coastline, which has become a key gateway to the European continent.

The European Border and Coast Guard Agency, Frontex, lists Egypt among the most active countries in sending illegal migrants to the European Union, which received around 95,200 people during the first seven months of this year.

Egypt ranks seventh among the ten largest sources of illegal migration to Europe. In 2022 alone, more than 21,700 Egyptians crossed the Mediterranean to Europe illegally, according to Frontex.

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Vast interests

Alongside the pressing migration issue confronting Europe, the war on Gaza has restored much of Egypt’s geopolitical importance as a stabilising force in the Middle East. Cairo has reasserted itself as a regional guarantor capable of offering Israel extensive support in security and intelligence cooperation, mediating calm in the Gaza Strip, and containing the Palestinian resistance. This role was evident at the recent Sharm El-Sheikh summit, which concluded with a ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey.

Europe is counting on Egypt’s role in the post-war phase — from helping to govern Gaza and disarm Hamas, to deploying Egyptian peacekeepers, training Palestinian police forces to run the Gaza Strip, curbing smuggling, destroying tunnels, and boosting coordination and cooperation with Tel Aviv.

The vast network of shared interests between Egypt and Europe extends to the gas fields of the Eastern Mediterranean, the security of navigation in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, counterterrorism efforts, and the crises in Libya, Sudan, and the Horn of Africa — as well as the race for major investments across the African continent. Together, these are vital and highly sensitive issues for Europe’s security and economic stability.

The investment factor also looms large, given Egypt’s vast consumer market of more than 100 million people, a trade volume of around $31.2 billion in 2023, and its position as a key gateway to African markets — a strategic balancing point for Europe as it seeks to regain influence in the region.

Courting his European counterparts, El-Sisi declared that “European investments in Egypt will not only yield financial returns, but will also help build a more balanced regional economy, support stability across the southern Mediterranean, and strengthen the position of European companies in rapidly expanding markets.” He added that Egypt’s strategic location offers access to more than 1.5 billion consumers across Africa, the Arab world and Europe.

Bargaining chips

President El-Sisi has mastered the art of playing his bargaining chips, frequently invoking the spectre of political Islam and warning Europe of the danger it could pose if allowed to return to power — as witnessed during the Arab Spring uprisings.

The Egyptian regime seeks to exploit Europe’s lingering Islamophobia for broader political gains, hoping to push through constitutional amendments related to presidential terms — currently set at six years, with a maximum of two terms for any president, according to the last amendment in 2018.

Egyptian journalist Mohamed El-Baz, known for his close ties to the regime, said in a televised appearance on Al-Nahar channel — owned by a sovereign entity — that he is calling for an amendment to the presidential term in the constitution. The statement was not met with any denial or clarification from the Egyptian presidency.

Observers say the parliamentary elections due to be held in Egypt this month are likely to produce a legislature with a large pro-government majority, which would then be used to amend the constitution and secure El-Sisi’s stay in power until 2036.

Human rights

In return, the Egyptian regime wants European governments to turn a blind eye to its ongoing human rights violations, the continued trial of civilians before military courts, and restrictions on civil society. It is also seeking to have European protection lifted from Egyptian dissidents abroad — a demand reflected in the recent arrest of activist Anas Habib in Belgium, on charges of “disturbing El-Sisi.”

This year, Egyptian authorities have referred around six thousand people to trial on politically motivated charges linked to opposition to the ruling regime, according to human rights reports.

Egypt may, for now, be exempt from scrutiny over its human rights record — first, because Europe and the United States want to keep the Egyptian regime in a state of calm and stability to ensure Israel’s security. Any move to open that file, says political researcher Amer Al-Masri, could lead to the return of Islamists to power — a prospect both Washington and Tel Aviv fear.

Secondly, at this particular moment, everyone wants to preserve El-Sisi’s regime and stay in his favour. He has stood firmly behind Israel during the recent war, and any move to press him on human rights would shake the system — if not topple it altogether, according to Al-Masri.

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Brussels pragmatism

Pragmatism defined the Brussels summit. What the Europeans pay in cash, they will reclaim in political, security and economic gains; and what the Egyptians offer in return will provide their ailing economy with a temporary lifeline, while sparing El-Sisi international embarrassment over his human rights record.

This cooperation is presented in official European discourse as support for stability and development. In reality, however, it serves to finance mechanisms of repression and human rights violations — targeting both Egyptian citizens and non-Egyptians — according to the independent rights group Refugees Platform in Egypt (link to statement)

Under the title “European Support for Egypt: Billions of Euros for a Dictatorial Partner in Migration Control,” migration and asylum policy researcher Nour Khalil wrote: “While Egypt continues its human rights violations against migrants and civil society, the European Union remains silent, preferring partnership over accountability” — a stance that, he says, makes the EU complicit in these abuses.

Looking ahead, Europe appears set to deepen its realignment with Egypt, entrenching a long-term strategic security partnership covering migration, maritime security, border control and counterterrorism — in exchange for shelving democracy and human rights concerns indefinitely.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.