Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Dr Kamran Yeganegi
-
The Gulf needs an energy non-aggression pact
The next crisis or confrontation in the Gulf may not begin with a territorial invasion or an attack on a military base. It could start with the disruption of an oil refinery, export terminal, liquefied natural gas facility, power grid or desalination plant. In a region where oil, gas, electricity,…
-
Helium diplomacy: The invisible bottleneck in the AI economy
A warning from Ras Laffan The Middle East is usually described as the engine room of the hydrocarbon economy. But it also sits quietly inside the infrastructure of the digital age. When conflict disrupted natural-gas processing in Qatar in March 2026, international attention focused on liquefied natural gas. Another, less…
-
The geopolitics of energy redundancy: Why the Middle East’s new power lies in backup systems
The renewed instability surrounding the Red Sea, recurring security concerns in the Strait of Hormuz and repeated attacks on critical maritime infrastructure have exposed a fundamental reality of twenty-first century energy geopolitics: production alone no longer guarantees power. Nearly one-fifth of global oil consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz,…
-
The long shadow of 1973: Why “energy memory” is reshaping global diplomacy
Crises end. Institutions remember. On an autumn morning in October 1973, motorists across Europe and North America queued for hours outside petrol stations, uncertain whether fuel would still be available. Governments imposed rationing, reduced speed limits and introduced emergency measures that reshaped economic life. Although the immediate crisis faded, the…
-
In Middle East energy, flexibility is the new power
From attacks on shipping in the Red Sea to repeated threats around the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East’s energy arteries are under growing pressure. The war in Gaza and its regional repercussions have added another layer of instability to a system already strained by sanctions, political fragmentation and competition…
-
Trust before pipelines: Why credibility has become the Middle East’s most valuable energy asset
When Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea forced vessels to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope and the Gaza war intensified regional instability, attention naturally focused on rising freight costs, supply-chain disruptions and oil-price volatility. Yet another consequence received far less attention: every disruption weakened confidence…
-
The geopolitics of energy reconstruction: Who will rebuild the Middle East’s damaged energy systems?
In the Middle East, war often survives in the electricity grid long after it recedes from the battlefield. It persists through blackouts, fuel shortages, damaged substations, disrupted water supplies and hospitals forced to rely on generators for the basic requirements of life. From Gaza and Syria to Lebanon and Yemen,…
-
The rise of energy finance diplomacy
Solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and hydrogen technologies are advancing rapidly. But deploying them at scale requires enormous amounts of capital—not only for power generation, but also for electricity grids, storage facilities, ports and critical mineral supply chains. The scale of the challenge is already visible. The International Energy Agency…
-
The geopolitics of spare capacity: The hidden weapon in energy diplomacy
For decades, energy power has been measured by familiar metrics: the size of a country’s oil reserves, its daily production and the scale of its exports. These indicators continue to shape discussions about global energy politics. Yet they overlook a strategic capability that has become increasingly important in an era…
-
Time as power: Why timing is reshaping energy diplomacy in the Middle East
For decades, energy diplomacy in the region has been understood through three familiar dimensions: geography, natural resources and infrastructure. Geography explains where hydrocarbons are found. Resources determine who possesses them. Infrastructure dictates how they are transported to global markets. These three pillars have shaped strategic thinking for more than half…
-
The geopolitics of energy storage: Who will control the batteries of the Middle East?
For more than a century, geopolitical influence in the Middle East has been defined by oil reserves, natural gas resources and the strategic waterways that connect them to global markets. Pipelines, shipping lanes and export terminals have shaped alliances, driven conflicts and determined the economic fortunes of states across the…
-
The Next Energy War Will Be Over Rules, Not Resources
When the European Union officially launched the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), much of the world’s attention focused on its environmental implications. Governments debated carbon emissions, exporters calculated potential costs, and industries assessed their competitiveness. Yet beneath the climate narrative lies a far more consequential geopolitical shift. CBAM is not…
-
Critical minerals: The next energy battle in West Asia
For decades, oil and natural gas defined power in the Middle East. Control over hydrocarbon resources shaped alliances, triggered conflicts and influenced the global economy. Today, however, a quieter but equally significant competition is emerging beneath the surface. The next strategic battle in West Asia may not be fought over…
-
Insuring oil, shaping power: The hidden geopolitics of Middle East energy
For decades, the geopolitics of Middle East energy has been defined by a familiar set of variables: oil reserves, production capacity, strategic waterways and military power. Analysts have traditionally focused on OPEC decisions, energy sanctions, pipeline routes and maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab Al-Mandab…
-
The new oil fields: Why data centres are becoming strategic assets
For more than a century, oil determined the global balance of power. Nations with vast hydrocarbon reserves wielded strategic influence, while major powers designed foreign policies around securing access to energy supplies. The Middle East occupied a central place in this geopolitical order because it possessed the resource that fuelled…
-
Energy diplomacy without energy resources: How some states gain influence without oil and gas
For more than a century, energy diplomacy has been closely associated with countries endowed with vast oil and gas reserves. The ability to produce and export hydrocarbons has often translated into geopolitical leverage, economic influence and strategic importance. However, the foundations of energy power are gradually changing. In today’s interconnected…
-
The strategic value of Kurdish gas for Europe’s energy security
Europe’s Energy Challenge is Far From Over Europe has made significant progress in reducing its dependence on Russian natural gas since the outbreak of the Ukraine war. Through increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, expanded purchases from Norway, and greater reliance on the Southern Gas Corridor, European governments have managed…
-
Megawatt diplomacy: Water as the missing link in the new architecture of Middle East energy security
From oil geopolitics to the water-energy nexus For more than a century, energy security in the Middle East has been defined by oil and gas. Strategic waterways, export routes, production capacities and geopolitical rivalries have shaped the region’s role in the global energy system. Yet while policymakers continue to debate…
-
Electricity diplomacy: The new power in the Middle East
From the geopolitics of oil to the geopolitics of electricity For decades, Oil and Gas have been the primary instruments of power in the Middle East. Regional states have exercised political and economic influence largely through fossil fuel exports and control over strategic energy routes. However, technological transformation, the expansion…
-
The geopolitics of energy algorithms: Who will control oil markets in the age of Artificial Intelligence?
From oil wells to data power For decades, power in the global energy market was defined by oil reserves, production capacity, pipelines, shipping routes and geopolitical geography. States that controlled strategic chokepoints, export corridors and vast hydrocarbon resources were considered the central actors of the international energy order. Yet recent…
-
Energy diplomacy in the age of Artificial intelligence: Will algorithms replace OPEC?
The end of traditional energy politics For decades, energy diplomacy in the Middle East revolved around a familiar triangle: Oil, geopolitics and security. Oil-producing states shaped global markets through production capacity, strategic waterways and political alliances, while organisations such as OPEC stood at the centre of energy governance. Recent global…
-
The silent pipeline wars: Who is drawing the new gas map of the Middle East?
In today’s Middle East, competition over energy resources is no longer confined to oil and gas fields; it is increasingly centered on routes—and the power to design them. Gas pipelines, once viewed as purely technical infrastructure, have evolved into geopolitical instruments used to project influence, redefine alliances and shape the…
-
Has gas replaced oil? LNG geopolitics in a Middle East at war
Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, a fundamental question is taking shape: is liquefied natural gas (LNG) redefining the geopolitics of energy—and even beginning to rival oil as the central pillar of global energy power? For decades, oil has been the backbone of geopolitical competition, conflict, and alliance-building in…
-
The naval blockade of Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz: Long-term implications for global energy security
In today’s international system, certain geographical points have evolved beyond their natural location into critical nodes of the global economy. The Strait of Hormuz is undoubtedly one of the most vital of these chokepoints. As a passage through which a significant share of the world’s oil and gas flows, any…