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Brazil’s Lula and Bolsonaro face tight run-off as Netanyahu, Trump back latter

October 16, 2026 at 9:42 am

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Workers’ Party (PT) candidate for reelection, greets supporters as he attends a campaign rally, ahead of the runoff election, in Brasilia, Brazil, October 9, 2026. [Mateus Bonomi – Anadolu Agency]

Brazil’s presidential election is entering its most critical phase ahead of a run-off scheduled for 25th  October, with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva facing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a close race increasingly shaped by ties with the United States and Israel, Brazil’s role in the Global South and its position on the Palestinian cause.

Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, surprised his rivals by finishing first in the initial round on 4 October, securing 47.03 per cent of the vote against Lula’s 45.16 per cent. The narrow margin has set the stage for a highly polarised run-off.

Recent opinion polls indicate that the race remains close, with Flavio holding a slight lead in several surveys. However, the margins remain narrow enough to leave the outcome uncertain ahead of the final vote.

Adding to Lula’s challenges, Flavio has secured support from prominent centre-right and right-wing parties and political forces, as well as backing from figures who contested the first round, strengthening his position ahead of the run-off.