Poll shows Netanyahu’s bloc losing 3 seats as opposition leads with 54 to 48 ahead of Israeli elections

A recent Israeli opinion poll published Friday showed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc losing three seats ahead of the upcoming legislative elections, falling to 48 seats compared with 54 for the Jewish opposition bloc, Anadolu reports.

The poll’s results were published by the Maariv newspaper four days before the election scheduled for Oct. 27.

Neither bloc would be able to form a government based on the projected results.

According to the poll, Netanyahu’s bloc lost three seats compared with the last week’s, in which it was projected to win 51 seats.

The poll found that Netanyahu’s bloc would secure 48 seats if elections were held today, including 19 for his Likud party, seven for Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party, seven for the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party, eight for the ultra-Orthodox Shas party, and seven for Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party.

The Jewish opposition bloc would win 54 seats, including 21 for Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, 15 for Naftali Bennett’s Together party, 10 for Yair Golan’s Democrats party, and eight for Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party.

Arab parties would secure 14 seats, with nine going to the Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, and five to the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas.

Separately, the Reservists party, led by Yoaz Hendel, would win four seats, though the poll did not specify which bloc it would support.

Forming a government requires the support of at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 members.

Most leaders of Jewish opposition parties have ruled out cooperating with Arab parties to form a government.

Maariv attributed the decline in Netanyahu bloc’s projected seats to the failure of the “Your Israel” party, led by Ofer Winter, to cross the electoral threshold after polls in recent weeks had projected it would win four seats.

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In recent days, Winter has faced pressure from Netanyahu’s camp to withdraw from the race, on the grounds that his continued candidacy would harm right-wing votes that could otherwise go to parties more likely to win seats.

Preferences for prime minister

The poll showed Eisenkot maintaining his lead over Netanyahu as the preferred candidate for prime minister, with 49% support compared with 41% for Netanyahu.

Bennett also led Netanyahu, receiving 45% support against 43% for the incumbent prime minister.

Israel’s prime minister is not elected directly by the public.

The position goes to the candidate who can form a government that wins the support of at least 61 Knesset members.

Possibility of another election

Should the current deadlock persist, Israel could find itself facing another round of elections — unless a unity government or a narrow-based government, supported from the outside by Arab lawmakers, is formed.

According to Maariv, 60% of Israelis prefer a unity government if the Knesset election produces no clear outcome.

Of those, 33% favor a government led by a figure from the “Change Bloc,” while 19% want Netanyahu to lead it. Another 8% said they were not interested.

The newspaper added that 23% favor holding another election if no decisive result emerges, down from 27% in the previous poll, while 17% said they did not know.

The outlet stated that the poll was conducted by the private Lazar Research Institute among a random sample of 580 Israelis, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.

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