Are Gaza and Iran upending the political balance in America?

A Democratic wave swept across the United States in the midterm elections, securing the party control of both chambers of Congress and extending to a majority of governorships and of state legislatures. These four major centres of political power give the elections, through their geographical and institutional breadth, the character of a broad popular referendum on the direction of the country and the policies of its future administrations. The election results are linked not only to the war on Iran, but also to the controversy surrounding US support for Israel in its war on Gaza, which was reflected in widespread protests in a number of US states and carried over into the election campaigns. From this perspective, the results represent a popular response to President Donald Trump and his policies, particularly after he himself urged his supporters to vote as though his name were on the ballot, thereby tying his party’s electoral fortunes to himself and his performance as president.

These elections and their results were influenced by a domestic political battle that has been raging in the United States for three years, beginning with demonstrations and popular protests against the genocidal war on Palestinians in Gaza. Despite the suppression of these protests, which saw some participants arrested, suspended or expelled from their studies, or dismissed from their jobs, and the pressure placed on university funding and research grants, the results in a number of states translated the mood on the street into votes at the ballot box. The outcome was also linked to growing public opposition to the war on Iran and its economic consequences for Americans.

While the Republicans controlled the Senate in the previous Congress with a majority of 53 seats to 47 for the Democratic caucus, this month’s elections turned the tables. The Democrats wrested eight seats from the Republicans in Maine, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Mississippi. This gave the Democratic caucus 55 seats in the new Senate, compared with 44 for the Republicans. Their total could rise to 56 if Democrat Mary Peltola wins the Alaska seat, where she is leading her Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan, according to preliminary vote counts. An analysis of the positions taken by the Democratic and Republican candidates in the eight states on the war on Gaza, arms supplies to Israel and the war on Iran shows that the majority of voters in those states placed their trust in Democratic candidates who had set out their views on these issues during their election campaigns.

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Most of the victorious Democratic candidates focused on the toll on civilians in Gaza, with positions ranging from criticism of the bombing and destruction of cities to calls for the protection of civilians and the delivery of aid. By contrast, their Republican opponents largely emphasised Israel’s right to defend itself and focused on defeating Hamas.

At least half of the Democratic winners supported restricting or halting US arms supplies to Israel, while most of their Republican opponents supported continuing to arm Israel, although their positions differed on the scale of that support.

In a further contrast, most of the Democratic winners called for an end to the US war on Iran, whereas most of their Republican opponents supported Trump’s strikes or opposed restrictions on his authority to continue the war.

In Texas, James Talarico became the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in the state since 1988, after calling for an end to offensive arms sales to Netanyahu’s government and pledging to vote to end the war on Iran. He defeated Republican Ken Paxton, who supported Trump’s decision to enter the war. In Michigan, where the Democrats retained their Senate seat, Abdul El-Sayed described the war on Gaza as genocide and called for an end to US military support for Israel. He first beat Haley Stevens, a defender of continued military support, in the Democratic primary, before going on to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in the general election.

While the Republicans controlled the House of Representatives with a narrow majority produced by the 2024 elections, holding 220 seats to the Democrats’ 215, the Democrats wrested 44 seats from the Republicans in this month’s elections and lost three of their own. This secured the Democrats a substantial majority in the new House, with 255 seats compared with 169 for the Republicans as of the evening of 12th November, while 11 seats remain undecided.

In the 44 House districts the Democrats flipped from the Republicans, most of the winners criticised the US war on Iran, although their positions varied from objections to its cost and the lack of congressional authorisation to pledges to vote to end it. As for the war on Gaza, the debate extended to how far US support for Israel should go. At least 12 of the winners called for halting certain forms of arms supplies or military funding, or making them conditional, while others combined criticism of the killing of civilians with support for Israel’s security, and some explicitly defended continued military assistance without further conditions.

New York, California and Massachusetts, along with cities such as Ann Arbor in Michigan and Minneapolis in Minnesota, have seen widespread protests since the outbreak of the war on Gaza in 2023, whose chief demands were a ceasefire and an end to US military support for Israel. In some of these areas, people who took part in the protests and championed their demands have been elected to office. In New York, Democrat Darializa Avila Chevalier, one of the organisers of the Gaza solidarity encampment at Columbia University, won the US House of Representatives seat for the district that includes the university, after calling for a full arms embargo on Israel. In Minnesota, Democrat Ilhan Omar retained her seat for the district that includes Minneapolis, where she participated in a protest at the University of Minnesota in April 2024, and later called for a full arms embargo on Israel.

These demands also found their way into state legislatures.

In New York, Palestinian-American Aber Kawas won a Queens seat in the New York State Senate, having helped draft a bill to prevent charities registered in New York from funding Israeli settlement organisations.

In Massachusetts, Ed Markey retained his seat in the US Senate and, in his victory speech, called both for an end to the bombing of Gaza and for an end to the US war on Iran, having voted in April to advance two resolutions aimed at blocking the sale of bombs and military bulldozers to Israel.

These developments are closely linked to the notable rise of Arabs and Muslims in these elections. Indeed, these shifts in the United States may help explain that rise. The elections marked a historic breakthrough in Arab and Muslim representation in both chambers of Congress, with eight Muslims elected to Congress, the highest number in US history. At the forefront was Egyptian-American Abdul El-Sayed, who won Michigan’s Senate seat, becoming the first Arab Muslim elected to the Senate. In the House of Representatives, five Muslim members retained their seats and were joined by two newly elected members. This total exceeds the levels recorded after previous elections, standing, for example, at four after the 2024 elections and three after the 2022 elections. Arabs and Muslims also maintained their presence in state legislatures during these elections, achieving further breakthroughs.

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These developments are also linked to an electoral rise a year earlier, when Zohran Mamdani won the election to become the first Muslim mayor of New York City, the largest city in the country, having stood firm in condemning the genocidal war in Gaza and calling for Netanyahu to be held accountable. Last year’s elections, which covered positions at state, municipal, local council, education and judicial levels, set precedents that surpassed the levels of representation seen in previous years. At least 38 Muslim candidates were documented as winning offices in state and local government, the judiciary and education during that cycle, marking a notably strong Muslim and Arab presence across the offices contested.

The Democrats’ gains at the ballot box reflect a broader shift in American public opinion, as shown by opinion polls. Gallup found that opposition to Israeli military operations in Gaza rose from 45 per cent in November 2023 to 60 per cent in July 2025, while support fell from half to around a third.

Ahead of the midterm elections, a Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll found that 56 per cent of Americans supported reducing or ending military aid to Israel, rising to 72 per cent among Democrats and 64 per cent among independents. After the elections, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 71 per cent supported congressional legislation to end the war on Iran. These findings place the victories of candidates opposed to the war on Iran and to arming Israel within this wider public context.

In conclusion, the results of the latest US elections are more than a referendum rejecting Trump’s policies towards Gaza, Iran and Israel; their consequences, particularly in Congress, may bring a string of setbacks for the president. The results give the opposition effective tools to hold Trump to account, obstruct his agenda and impose binding constraints on his presidency over the next two years. When the new majority takes office in January, the Democrats will be able to launch investigations, summon officials and demand documents concerning the war, spending and conflicts of interest, block legislation and supplementary funding sought by the administration, and reject nominations requiring Senate confirmation. The new Congress could also reconsider military aid to Israel and make it directly conditional on respect for human rights, given that US law, notably the Leahy Law, prohibits military assistance to foreign security forces implicated in gross violations of human rights, which is what is happening in Gaza.

Congress could also refuse to pass any package containing supplementary funding for the war on Iran, use its spending powers to prevent the continued financing of the war, and include an explicit prohibition on such funding in Department of Defense appropriations legislation. The important question now is whether these elections mark the beginning of a new era in the United States.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.