Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Dr Jannus TH Siahaan
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The Kharg gamble could backfire on America
Military tensions in the Persian Gulf have once again reached a dangerously critical point. The fragile ceasefire efforts pursued since April have effectively collapsed following a series of retaliatory exchanges between the United States and Iran. The latest escalation was triggered by the downing of a US Army Apache helicopter…
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Could Iran’s new air defence system be a game changer?
The doctrine of absolute air dominance, long regarded as an unassailable pillar of Western military strategy, is facing an unexpected test over the skies of the Persian Gulf. For decades, American air superiority has been viewed as an almost impenetrable shield, allowing Washington to shape conflicts on its own terms.…
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The prospect of peace remains murky
Several pauses toward a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran have taken place, even as intermittent flare-ups continue to erupt across the region. Yet any clear certainty about a durable peace still appears distant and deeply complicated. What is undeniable, however, is that the balance of physical…
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How St. Petersburg became Tehran’s last strategic lifeline
In the shifting geometry of global power, wars are no longer merely fought on battlefields, they are negotiated in silence, traded across continents, and priced in barrels of oil and bytes of intelligence. The Iran crisis of 2026 has become precisely that kind of conflict: a high-stakes geopolitical marketplace where…
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In the end, the United States must acknowledge that Iran is inherently bound to the Strait of Hormuz
The geography of the Strait of Hormuz is a cruel mistress to the logic of conventional military might, a reality that the world is rediscovering with agonizing clarity in the spring of 2026. For decades, the narrative of Western naval hegemony suggested that the sheer weight of American carrier strike…
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The geostrategic and geoeconomics of Kharg Island
Security dynamics in the Persian Gulf have entered a perilous phase following the outbreak of armed confrontation between the United States–Israel axis and Iran in late February 2026. At the center of this storm lies Kharg Island, a mere 20-square-kilometer outcrop that has rapidly become one of the most consequential…
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From Hormuz to households: How geopolitics is repricing Indonesia’s cooking oil
The escalating military confrontation in the Middle East, pitting the United States and Israel against Iran, has become a transmission belt, channeling external shocks directly into Indonesia’s domestic economy. Nowhere is this more evident than in the price of cooking oil, one of the country’s most politically sensitive commodities. The…
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Hormuz crisis and the economic cost of Indonesia’s work-from-home policy
The Indonesian government’s plan to implement a one-day-a-week Work From Home (WFH) policy for civil servants following the 2026 Eid holidays signals a form of fiscal anxiety in response to persistent global geopolitical turbulence. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has pushed global crude oil prices above the…
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How Indonesia’s new trade ties with Washington muted its voice on Iran
When the United States and Israel struck Tehran in late February, Jakarta’s response was conspicuously muted, echoing the unusually quiet corridors of diplomacy in Pejambon, typically alive with sovereignty-laden rhetoric. As “Operation Epic Fury” unfolded on February 28, 2026, unleashing precision-guided missiles and reportedly eliminating Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali…
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Why Prabowo must follow through on cancelling the Gaza peacekeeping deployment
Indonesia’s plan to deploy peacekeeping forces to the Gaza Strip, once heralded as a landmark moment in the country’s military diplomacy, has now reached a critical impasse. The ambitious commitment to send up to 8,000 Indonesian troops under the banner of an International Stabilization Force (ISF), initiated through the Board…
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The political irony of Prabowo’s Gaza moment
President Prabowo Subianto’s presence at the Gaza Peace Summit in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt, last week marked a significant moment in Indonesia’s foreign policy stagecraft. Standing alongside world figures such as Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, US President Donald Trump, and several Middle Eastern leaders, Prabowo projected an image of Indonesia…