Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Dr Umud Shokri
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France’s Eastern Mediterranean energy strategy: Between commercial pragmatism and geopolitical ambition
France has emerged as a significant actor in the Eastern Mediterranean energy landscape, combining commercial interests, geopolitical ambition, and European energy security priorities. Its approach rests on three pillars: support for French corporate activity, especially through TotalEnergies; strategic alignment with Greece, Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel; and efforts to counterbalance Turkey’s…
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Substituting Venezuelan oil for Persian Gulf oil: A geopolitical reality check
The idea of substituting Venezuelan oil for Persian Gulf oil has become more relevant as energy security is increasingly shaped by chokepoints, sanctions, and regional conflict. Persian Gulf producers remain central to global oil supply, but a large share of their exports depends on the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S.…
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Kazakhstan and the Iran-Israel war: Navigating risks, opportunities, and strategic neutrality
Kazakhstan, a landlocked Central Asian state with a long-standing multi-vector foreign policy, has been indirectly affected by the 2025–2026 escalation between Israel, the United States, and Iran. The conflict has created both risks and opportunities for Astana. Kazakhstan has tried to preserve pragmatic neutrality while deepening ties with Israel, Gulf…
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Iran is quietly turning Hormuz into a political checkpoint
Iran is no longer using the Strait of Hormuz only as a crisis weapon. Tehran is trying to turn the waterway into a lasting source of political and economic leverage. That shift should concern Washington and its Gulf partners. The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most important oil chokepoint.…
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The UAE’s Fujairah bet: Export flexibility, energy security, and regional leverage
The UAE’s planned second Fujairah, or West-East, pipeline marks a major shift in Gulf energy security and export strategy. It matters not only because it reduces dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, but because it gives Abu Dhabi more freedom to manage exports, expand production, and strengthen its economic leverage.…
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Turkey’s Maritime Jurisdiction Bill: Energy, law, and power in the Eastern Mediterranean
Turkey’s reported plan to submit a bill to parliament asserting maritime jurisdiction over disputed areas of the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean marks a serious escalation in one of the region’s most sensitive maritime disputes. The proposed legislation would reportedly formalize Ankara’s claims in contested waters believed to contain existing or…
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China’s legal shield against US sanctions on Iranian oil
On May 2, 2026, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a landmark prohibition order under its 2021 Rules on Counteracting Unjustified Extraterritorial Application of Foreign Legislation and Other Measures, commonly known as China’s Blocking Rules. The order bars the recognition, enforcement, or compliance inside China with U.S. sanctions imposed on five…
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Navigating geopolitical complexity: A new compliance-first era in energy trading
The global energy landscape is shifting amid rising geopolitical instability, expanding sanctions regimes and strategic decoupling. Conflicts such as Russia’s war on Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East and growing friction in the Indo-Pacific have exposed the vulnerability of traditional energy corridors and supply chains. These disruptions not only…
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Iran’s deterrence doctrine: From horizontal resilience to vertical strength
Iran is moving from a horizontal to a vertical stance in its deterrent strategy, which is a major change. The decrease in its regional influence and the waning effectiveness of its proxy networks have forced a strategic recalibration, which is reflected in this change. Iran has historically projected strength outside…
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Energy projects play a significant impact in Turkiye’s presidential elections
As Turkiye’s economy continues to grow at a rapid pace, its energy demand is also increasing, leading to a growing concern over the country’s dependence on energy imports, which is seen as a threat to its national security. In 2022, Turkiye’s energy import expenses surged by around 91 per cent…
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Its gas pipeline with Egypt is a medium-term solution to Lebanon’s energy crisis
Lebanon has been facing an energy crisis for a number of years. The decline in foreign exchange reserves has made it difficult to pay overseas energy suppliers, leaving the country’s power plants without the fuel they need to operate. In August last year, the then Minister of Electricity said that…
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There are challenges and opportunities in relations between Iran and Venezuela
Political and economic relations between Iran and Venezuela have grown over the past two decades. The South American country has the largest known oil reserves in the world but, despite being recognised as a leading economy on the continent for many years, Venezuela is a prime example of the “economic…
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The future of Russian oil exports to India after the Russian invasion of Ukraine
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions against the Russian economy have made it more difficult for Russia to export energy. Upon Russia’s military advance on Ukraine, India was one of the few major powers to adopt a neutral approach and refrain from voting against Russia at the Security Council.…
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Iran has a long way to go to export natural gas to Europe
The energy crisis in Europe, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of diversifying energy resources. Europe’s over-reliance on Russian energy resources and Russia’s use of energy weapons to further exploit the geopolitical dimension led to the issue of finding an alternative to Russian energy sources, after the…