Census reveals Palestinians to surpass 12 million by the end of 2014

Palestinian people living in the occupied territories, Israel and abroad will reach 12.1 million people by the end of 2014, a statistical report has revealed. Of these, 35.4 per cent are predicted to be under 15 years old.

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that 4.62 million Palestinians live in the occupied territories, 1.46 million live in Israel, 5.34 million live in Arab countries and 675,000 in other countries.

“More than one-third of the population, or 1.79 million, people live in the Gaza Strip and about 2.83 million live in the West Bank,” the report said.

According to the report, “about 43.1 per cent of Palestinians living in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip are refugees, 38.8 per cent in the West Bank and 61.2 per cent in the Gaza Strip.”

The report pointed to a decline in fertility rates in recent years, which fell from 6.1 per cent in 1997 to 4.1 per cent during the period of 2011-2013. It also highlighted a decline in the average household size from 6.4 members in 1997 to 5.2 members in 2013 (4.9 members in the West Bank and 5.8 members in the Gaza Strip). Meanwhile, the crude birth rate appears to be declining and is expected to fall from 32.3 births per 1,000 people to 29 births by 2020.

The estimated crude mortality rate, currently at 3.7 deaths per 1,000 people, is expected to fall to 3.4 deaths per thousand by 2020.

The report also made note of the high fertility rate among Palestinians in Jordan compared to those living in Syria and Lebanon; the fertility rate of Palestinian women living in Jordan reached 3.3 births in 2010, compared to 2.5 births in Syria in 2010 and 2.8 in Lebanon in 2011.

The data showed that a majority of the Palestinian community living in Israel, or 35.4 per cent of the population, are younger than 15 years old. The total fertility rate of Palestinian women in Israel was defined as 3.4 births in 2013, a relatively high rate compared with the average fertility rate in Israel, which is estimated at 3.1 births per woman for the same year.

The data predicted that the number of Palestinians living in Israel and the occupied territories will outnumber Israeli Jews by as early as 2016. According to the report, the number of Israeli Jews will decline to 49 per cent of the total Israeli population, or 6.87 million people, compared to 7.14 million Palestinians predicted by the end of 2020.