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Eleven years of Abbas’s rule and three signs of its end

December 25, 2015 at 10:00 am

At the end of 2015, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas will complete 11 years in office, after being elected on 15 January 2005 as the third PA president. This is despite the fact that his constitutional term actually ended in 2009; it has been prolonged by the Palestinian political split and Israel’s wars waged on the Gaza Strip since late 2008.

There do not seem to be any indications within Palestine to suggest that new presidential elections will be held any time soon to bring an end to Abbas’s period in office. The octogenarian made legal amendments to renew his term in 2009 until elections are held at the end of the Palestinian National Council’s term.

A PNC meeting is scheduled to be held at the end of this year after being postponed three times for various reasons, even though it should meet officially once a year and should be renewed every three years. However, it has only met once within the past 24 years, and that was as long ago as 1996.

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Although talk of Abbas’s successor occurs every year, it is gaining great importance with the approach of 2016, the year which may see the end of his rule. Three important signs can be observed.

The first is suggested by a recent opinion poll conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research. The poll showed a decline in satisfaction with the PA president’s performance and a decline in his popularity. It also indicated that 65 per cent of the Palestinians are calling for his resignation.

This popular dissatisfaction is explained by Abbas’s controversial statements and positions. These include his description of Gaza’s Palestinian resistance rockets as “absurd” and his orders to the PA security forces to “kill anyone firing rockets into Israel”.

Abbas also made a rare concession when he said in an interview with Israel’s Channel 2 that he does not have “the right to return” to Safed, from which he was expelled as a child during the Palestinian Nakba in 1948. What is even more dangerous is that he promised to continue his security coordination with Israel, which he has described as “sacred, regardless if we agreed or disagreed” when he hosted Israeli activists at the PA headquarters in Ramallah.

The president has assumed many sovereign positions, most importantly as chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, president of Fatah, and chief of staff of the armed forces. This has allowed him to make unilateral (and unaccountable) decisions affecting Palestine.

There was an assassination attempt on Abbas while he was paying his respects during Yasser Arafat’s funeral. He is considered to be the engineer of the Oslo Accords, which 67 per cent of those participating in the aforementioned poll believe Israel is not adhering to and Abbas is not serious about abandoning.

The second sign is the increased possibility of the PA collapsing in the West Bank in light of the Jerusalem Intifada and the failure of the Palestinian and Israeli security forces’ coordination to quell the uprising and bring calm to the Palestinian street. The “sign” is based on the theory that every Palestinian uprising must result in new political arrangements for the cause. This is supported by the absence of any political will to revive negotiations, despite the efforts of US Secretary of State John Kerry. It is also supported by the PA’s failure to resolve the main issues in the conflict, such as Israel’s illegal settlements, the storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by Jewish settlers and the Judaisation of Jerusalem, and the prisoners’ issue.

Al-khaleejonline has quoted political journalist and analyst Hani Al-Masri as saying that the current intifada is one of the greatest challenges facing the PA, “because in the event that the PA thwarts the popular uprising, as it has in the past, the uprising could turn against it and, in this case, the PA may collapse.”

Al-Masri also stressed that dramatic developments, such as an Israeli terrorist massacre; any radical change in the situation within and status of Al-Aqsa Mosque; a resistance attack that results in the death of many Israelis; the death or resignation of the president before his successor is agreed upon; or a change in the current Palestinian policy from clashes to a confrontation with the occupation authorities, may lead to the collapse of the PA. Senior political sources in Ramallah and Tel Aviv report that the question now is not will the PA collapse, but when.

The third sign is associated with a dangerous challenge facing Fatah, which has witnessed a serious division during the presidency of Abbas that threatens its unity. This occurred after the dismissal of Mohamad Dahlan and a widespread campaign against his supporters in both Fatah and the PA. This campaign reached senior officials within the Ramallah leadership, including former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad and Yasser Abd Rabbo, the former Secretary-General of the PLO.

Those monitoring these events explain them as Abbas’s attempt to “arrange for his successor”, someone who will not hold him accountable after his resignation and preserve his political legacy as well as the legacy of his businessmen sons. According to Haaretz newspaper, the president’s critics say that he is governing a system that is, to a large extent, tyrannical.

The division within Fatah has reached the point where it is unable to choose a vice president or even hold its seventh conference. This makes it difficult to nominate a new presidential candidate in the event that they agree to hold elections, someone who would compete with the candidates nominated by the other factions, such as Hamas, which consider Abbas to be the president of a small group within Fatah.

In this regard, the second deputy speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, from the West Bank, Hassan Kharisha, stressed the importance of holding legislative and presidential elections in order to rearrange Palestinian domestic affairs and allow the legislature to resume its work in a legal manner, away from unilateral decisions and the current monopoly. Kharisha told Al-khaleejonline that “the elections alone will determine the future of Abbas”, noting that “it will be the choice and decision of the Palestinian people.” He added that the people are waiting for a presidential decree from Abbas determining the date of the new elections so that they can choose their next president.

The PLC member also mentioned that Abbas’s failure to support the popular Jerusalem Intifada contradicts the peoples’ aspirations: “They want their leadership to adopt their choices.” He called for the re-activation of Palestinian institutions in order to appoint the ideal politician to match the mood of the current uprising.

Translated from Al-khaleejonline, 23 December, 2015.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.