Is there a new prisoner swap deal on the horizon?

When it was known that the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement in Gaza had captured an Israeli soldier in 2006, Benjamin Netanyahu tried stubbornness and arrogance over the issue of a prisoner exchange deal. The Israeli prime minister was humiliated, though; forced to give in to resistance demands, he agreed to release over 1,200 Palestinian prisoners, 450 of whom were serving lengthy sentences.

At that time, every Israeli demand had a price. The occupation authorities demanded video evidence that Gilad Shalit was still alive; they got it in exchange for the release of 20 Palestinian women prisoners. Netanyahu did all he could to make Hamas back down from this condition but he was met with a negotiations team like no other, so he had to give in. Even though the Israelis had introduced a law to prevent prisoners who had killed Israelis from being part of any swap deal, that law was broken; the occupation released a number of such prisoners in 2011, all in exchange for one Israeli soldier captured by the resistance on active duty along the border.

Since the Israeli offensive against Gaza in summer 2014, the Israeli government does not know how many of its soldiers are missing, whether they are dead or alive, and how many bodies the Palestinians have. It is keeping silent on this topic in public and has told the families of missing soldiers that they are dead; that the resistance has their bodies; and that there are no live hostages. However, the resistance is more credible and knows the reality of how many soldiers have been captured and whether they’re dead or alive. There are indications that the Palestinians have more than one or two soldiers and the resistance has promised an honourable swap deal.

Netanyahu understands such signals and knows what the resistance wants. He is searching for a clue about the exact situation but he knows that he is facing a negotiations team that does not back down; that it is very different to the Palestinian negotiators he is used to; and that it is no less determined than the team that led the talks about the Shalit swap deal. The new team members have learned from the previous group, but Netanyahu hasn’t. They have told him indirectly that they will give no information for free, but he is feigning a lack of interest. He is spreading the illusion that the soldiers are dead and that the resistance only has their bodies. We all know that negotiating for the return of a body is different to negotiating for living soldiers in terms of the price that the occupation authorities will have to pay.

The number of soldiers held by Hamas is known only to its military wing, Al-Qassam Brigades, and opening the door to negotiations will require a price to be paid, but Netanyahu is being evasive and stubborn. He wants his soldiers back for nothing but knows that he will not get what he wants.

In the light of the prime minister’s arrogance, the Palestinian resistance is asked not to give any information. Instead, it should try to move the Israeli public and the soldiers’ families as it did with its earlier video to put pressure on Netanyahu. Pressure from within Israel will break Netanyahu’s false silence and push him to look for a mediator to talk to the resistance, not least because there is now talk of an early election, with his popularity and party slipping in the polls. Netanyahu would be wise to agree a deal with the resistance to boost his image at home.

As such, I would like to tell the resistance to be prepared as the time is right for another round of negotiations about a new prisoner swap like the 2011 deal, only better. My advice is simple: do not allow the occupation authorities to control the time factor as it did with Shalit, which took nearly six years to reach fruition. Hence, one of the conditions set by the resistance should be to set a specific timeframe from the beginning to the end.

Translated from Alresalah, 21 March, 2016

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