Late on Sunday night, the Israeli Air Force launched dozens of airstrikes against targets in the Gaza Strip – as many as 50, according to an official source – after a single rocket had struck Sderot earlier in the day, causing no damage or injuries.
The airstrikes, which primarily struck sites used by Hamas's al-Qassam Brigades (AQB), constituted, in the words of one analyst, a "deliberate escalation" by Israeli authorities.
Since the August 2014 ceasefire that ended 'Operation Protective Edge', Hamas has not fired a single rocket out of the Gaza Strip into Israel. In May, AQB fired mortar rounds in response to Israeli forces' efforts to locate cross-border tunnels – but that's it.
Smaller groups, however, have fired some 40 rockets over the last two years, according to Israeli sources, including 14 in 2016. None have resulted in casualties. This latest rocket launch was reportedly claimed by ISIS-affiliated group Ahfad al-Sahaba.
Israel has typically responded to each rocket with limited strikes on AQB facilities, claiming that Hamas is responsible for all attacks emanating from the Gaza Strip. A deadly such airstrike in March, which killed two Palestinian children, highlighted the – at best – irresponsibility of Israel's approach, which apart from the human cost, has always risked "paving the way towards a new escalation."
So what is behind the new developments? Some Israeli commentators have suggested that Israel seized an opportunity presented by the rocket launch to "deprive Hamas of operational assets." There has also been speculation that the influence of hawkish Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman is behind the intensification in response.
One key question is whether this will now become the standard Israeli response to isolated projectile fire. Hamas spokesperson Ismail Ridwan said that the movement will not allow Israel to "impose new equations and change the rules of engagement" in the Gaza Strip, placing full responsibility for the "escalation and its repercussions" on the occupation.
Ridwan also called for Egypt to "rein in the Israeli occupation", in Cairo's capacity as the sponsor of the ceasefire agreement that ended 'Operation Protective Edge'. Other Palestinian factions slammed the airstrikes, which they admit took them by surprise.
Israel's unprecedentedly intensive series of airstrikes came a few days after Israeli occupation forces in the West Bank arrested Hamas's representative on the Palestinian Central Elections Commission, the body charged with organising October's municipal elections.
Israeli officials are worried that the Palestinian local elections scheduled for October will see breakthroughs for Hamas in West Bank municipalities, and have warned their Palestinian Authority "counterparts" of the risks in allowing the elections to go ahead.
It is clear why Israel has an interest in thwarting or undermining elections in which Hamas is a participant, not least because successful polls with Hamas's involvement are deemed a necessary prerequisite to progress on the stuttering national unity front.
Hamas, for its part, decided to head to elections partly as a result of the challenges the movement is facing – and Israel seems determined to heighten the pressure. Numbers released in the last fortnight confirmed that Israel's blockade on the Gaza Strip actually tightened during July, data that Palestinians in Gaza say "refutes Israel's claims that it has eased the closure of the Gaza Strip."
The blockade persists in spite of warnings by Israeli military officials that Gaza's economic recovery is essential from the point of view of maintaining 'calm'. On Sunday, AQB spokesperson Abu Obeida told a rally in Rafah that "the enemy's [Israel] leadership keeps committing mistakes and repeats the same stupidities by maintaining the siege imposed on our people."
Today, meanwhile, following the recent indictments of Gaza-based World Vision and UNDP employees, Lieberman has sought to revive the idea of linking reconstruction to disarmament.
For Hamas, an unrelenting blockade, intensified periodic airstrikes, and an inability to meaningfully participate in local elections, may mean that the pressure on the movement proves too great.
Veteran Israeli defense analyst Yossi Melman, writing in The Jerusalem Post on what he called the "massive Israeli attack", acknowledged that "Hamas's argument that Israel intends to 'change the equation' is correct." His conclusion was stark: "The seeds for another war were sowed this week."
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