Congratulations to all concerned

Iran has completed its takeover of the border areas between Iraq and Syria and is now expanding into the eastern regions bordering Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor Province. Moreover, the Baghdad-Damascus highway is being inaugurated fully, despite the US endeavours to block the strategic “land corridor”.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah is getting ready for a new campaign to control the Syria-Lebanon border, while Daraa has been saved its daily dose of rockets and barrel bombs, temporarily perhaps, until just after Eid. Yet, Qasim Suleimani, the commander of Iran’s Al-Quds Battalion – who is effectively in charge of Iran’s regional military operations — is adamant about achieving victory and seizing control of the border crossings, including those at Daraa.

There is, thus, noticeable progress on the ground despite the attempt by the Trump administration to curtail Iranian influence, at least within Syria, having already handed Iraq over to Tehran. US strategic options in Syria seem limited. Washington is now trying to avoid an all-out regional confrontation with Iran, which has fortified its position by means of an alliance with Russia, and has therefore complicated any US calculations as a result.

Read: Syrian regime forces continue strikes in Damascus, Daraa, Idlib

What are President Trump’s options after defeating Daesh in Syria and Iraq? How will he deal with the legacy of the organisation? Who will control the land? Which regime or potential regime concurs with US interests?

All signs indicate that Uncle Sam lacks vision and is without a project for the post-Daesh era. This is evident by what is going on in Mosul and the regions seized by the Iraqi army and the Popular Mobilisation Forces, which enjoy massive US air support but function according to an Iranian agenda. These forces have already arrived at the Syrian border in order to secure Tehran’s strategic land corridor to the Mediterranean.

In order words Trump, who took billions of dollars from the Arabs in order to confront Iran, is actually providing a great service to the Iranians within Iraq. The situation in Syria does not seem any better. The Iranians and their allies are already making inroads and seizing control of the land. They are expanding while the Americans are still unable to arrive at a mature vision of what they want there.

The battle of Raqqa does not seem to be any better. There is no post-Daesh vision. Over reliance on the Kurds will have negative repercussions across the region, with regard to relations with Turkey and the local Sunnis who are allied with America.

#WarInSyria

If Washington’s agenda is paralysed, or immature, compared with Iran’s, what can be said about the Arab agenda that is reeling? Initially, the Arabs proclaimed that fighting Iran was a priority but ended up involved in serious internal conflict. Instead of agreeing on a strategic vision, searching for regional coalition forces, such as Turkey, and drawing the articles of the “historic deal” with them, we find these states entering a phase of internal confrontations and polarisation, splitting the Arab world into Islamic forces on one side and their foes on the other. In this way, they have left the playground open for Iran in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, allowing it to emerge as a regional superpower.

The Arab agenda has, today, returned to that of the period between 2013 and 2015, from the military coup in Egypt to the death of King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz in Saudi Arabia. This takes as its priority confrontations with Turkey, Qatar and the Muslim Brotherhood while supporting Sisi in Cairo as if they are putting their own house in order in preparation for a confrontation with Iran. Yet, such an agenda of internal confrontations, polarisation and fragmentation led nowhere in the years 2013 to 2015, apart from a Houthi takeover in Yemen and a destabilising morass at the regional level.

To sum up, everyone is in disarray. The Arabs are shredded and are losing everything. America has no mature strategy. The Turks are bewildered and are torn apart between alliances and understandings with their foes on the one hand and a clash with their assumed allies on the other. In the meantime, the Iranians are the only ones who have a clear project for the region.

Congratulations are due, therefore, to all concerned.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.