Sudan’s warring parties must be willing to talk peace in Geneva

The urgent call for action to avert the starving to death of 2.5 million Sudanese in North Darfur is, ironically, being issued by the warring parties who are ostensibly responsible for the crisis. This week the UN warned of a stage three hunger crisis indicating that a quarter of a million people or perhaps more, could be dead from starvation before the end of September.

In a desperate social media appeal, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which controls that area militarily, blamed the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) for impeding and blocking urgent relief supplies from reaching the area. The initial response by the SAF was to claim that the Zamzam camp housing 220,000 refugees was not in danger. However, reports from aid agencies confirm that the inhabitants of the camp are seriously in need of food and potable water.

Coincidentally, the call for assistance occurred following a personal one-to-one telephone call between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Abdul Fatah Al-Burhan, de facto President of Sudan and head of the army.

Blinken expressed concern about the growing humanitarian crisis in Darfur.

He reiterated the need for an end to the hostilities and the need for the two sides to begin talks, which are scheduled for 14 August in Geneva. The talks will be mediated by the United States, with Egypt, the UN, the African Union and the UAE participating as observers.

“I spoke with him about the need to address the government’s concerns before any negotiations,” said Al-Burhan. He added that he had informed Blinken that the RSF was “attacking and

Power struggle in Sudan, between Genersl Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman al-Burhan and his Deputy Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – Cartoon [Sabaaneh/Middle East Monitor]

Such concern about aid not reaching the affected areas is matched by the Sudanese government’s concern not to allow unsupervised aid supplies being delivered without its control. On Wednesday, the government launched a scathing attack on the UAE, accusing it of undermining Sudan’s sovereignty by advocating for the delivery of humanitarian aid across conflict lines without Khartoum’s consent.

In a strongly worded statement, the foreign ministry in the capital challenged the UAE’s sincerity in expressing concern for the Sudanese people, stating: “If the UAE is truly concerned about the blood and safety of Sudanese citizens, it should cease providing the [RSF] militia with weapons used to kill our people and deprive them of food and aid. Only then will peace be achieved and humanitarian suffering alleviated.”

READ: US asks UAE to stop interfering in Sudan

However, military advisors and commentators are warning against a rush to call a ceasefire or a premature halt in hostilities. Many recall the stalled peace talks that allowed the RSF to regroup and rearm to create new arms supply routes. In addition, with the army’s reticence, former armed groups who once fought against deposed President Omar Al-Bashir are angry they have not been invited to attend talks. This makes the possibility of the talks being successful even more remote. The group led by Mini Arko Minnawi, along with the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), led by Jibril Ibrahim, joined the war in support of the SAF against the RSF last November, after being neutral.

Speculation about the timing of the US approach arose with the announcement of scheduled meetings between Sudan and Russia.

The Russian foreign office confirmed talks with Sudan about boosting its military capacity. Commentators thus believe the talks in Geneva are more about the US not allowing Russia to get the upper hand in the region rather than a genuine desire to end the war and the suffering of millions of Sudanese.

In the last week, military gains prompted the announcement that Al-Burhan may relocate his headquarters to Omdurman on the banks of the Nile opposite the capital Khartoum. Many believe that if the Sudanese Army regains full control of the capital the war will be all but over.

Speaking on national television, Yassir Atta, a committed member of the Islamic movement and a senior officer in the army, revealed that Al-Burhan had talked about handing over the reins of power to his deputy. That was either idle talk or a reflection of the confidence among the leadership and the rank and file that the war is in its final stages.

That confidence has been reinforced by a leaked recording from a leading RSF official who admitted that the provision of services, such as the fixing of the water point in Singa, Sennar State, for the local people was not having the desired effect.

Speaking in a public forum group chat, the official said, “There is no point in fixing water pumps or providing services for the public, by Allah. The Sudanese people ever since the day Allah created them, they are like donkeys and do not do anything unless driven by a stick. This good treatment is wasted on them, there should be no humanitarian work…”

As far as the army is concerned, the strategic decisions made in the coming days will determine in what direction the march to peace will head. If there is an unwillingness to engage in meaningful dialogue in the Geneva talks, the initiative might backfire and the Sudanese government may be viewed as the obstacle towards peace. On the other hand, if too much is given away, the military gains — including those made in Khartoum — may be lost.

READ: UN appeals for Security Council help to combat famine in Sudan

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.