DOHA FORUM 2024: Qatar’s LNG future and the acrobatics between Asia and Europe in a shifting energy landscape

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) father Michael Tusiani, writing in his book From Black Gold to Frozen Gas, How Qatar Became an Energy Superpower, noted that the world energy market has entered an intersection where sustainability, security and affordability must be addressed.

Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of LNG, plays a central role in this process. Its geographical position and enormous gas reserves give it an edge in the Asian and European markets.

As I attended the Qatar Doha Forum 2024, I will share my analysis of Qatar’s LNG future. At the Doha Forum 2024, there was a mix of energy diplomacy, geopolitics and market forces that decide which region (Asia or Europe) will be the backbone of Qatar’s LNG initiative.

Asia: The rising star of LNG demand

Asia is the most important market for LNG demand globally. China, India, South Korea and Japan have dominated LNG imports due to their growing economies, industrial development and rapid urbanisation.

When countries in the region move away from coal to clean energy sources, LNG is an essential decarbonisation bridge fuel. Qatar is unique in its capacity to satisfy this demand.

According to Qatar Energy’s website, Qatar’s North Field expansion project would boost LNG production from 77 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) to 126 MTPA by 2027, maintaining a constant supply for Asia’s rising demand. 

Additionally, multiyear agreements with large Asian buyers, such as China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and Korea Gas Corporation (KOGAS), reflect Qatar’s commitment to the region. Such agreements also bring order and certainty to an otherwise unpredictable market. Asia also presents a market well shielded from the geopolitical uncertainties that inevitably accompany Qatar’s engagements with the West.

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As long as Asia remains focused on growth and energy security, a pragmatic, win-win relationship can exist. For Doha Qatar Energy, that stability provides stable income and cements its reputation as an energy partner of choice.

Europe: A twisted but balanced market

Europe’s energy market tells a different story. Increasing pressure on the continent’s energy security came with geopolitical crises that knocked out Russian gas imports. Qatar, for example, has played an important role in this regard, offering an alternative to Russian gas and a way to diversify Europe’s energy mix.

But, as His Excellency Minister Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi pointed out at the Doha Forum, Europe’s regulatory and economic policies are a serious challenge. The European Union’s carbon border adjustment system and other climate-change policies could unintentionally slow down LNG imports, which provide crucial support to energy security.

Minister Al-Kaabi’s sharp-tongued question, “are you telling us you don’t want our LNG into the EU?” hints at the anxiety of trying to reconcile Europe’s energy demands with its harsh policy climate.

H.E. Mr. Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi speaks at Doha Forum 2024

Witnessing the bold speech of the minister, I analyse that Europe is a very tempting market for Qatar. The continent’s efforts to pursue renewable and hydrogen technologies mirror Qatar’s vision of a diversified energy future. New relationships, such as Germany’s long-term agreements with QatarEnergy, also emphasise the stakes involved in building stronger connections. Europe presents Doha with the opportunity to demonstrate its dedication to energy security and climate ambitions, even in a more difficult policy environment.

Balancing act: Asia or Europe?

Whether Qatar will put its faith in Asia or Europe is not a binary question. Rather, it’s a fine-grained compromise that mirrors the world’s energy market.

Asia’s steady appetite and long-term contracts provide macroeconomic security; Europe’s geopolitical reach offers geopolitical capital and a venue for energy diplomacy.

Relatedly, Qatar’s strategy will inevitably be about diversification. Doha can avoid the downside risks associated with dependence on one market by having a strong foothold in both countries. LNG infrastructure development, including new liquefaction trains and ships, underscores Qatar’s goal of being able to serve demand across continents.

In addition, investment in downstream projects (including regasification terminals in Europe and Asia, for example, cooperation with Exxon Mobil) will ensure Qatar’s capability to cater to multiple markets.

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As former Turkish ambassador to Qatar Mithat Rende highlighted, beyond market forces, Qatar’s LNG future is deeply dependent on its “energy diplomacy”. As demonstrated at the Doha Forum, Qatar uses LNG exports to strengthen global connections and encourage dialogue. It has allowed Doha to operate in increasingly challenging geopolitical contexts, from its strategic relationship with the US to its role as a neutral force in local conflicts.

The global push for energy transition further underlines Qatar’s diplomatic importance. Using LNG as a decarbonising fuel to complement renewables will enable Qatar to establish its standing in a decarbonised world. CCS and blue hydrogen projects, to name just a few, will help solidify Qatar’s green credentials to keep up with Asia and Europe’s sustainability agenda.

The Doha Forum 2024 emphasised the interconnectedness of energy markets and the need for cooperation to solve the world’s problems. Because Qatar is one of the world’s largest LNG exporters, it lies at the centre of this discussion. Through balancing its interests with Asia and Europe, Qatar can build long-term relationships beyond financial exchange to further a shared vision of energy security and sustainable development.

As leaders, policymakers and businesspeople worldwide gather to grapple with the energy transition, Qatar’s message is clear: “Not only is it an energy supplier, it is also an essential collaborator in shaping the future of global energy and world order in peace.” 

Whether in Asia or Europe, Qatar’s LNG will keep showing the way to a greener, safer energy future.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.