After Assad: the hard way out for Syrian refugees returning from Turkiye

The recent fall of Syrian dictator, Bashar Al-Assad’s regime has added new optimism and challenges to Syria’s prospects and the future of democracy. In Turkey, with close to 3.76 million Syrian refugees (UNHCR, 2024), the issue of whether and how those refugees should be repatriated is at its most urgent.

Though Assad’s departure opens up space for reconstruction in Syria, in the reality on the ground – chaotic regime, destroyed infrastructure and continued security threats – the opportunity for large-scale returns is anything but straightforward. Repatriation arrangements must take the rights and dignity of refugees and post-conflict Syria into account.

Since the Syrian conflict began in 2011, Turkiye has carried one of the world’s largest refugee burdens: 70 per cent of all registered Syrian refugees worldwide are located there. This has had enormous social, economic and political consequences.

The Turkish government has spent billions of dollars teaching, medicating and housing refugees. Yet, rising anti-refugee sentiment and economic pressures (Turkiye’s inflation rate reached above 36 per cent in 2024) have pushed their return. From a political perspective, refugee crises have become the target of Turkish elections. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) and opposition parties have all pledged to allow Syrians to return.

OPINION: Liberating Syria forever

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has repeatedly spoken of establishing safe zones in Syria in order to make possible ‘voluntary returns’. By 2024, more than 700,000 refugees had reportedly been relocated back into Turkish-controlled parts of northern Syria. But, now that Assad is gone, it is in different hands, and it is also difficult to see how the transition will be sustainable and respectable.

The truth in the infrastructure in Syria: there’s no infrastructure now

Since the ousting of Assad, Syria has been a series of rippling-out domination. Freedom forces such as Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) control most areas, and Kurdish fighters, ex-Assad forces or city councils do the rest. According to the UN, 16.7 million Syrians are still in need of humanitarian aid, and 6.5 million are internally displaced.

The infrastructure in Syria has been razed, more than half of medical centres are shuttered, and access to basic services such as electricity and running water is limited. Similarly, for returnees, these circumstances are highly perilous. Second, HTS’s rule in some parts of the world raises concerns about persecutory and human rights violations. And, without fully fledged security guarantees and infrastructure rebuilding, coming home to Syria is a far-fetched possibility for most refugees.

Returns are voluntary, safe and dignified 

International law mandates that repatriation for refugees must be voluntary, safe and dignified. In Turkiye, making these values material is an ongoing problem. While many Turkish citizens support swift repatriations to relieve domestic tensions, evicting refugees by force would violate international law and only increase Syria’s instability.

Relatedly, voluntary returns must be planned carefully. Turkiye and international institutions will need to assess the security, government and infrastructure in returning areas. Locations held by HTS or Kurdish troops are not likely to offer refugees the security and stability they need. Returning refugees need housing, employment and basic services. These guarantees leave returnees vulnerable to being displaced again. Because of economic and currency issue, Turkiye cannot bear this burden on its own. It requires coordinated action from the UN, the European Union and Gulf countries to rebuild and monitor returnee safety. What Turkiye will contribute to Syria’s new future is critical. It already controls vast swathes of northern Syria, and has committed to the reconstruction of schools, hospitals and infrastructure in regions such as Afrin and Jarabulus. But now that HTS dominates Damascus, Ankara will need to adapt. It will require working with rebel groups on inclusive governance and provision of basic services.

Furthermore, Turkiye can use its power to lobby for international recognition and aid for post-conflict Syria. The reconstruction will cost billions of dollars, and Turkiye’s diplomatic presence can attract resources. Ankara at home will have to combat rising xenophobia by boosting social unity and dispelling fake news about refugees.

The fall of Assad’s government provides Syria and its neighbours with opportunities and challenges. For Turkiye, the influx of refugees would help reduce domestic pressures and consolidate its geopolitical position in Syria. But unannounced or enforced repatriation would further destabilise the region and break international standards. The post-Assad era offers an opportunity to transform Syria and give millions of refugees a place to go. To keep humanitarian imperatives and domestic demands in check, Turkiye’s strategy will call for diplomacy and cooperation. By insisting on voluntary, safe and humane returns, Turkiye would not only be honouring its moral and legal commitments, but also help the region maintain stability and help Syria recover in the long term. This road is steep, but with preparation and international help, we can transform this moment of disruption into a ground for peace.

OPINION: The end of the House of Assad: How, and why now?

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.