When will Egyptians reclaim the January Revolution?

Next Saturday, Egyptians will mark the 14th anniversary of the 25 January Revolution of 2011, amidst a nostalgic longing for the unfulfilled promises of the uprising and ongoing questions about how to rekindle the popular momentum that toppled the regime of late President Hosni Mubarak after 30 years in power.

This year, the anniversary carries particular significance, coming just weeks after the Syrian revolution succeeded in overthrowing President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime and taking control of the country after 13 years of brutal repression.

A significant segment of Egyptians are still hoping for the possibility of reviving revolutionary alignment among political forces to overcome the security crackdown and economic deterioration imposed by President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi’s regime over the past decade.

Security tensions

A stroll through the streets of Cairo reveals a glimpse of the prevailing security tensions. The Ministry of Interior has declared a state of high alert, supposedly to secure New Year’s celebrations, but opposition figures link the move to developments in Syria.

Tension was evident in a series of arrests, including popular content creator, Ahmed Abu Zeid, and TikTok blogger, Mohamed Ahmed Allam, known as Rivaldo, following videos they posted criticising Al-Sisi’s regime.

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Authorities in Egypt heightened tensions further with the sudden arrest of academic, Nada Moghith, the wife of detained cartoonist, Ashraf Omar, and novelist, Ahmed Serag. The arrests followed comments made by Moghith about her husband’s detention during an interview with the independent platform, Zat Masr. While Moghith was later released, Serag remains in custody for 15 days on charges of “joining a terrorist group, financing terrorism and using a private account on an international network to spread false news”, according to his lawyer.

In recent days, Egyptian security forces resumed targeting publisher and political dissident, Hisham Qassem, who had been released months ago, charging him after he announced plans to continue his activism and launch a new party called The Free Call. The Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights described the move as “indicative of vindictive motives and a desire to punish him for his political criticism.”

Similarly, prominent human rights activist, Hossam Bahgat, was summoned by the Supreme State Security Prosecution over Case No. 6 of 2025, accused of “participating in and financing a terrorist group and spreading false information”. Amnesty International condemned the case as “a malicious attempt to silence dissent and suppress reports on Egypt’s dismal human rights record.”

In Aswan, south of Egypt, the Supreme State Security Prosecution ordered the detention of lawyer and rights activist, Fatma Al-Zahraa Gharib for 15 days over Case No. 1282 of 2024 after she was caught writing anti-Al-Sisi slogans on government buildings.

In a striking development, the crackdown extended to the judiciary. Authorities issued a decision prohibiting judges from speaking, writing or appearing in the media or on social platforms. This came after 48 judges were referred for investigation following complaining about their deteriorating financial conditions in a private online group in November.

Forced absence

Security tensions escalate as the Egyptian regime continues to enforce a state of forced absence on the opposition, including Islamist, liberal and leftist factions. Groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, the April 6 Movement and Ultras football fans, all classified as “terrorist organisations” by the regime, have been severely weakened and infiltrated.

The forced disappearance of political leaders is compounded by the imprisonment of prominent dissidents such as Abdel Moneim Abo Al-Fotouh, Hazem Abu Ismail, Mohamed Adel, Alaa Abdel Fattah, former MP Ahmed Tantawy, founder of the Civil Democratic Movement Yehia Hussein Abdel Hadi, economist Abdel Khalek Farouk, journalist Sayed Saber and others.

Since the 2013 coup, the Egyptian regime has intensified pre-emptive measures, including arbitrary arrests, pretrial detentions and fabricating new cases to crush any potential uprising against Al-Sisi’s rule, no matter how small.

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 Journalist Gamal Sultan, an exiled Egyptian dissident, observed on Facebook: “The regime in Egypt is experiencing noticeably heightened tension these days—whether in Al-Sisi’s behaviour, or that of security forces, parliament and media and its electronic committees. Something unclear is brewing. Is the regime worried about internal challenges, or is it sensing an impending storm of regional and international discontent over its fate?”

Last week, Egypt’s parliament approved Article 79 of the draft Criminal Procedures Law, allowing authorities to monitor telecommunications, social media accounts, emails and other private communications. Critics view the measure as a formalisation of state surveillance.

Assad’s fate

The fragility of the Egyptian opposition and the deep political polarisation—particularly between Islamists and liberals—have strengthened Al-Sisi’s grip on power, enabling him to secure a third term extending to 2030. Yet, anxiety persists among the generals who have held power since President Mohamed Morsi’s ouster in mid-2013.

This unease is evidenced by more campaigns of arrests, flawed legislation and media blackouts aimed at suppressing growing discontent over deteriorating living standards, soaring prices, currency devaluation, mounting foreign debt and contentious issues such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the transfer of Tiran and Sanafir islands to Saudi Arabia.

Adding to the regime’s discomfort are events of Syria’s revolution, particularly a viral video of Egyptian jihadist in Syria, Ahmad Al-Mansour (now detained), calling for Al-Sisi’s ouster and warning that “Al-Sisi will meet the same fate as Assad.”

A political analyst, anonymously quoted by Middle East Monitor, suggested that the recent Syrian developments have alarmed the Egyptian regime. “The successful use of arms in Syria unnerves the regime, raising fears of similar movements in Egypt. Meanwhile, Gaza’s ceasefire reinforces Hamas’s victory, exposing Egypt’s passive stance during the conflict and allegations of Al-Sisi’s complicity in Gaza’s blockade.”

The growing comparisons between Al-Sisi’s rule and Assad’s regime, along with accusations of torture in Egyptian prisons reminiscent of Syria’s notorious Sednaya Prison, have fuelled public anger. Although Al-Sisi recently denied any involvement in killings, saying “two things I’ve never done: killing anyone or taking anyone’s money”, his opponents responded with the hashtag “Your hands are stained with Egyptians’ blood”, accompanied by videos of the 2013 Rabaa and Nahda massacres, which led to the killing of hundreds of Egyptians and followed by the arrests of thousands of Morsi’s supporters.

An anonymous leader of an opposition party commented that the January Revolution’s anniversary comes at a transformative moment. Syria’s victory, Gaza’s ceasefire and Egypt’s deepening economic crises could inspire hope for change. However, the regime’s continued crackdown may lead to spontaneous public explosions sparked by unforeseen events rather than organised calls for protest.

While this year’s commemoration might pass peacefully as in previous years, ongoing repression, exercised by the military rule, could pave the way for unexpected uprisings not driven by political or party symbols but rather by hunger, deprivation and poverty. In such a scenario, Egyptians may, once again, demand “bread, freedom and human dignity”, echoing their iconic chant: “The people want the downfall of the regime.”

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.