A Reuters poll conducted yesterday showed that Egypt’s economy is expected to grow by four per cent in the fiscal year ending in June, as the economy continues to improve thanks to IMF measures.
The median forecast of 19 economists polled by Reuters between 9-20 January predicted gross domestic product (GDP) growth would then accelerate to 4.7 per cent in 2025/26 and 5.0 per cent in 2026/27.
Egypt’s central bank data showed that GDP growth fell to 2.4 per cent in 2023/24 from 3.8 per cent a year earlier, caused by a currency crisis and the war in neighbouring Gaza, which has cut into Suez Canal revenue and slowed tourism.
Egypt signed an agreement in March that included an $8 billion financial reform package deal with the IMF, after securing a $24 billion agreement with a sovereign wealth fund in the UAE the month before to establish a real estate investment project on the Mediterranean coast.
James Swanston at Capital Economics expects the Egyptian economy to grow by five per cent this year, noting: “We are optimistic on the prospects for Egypt’s economy over the next few years.”
“Survey data suggest that the weaker pound has started to benefit export-oriented industries via improved external competitiveness,” he added.
In its World Economic Outlook report released this week, the IMF estimated the Egyptian economy would grow by 3.6 per cent this fiscal year and by 4.1 per cent in 2025/26, while the World Bank predicted growth of 3.5 per cent this year and 4.2% the next. The Egyptian Ministry of Planning expects economic growth of four per cent in 2024/25.
Days before the end of 2024, the IMF announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt on the Fourth Review of the Extended Fund Facility with Egypt, lasting 46 months, which could allow the disbursement of the $1.2 billion tranche. Egyptian Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said Cairo will receive a $1.2 billion tranche from the IMF in January, as part of the loan programme, the details of which were announced last March.