Israel’s threatening shadow over the region: From Gaza and Lebanon to Iran and Turkey

The Middle East, a relentless arena of power struggles, is once again witnessing the emergence of a new and perilous rivalry. While Iran has long been viewed as the epicenter of strategic threats to Israel, today Turkey, with its ambitious ascent toward regional leadership, has drawn Tel Aviv’s attention. Ankara’s growing cultural, economic, and military influence has turned it into a competitor Israel can no longer ignore. This confrontation, unfolding in the concealed layers of diplomacy, economics, and militarism, has not only strained bilateral ties but also endangered the fragile stability of the region. Israel’s recent strike on Syrian territory is the latest symbol of its unchecked boldness in destabilising the Middle East.

A multi-layered rivalry at the heart of the Middle East

Over the past year, the Middle East has experienced deep transformations in the regional distribution of power. Iran’s influence has declined under economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military challenges, making room for new actors to emerge. Turkey, leveraging its unique geopolitical position, NATO membership, and dynamic economy, has become a Sunni power with a voice not just in the region but on the global stage. From Libya to the Caucasus, the Balkans to the Persian Gulf, Ankara’s aggressive diplomacy and military presence have earned it an unrivaled position. But this rapid ascent has sounded the alarm in Israel. Tel Aviv, which for years focused on containing Iran, now faces a rival that not only lacks ideological alignment but also competes in economic, military, and cultural arenas. Recognizing this emerging threat, Israel has redefined its strategies and extended its scope beyond confrontation with Iran. This strategic pivot has ushered in a new phase of geopolitical competition across the Middle East.

To maintain its regional hegemony, Israel employs a mix of soft and hard power tools. Diplomatically, Tel Aviv has strengthened relations with countries such as Greece, Cyprus, and even some Gulf Arab states, forming an informal front against Turkey. These alliances, largely rooted in military and economic cooperation, directly challenge Ankara’s interests in the Eastern Mediterranean and beyond. For instance, energy agreements between Israel, Cyprus, and Greece for gas exports to Europe not only undercut Turkey’s economic position but also threaten its ambitions to become a regional energy hub.

On the military front, Israel exploits its technological superiority to remain active in sensitive regions like Iraqi Kurdistan. Reports suggest intelligence and military cooperation between Tel Aviv and certain Kurdish groups, a development that could destabilize Turkey’s borders. Moreover, Israel’s cyber capabilities, among the world’s most advanced, pose an invisible yet serious threat to Turkey’s digital infrastructure and that of other regional states. These tools, alongside covert operations and political infiltration, reveal the depth of Israel’s strategic efforts to contain its rivals.

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The Eastern Mediterranean: A new battleground

One of the primary theaters of the Israel–Turkey rivalry is the Eastern Mediterranean, now a geopolitical hotspot due to its gas reserves and strategic significance. Turkey’s maritime claims and efforts to expand its naval influence place it at odds with the Israel-Greece-Cyprus axis. Through support for projects like the EastMed pipeline, Israel aims not only to weaken Turkey’s economic position but also to forge an anti-Turkey bloc that isolates Ankara geopolitically.

This competition in the Eastern Mediterranean is not confined to economics. Israel’s increased military presence, including joint exercises with Greece and Cyprus, sends a clear message to Turkey: Tel Aviv is prepared to respond decisively to any Turkish maneuver. These actions, tacitly backed by the U.S. and EU, directly threaten Turkey’s ambitions to dominate the Mediterranean.

Beyond military and economic tools, Israel also leverages soft power to erode Turkey’s influence. By backing powerful lobbying networks in the West, especially in the U.S., Tel Aviv seeks to frame Turkey as an unreliable and destabilizing actor. These efforts, involving media campaigns and diplomatic pressure, aim to diminish Ankara’s international support.

Additionally, Israel’s growing ties with certain Arab states, especially following the Abraham Accords, are designed to drive a wedge between Turkey and the Arab world. This strategy not only undermines Turkey’s cultural and political influence in the region but also challenges its bid for leadership within the Islamic world. Israel’s multi-faceted strategy shows that it aims not just to contain Turkey militarily and economically, but to weaken its standing in the public imagination both regionally and globally.

A widening regional ripple effect

The intensifying Israel–Turkey rivalry carries consequences that go far beyond bilateral relations. It could provoke instability in areas like Kurdistan, the Eastern Mediterranean, and even the Caucasus. For example, Israeli support for certain Kurdish groups in Iraq could escalate internal tensions in Turkey, while the Eastern Mediterranean rivalry could trigger limited but costly military confrontations.

Other regional players, including Egypt, Lebanon, and even Qatar, may find themselves caught in the crossfire. While Israel builds anti-Turkey alliances, Turkey seeks to neutralize them through active diplomacy. The result is a Middle East increasingly vulnerable to tension and instability.

The escalating Israel–Turkey competition, both overt and covert, is a stark warning to all regional states. Israel, through its military, economic, and diplomatic instruments, is not only focused on containing Iran but also on sidelining any emerging rival, particularly Turkey. This multi-pronged threat, from gas deals and military pacts to cyber operations and political influence, reflects Tel Aviv’s deep strategic ambition to preserve its regional hegemony.

Turkey and other Middle Eastern nations must respond with vigilance and coordination. In a world where great powers challenge one another from the shadows, only intelligent strategies and unity can safeguard regional stability. Is the Middle East prepared for this new confrontation, or is it headed toward yet another chapter of turmoil?

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.