China’s spectacular rise

Following President Nixon’s historic visit to China in the early 1970s, many believed that fostering economic ties with China would pave the way for stronger alliances and mutual benefit. This initial optimism about economic integration with China was rooted in the assumption that a rising, prosperous China would inevitably integrate into the liberal international order, embracing democratic values and becoming a reliable partner in global governance. The prevailing narrative was one of convergence, where economic interdependence would catalyze political alignment, reassuring Western powers that China’s ascent was not a threat but a cooperative opportunity. However, political theorist John Mearsheimer argued that such interdependence might expose nations to strategic risks, hinging on China’s growing influence. He posited that a rising power would inherently seek to challenge the established order, regardless of its economic integration. Today, this debate underscores the growing geopolitical divide, where China and Russia find common ground, challenging the Western-led international order and exposing a fundamental miscalculation in Western foreign policy.

From rags to riches: How one man helped create a superpower

The journey from a closed, isolated state to a global economic powerhouse began with a dramatic shift in leadership and ideology. Following the death of legendary Chinese communist leader Mao Zedong in 1976, China was an impoverished, agrarian country still reeling from the chaos of the Cultural Revolution. The “Gang of Four,” a radical faction led by Mao’s widow, drove the country further into the ground, consolidating power through dogmatic purges and ideological rigidity. It was only after their arrest that a more pragmatic faction within the Chinese Politburo, seeking to stabilise the nation, released Deng Xiaoping from political confinement. Having been a victim of Mao’s purges during the Cultural Revolution, Deng emerged as a leader with a clear vision: to modernise China by any means necessary. His leadership marked a profound pivot away from Maoist dogma towards practical economic reform, setting the stage for one of the most remarkable economic transformations in modern history.

Deng’s philosophy, often summarised by his pragmatic approach of “crossing the river by feeling the stones,” ushered in a period known as “Reform and Opening-Up.” He began by opening China’s doors to investment and collaboration with the West, dismantling the rigid state-controlled economy in favour of a hybrid model that embraced market principles. The appeal for Western companies was undeniable: a vast, untapped market and an immense pool of cheap labor. This led to a massive transfer of manufacturing capabilities from the West to China, as multinational corporations relocated their factories to capitalise on the lower production costs, generating billions in profit. Deng articulated this new cultural ethos with his now-famous quote, “It is glorious to be rich”, a radical departure from the collectivist ideals of Mao. This single phrase transformed the mindset of ordinary Chinese citizens, shifting their focus from the drudgery of manual labor to the pursuit of personal wealth and ambition. Advising his colleagues in the Politburo, Deng cautioned them to “abide by your time” to avoid wars and crises that might distract from China’s internal development.

Shortsighted analysis spawning unintended consequences

During this critical period of Chinese modernisation, the West’s primary strategic focus remained fixated on the threat posed by the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, geopolitical strategy prioritised the establishment of economic relations with China as a means to balance Soviet influence. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 altered the global landscape, leaving the United States as the world’s sole superpower. This moment of unipolarity solidified the prevailing view that Western liberal democracy had triumphed and that all nations, including a rising China, would eventually follow a similar trajectory. Influential figures in Western foreign policy championed this perspective.

Among them, political titans like Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski argued against the need to contain China. They posited that a prosperous China would be a democratic China, naturally aligning itself with the West and potentially joining a future coalition against a resurgent Russia. This reasoning, however, proved to be fundamentally shortsighted. Professor John Mearsheimer, a prominent realist theorist, recounts a debate with Brzezinski in 1991 on Tucker Carlson’s show, where he argued for a policy of containing China. Brzezinski, in turn, called for China to get rich, asserting it was an assurance that the nation would eventually become a liberal democracy with free elections and human rights. This debate encapsulates the intellectual divide that shaped subsequent policy, with the prevailing liberal optimism overshadowing realist concerns.

Today, Mearsheimer’s warnings appear prophetic. Contrary to Western expectations, China has not embraced liberal democracy. Instead, it has leveraged its economic power to strengthen an authoritarian state, expand its military, and project its influence globally. Economic interdependence, once viewed as a safeguard for peace, now exposes nations to strategic risks. The geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically, with the emergence of a new power axis: China and Russia. These two nations, united by a shared scepticism of the Western-led international order, have found common ground in challenging the status quo. This alliance, bolstered by economic and military cooperation, stands as a direct consequence of a Western policy that prioritised short-term financial gains and a flawed assumption about the inexorable link between prosperity and political liberalisation.

In conclusion, China’s meteoric rise from a post-Mao agrarian state to a global superpower was a result of Deng Xiaoping’s pragmatic economic reforms and his strategic patience. Nonetheless, a critical misjudgment on the part of Western policymakers and academics who assumed that economic integration would naturally result in political alignment enabled this advancement. The legacy of this flawed hypothesis is the current geopolitical reality, where an assertive and confident China, in alignment with Russia, now poses a significant challenge to the international order that the West once confidently led. The story of China’s rise is, therefore, also a story of the West’s strategic shortsightedness.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.