From cold peace to open tensions: Egypt-Israel relations tested

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s recent description of Israel as an “enemy” at the Doha summit marked a clear fracture in relations between the two countries, which had maintained a workable relationship for nearly half a century. Tensions have been mounting, particularly since the Gaza war that began about two years ago. Although the peace has always been a “cold peace” throughout its 46 years, Israel has consistently remained Egypt’s primary threat, and the Egyptian public has never truly accepted normalisation with Israel. Yet, security and trade ties between the two states grew steadily under American arrangements and pressure in the region. The pressing question today is how long this relationship can remain stable in light of long standing channels of cooperation and coordination, set against steadily escalating tensions between the two sides.

Since Egypt signed the Camp David peace accord with Israel in 1979, the two countries have maintained a steady, if understated relationship, shaped by a deep-rooted sense of hostility that lingered in the minds of Egyptians. The United States played a decisive role in fostering this relationship, approving US aid to Egypt in 1980, the second largest package after Israel’s, on the condition that ties with Israel remain intact. Washington also worked with Cairo on military cooperation, building a defensive system rooted in Western weapons, systems, and training, while upholding the guiding principle of ensuring Israel’s military edge.

On the security front, Camp David and the framework it set for the Sinai region became central in defining the scope of bilateral cooperation. Though collaboration rose in the early 2010s to confront terrorism in Sinai, military and security ties remained bounded by limits, no joint exercises, no wide open partnerships, and no deep military integration.

In 2004, the United States established the Qualified Industrial Zones (QIZ) agreement with Egypt and Israel. The deal allowed Egypt to export goods to the US tariff-free, provided that those products contained an Israeli component. This arrangement boosted Egyptian exports to the American market and expanded Egyptian Israeli industrial cooperation most notably in textiles, chemicals, and plastics under that framework.

The expansion of energy cooperation opened a critical window for mutual interests between Egypt and Israel. It began in 2008 with the construction of the Arish–Ashkelon undersea pipeline, the backbone of gas transfer between the two countries. Initially, the flow moved from Egypt to Israel. But in 2020, after the discovery of Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan gas fields, the direction was reversed.

Today, Egypt faces a severe shortfall in domestic gas production and soaring costs of importing liquefied gas, particularly after the war in Ukraine. Israeli gas delivered through the pipeline has become vital, not only meeting Egypt’s local demand, but also enabling Cairo to export gas to Europe. This underscores the importance of the recently announced Nitzana land pipeline project, which aims to expand gas exports and strengthen energy security.

READ: Israel says security coordination with Egypt, Jordan and UAE continues despite criticism over Qatar incident

Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s recent threat to block a $35 billion gas deal with Egypt, citing alleged Egyptian military violations in Sinai, takes on added weight. The move appears to be part of Israel’s deliberate strategy of generating artificial tension to pressure Cairo.

Israel’s pressure on Egypt mounted after the Gaza war erupted in October  2023, when Israeli officials openly floated the idea of displacing Gaza’s residents into Sinai, an idea Egypt firmly rejected as a direct threat to its national security. Tensions deepened last year after Israel seized control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a move widely seen as a violation of the security arrangements governing the border. Observers noted a clear decline in the level of security coordination between the two countries.

The strain has only grown sharper. Following Israel’s strike on Qatar, new threats emerged suggesting that similar actions could be repeated, not only against Qatar but against any country hosting Hamas leaders. The warning, implicitly directed at Egypt and Turkey, underscored the possibility that they could be next in Israel’s line of fire.

Although American and Israeli think tanks have acknowledged the growing strains in Egyptian-Israeli relations over the past two years, and advised Israel to preserve ties with Cairo given their stabilising effect on the region, particularly in Israel’s favour, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have other ambitions.

Netanyahu has not concealed his strategy toward Egypt. His vision of a “new Middle East” casts Israel, not Egypt, as the hub connecting East and West. His talk of a “Greater Israel” points to long term designs on Egyptian territory, while his persistence in breaching border commitments at Rafah and advancing plans to displace Gazans stand as alarming, concrete indicators of those intentions.

In light of the United States’ unlimited support for Israel, and Egypt’s lack of expectation that Washington would stand by its side if tensions escalate, and in light of Egypt’s worsening economic crisis, particularly in the energy sector, where Egypt imports one third of its energy needs, with gas costing nearly half as much if delivered through pipelines from Israel compared to importing liquefied gas, Israel is pressuring Egypt to push through its plans.

Tensions and developments between the two countries are rising sharply. Egypt has escalated its rhetoric against Israel, declaring that any Israeli attack on its territory would be treated as a declaration of war. Officially, Cairo now describes Israel’s actions in Gaza as ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity, and refers to Israel as “the enemy.” The question is where matters are heading, especially in these fraught moments, as Israel continues its plan to force Gazans, under fire, killing, and destruction, to move south toward the Egyptian Palestinian border.

OPINION: Israel’s strike on Qatar exposes the collapse of Arab security assumptions

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.