Is Brazil signaling a shift in its stance toward Israel after the Gaza war?

As the countdown to the end of the Gaza war continues, diplomatic observers are closely analysing the trajectory of Brazil’s foreign policy toward Israel. The position adopted by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva throughout the war was neither spontaneous nor emotional. It stemmed from a deeply rooted ideological framework that defines the Latin American left’s worldview on justice, sovereignty, and peace.

According to Latin American affairs specialist Ali Farhat, “Lula da Silva has no fundamental issue with Israel as a nation. In fact, Latin American countries were among those that voted in favour of the establishment of Israel. Therefore, the leftist discourse in Latin America does not take a hostile position toward Israel’s existence, but rather adopts a critical stance toward its actions and behaviour.”

During a recent press conference in Rome following his participation in the UN’s World Food Forum, President Lula da Silva expressed optimism regarding the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, describing it as “a real opportunity for a lasting peace.” He also emphasised that “the current dispute between Brazil and Israel is tied specifically to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, rather than to the State of Israel itself.”

This statement reflects not only a pragmatic diplomatic calculation but also what Farhat describes as “an implicit condemnation of the entire Israeli political establishment, since Netanyahu is a product of that system and does not make decisions in isolation. Lula is targeting Netanyahu both as an individual and as a symbol, a way of directing blame toward the broader Israeli government, which he views as complicit in the ongoing atrocities.”

‘Brasil não tem problema com Israel, tem problema com Netanyahu’, diz Lula ao comentar cessar-fogo https://t.co/t4YjsvWd4P #g1 pic.twitter.com/HZoCguaB7n

— g1 (@g1) October 13, 2025

Political differentiation, not diplomatic hostility

Farhat stresses that this approach should not be viewed as a departure from Brazil’s long-standing foreign policy, “This is by no means a shift in Brazilian policy. Brazil has never denied the existence of the State of Israel; on the contrary, it maintains political, commercial, and economic relations with it, and there is also a large Jewish community in Brazil. Lula da Silva is a firm believer in the principle of peace and supports the Palestinians’ right to an independent state in line with UN resolutions, with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

Lula’s outspoken critique of Israel’s conduct in Gaza, including his labeling of the campaign as “genocide,” aligns with the broader humanitarian ethos of the Brazilian left, which historically opposes colonialism and military occupation. Farhat adds that “Lula da Silva was, in fact, the first head of state to describe what is happening in Gaza as a genocide, speaking out with exceptional courage. Only later did Western leaders follow his lead.”

Lula vehemently denounces the genocidal Israeli occupation regime’s bombing of hospitals and homes and the intentional mass killings of babies and civilians pic.twitter.com/TBES1rpkW6

— ☀️👀 (@zei_squirrel) November 15, 2023

Political tensions vs. economic realism

From a business and trade perspective, Brazil–Israel relations have remained largely unaffected by political tensions. Brazilian agricultural exports to Israel, alongside limited imports of Israeli technology and defence equipment, have continued at a steady pace. These economic ties are expected to persist after the war, as food security and technological cooperation represent pragmatic points of convergence that transcend temporary political disputes.

Farhat emphasises the distinction between Brazil’s political position and its economic pragmatism, “Politically, relations remain at a minimal level, ambassadors are not currently in place, but embassies remain operational. There is political tension accompanied by minimal diplomatic engagement; however, economic relations have so far remained unaffected. Trade flows, both imports and exports, continue without interruption.”

READ: Latin America’s Palestinian communities applaud statehood recognition and call for action

Indeed, Brasília’s cautious management of trade with Israel reflects the influence of powerful economic blocs within Brazil, agribusiness, export lobbies, and industrial interests, which exert significant pressure to prevent any escalation that could threaten economic stability. As Farhat notes, “Brazil’s powerful economic sectors make it difficult for any president to take decisions that could disrupt the domestic market or the broader economic trajectory.”

Just four BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa – accounted for 12% of Israel’s total trade in 2022.

All four of whom can realistically be relied upon to apply pressure for #CeaseFirelnGazaNOW #BDSMovement pic.twitter.com/xl0Wm9DOXC

— huzaifazoom (@huzaifazoom) January 13, 2024

The Bolsonaro legacy and the shift in public opinion

Before the Gaza war, support for the Palestinian cause in Brazil had waned due to the rise of far-right politics under Jair Bolsonaro, whose administration cultivated a close ideological alliance with Israel. Farhat points out that “the evangelical wave in Brazil was massive, over 30 per cent of the population adopted a worldview shaped by evangelical ideology. The Bolsonaro era built a climate deeply sympathetic to Israel, framing that support as a matter of religious conviction.”

However, social media engagement and Lula’s consistent messaging on Gaza have reversed much of that trend. “Public opinion in Brazil has shifted considerably,” says Farhat. “A large segment of society now condemns what is happening in Gaza and rejects Israel’s actions. Lula’s voice in international forums has played a decisive role in transforming the national debate.”

At the heart of this policy lies an ideological and emotional connection between Brazil’s left and the Palestinian struggle. Farhat summarises it succinctly, “The Workers’ Party, and Brazil under Lula da Silva, will never abandon the Palestinian cause. This commitment is deeply rooted in their political and moral philosophy. There exists an ideological, emotional, and moral bond between the Brazilian leftist government and the Palestinian cause, a bond that cannot be severed or distanced.”

🇧🇷🇵🇸🇮🇱🏴‍☠️ Presidente Lula discursa na ONU condenando o genocídio em Gaza, enquanto a primeira dama Janja observa sua fala, vestindo uma Kufyia palestina. pic.twitter.com/cT4kgI43sl

— Sou Palestina🇵🇸🇮🇷🇪🇭 (@soupalestina) September 22, 2025

Moral conviction

Ultimately, Brazil’s approach in the post-Gaza landscape will not be defined by hostility but by measured differentiation, maintaining criticism of Israeli policies while preserving diplomatic and economic engagement.

As Farhat concludes, “If the war in Gaza ends and Israel sees a change in leadership, there would be no obstacle to restoring normal relations. Brazil’s dispute is not with Israel as a nation, but with the political and moral direction it has taken under Netanyahu.”

In short, Brazil’s foreign policy is evolving, not reversing, balancing its ethical commitment to human rights with the economic pragmatism of a global trading power. This equilibrium positions Brasília as a credible actor capable of promoting dialogue, reconciliation, and a lasting peace grounded in justice.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.