Report examines risk of Israel-Turkey escalation in Syria and possible Pakistani role

Growing tensions between Israel and Turkey over their competing security interests in Syria have prompted speculation about whether Pakistan could become involved in the event of a broader confrontation, according to an analysis published by Turkish media.

The analysis, published by Turkiye Today, examined the implications of the 18th August Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur airbase in northwestern Syria, which Israeli reports have linked to efforts to prevent Turkey from establishing a military presence at the facility.

The tensions come amid competition over security arrangements and military influence in Syria following the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad’s government.

Analysts cited in the report said a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey remained unlikely, but warned that competing military deployments and security interests in Syria could increase the risk of further escalation.

A former Pakistani military official quoted in the report said Israel was particularly concerned about Turkish efforts to help rebuild Syria’s military capabilities. He also pointed to Israeli military deployments inside Syrian territory and closer to Damascus.

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The analysis also examined whether Pakistan could provide support to Turkey if Ankara were directly attacked, citing emerging defence arrangements involving Pakistan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

Experts quoted in the report suggested that any Pakistani involvement would likely be gradual rather than an immediate direct confrontation with Israel. Possible measures could include logistical assistance and the provision of air-defence capabilities.

However, the extent of any Pakistani obligation to intervene remains unclear. Analysts noted that the language surrounding the defence arrangements is open to interpretation and that relevant agreements involving Turkey have not completed all domestic approval procedures.

As a result, the report concluded that Islamabad would retain considerable flexibility in determining the extent and nature of any response should tensions between Israel and Turkey escalate into direct hostilities.

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