Turkiye’s electricity paradox: More capacity than peak demand, but what comes next?

Turkiye has nearly 127 GW of installed generation capacity, while its summer peak demand reached about 60.4 GW in July 2025. At first glance, that looks like a big surplus. But not every power plant is available when demand is highest. Solar output drops in the evening, wind depends on weather, and hydropower depends on water levels. Plants can also be offline for maintenance or face fuel and grid constraints. So the real question isn’t how much capacity Turkiye has on paper, but whether it can get reliable power to people when they need it. Turkiye generated 362.9 TWh and consumed 360.9 TWh in 2025 annual energy totals that measure something different from peak demand.

What the generation mix reveals

The difference between capacity and actual output is visible in Turkiye’s energy mix. Renewables made up about 62% of installed capacity at the end of August 2026. Yet in 2025, coal supplied 33.6% of electricity generation and natural gas 23%. Hydropower supplied 15.8%, wind 10.9% and solar 10.5%. A technology’s share of installed capacity therefore does not tell us how much electricity it produces over a year, or whether it can produce during a particular evening peak.

The summer peak reflects more than population or economic growth. Heatwaves drive air-conditioning use in homes, offices and commercial buildings. Irrigation can add to demand, while tourism increases activity in some regions during the same season. These pressures can arrive together.

Solar power helps serve daytime demand, but it cannot meet an evening peak after the sun sets. Thermal plants can provide dispatchable supply, but gas generation relies on imported fuel, while coal creates emissions and other environmental costs. Hydropower offers valuable flexibility, but it cannot be treated as unlimited backup when water is scarce.

This is why the apparent two-to-one ratio between capacity and peak demand should not be read as proof of a large, dependable surplus. It is also not proof that the country needs to build a new plant for every unit of future demand. Reliability depends on the capacity that is available at the right time, the strength of the grid, the flexibility to respond to changing conditions and the reserves needed to cover unexpected outages.

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More plants, or a better-balanced system?

Turkiye does not appear to need a broad expansion of conventional power plants simply to meet today’s summer peak. It has met rising demand, including the 2025 record, and its installed capacity is already well above peak load. Adding coal- or gas-fired plants without demonstrating a specific reliability need could raise costs, increase fuel-import exposure and make it harder to reduce emissions.

That does not mean Turkiye can stop investing in generation. The National Energy Plan projects electricity consumption of 455.3 TWh in 2030 and 510.5 TWh in 2035, compared with 360.9 TWh in 2025. Electrification, industrial development and the growth of energy-intensive facilities could increase both annual consumption and peak demand. As those trends unfold, planners will need to reassess how much dependable capacity the system needs and when it will need it. But projected growth alone does not determine which types of plants should be built.

The government’s target of 120 GW of combined wind and solar capacity by 2035 points to an important priority: Turkiye must expand generation while also making sure the system can absorb and deliver it. New wind and solar projects can reduce fuel costs and diversify supply, but their value depends on connections to the grid and on resources that can balance output when the weather changes. Nuclear power, including the Akkuyu project, could eventually provide another source of low-carbon generation, though its contribution will depend on construction and commissioning. Investment decisions across all technologies should be tested against cost, delivery timelines, fuel security, emissions and the system’s needs during critical hours.

Exports are part of the answer

Turkiye could make better use of periods when domestic generation exceeds demand by selling electricity to neighbouring markets. By the end of July 2026, the country had exported 2.3 TWh and imported 0.8 TWh. That gave it a net export balance of 1.5 TWh, while showing that the country still traded in both directions. Imports can help meet needs in a particular period even when exports exceed imports over a longer period.

As wind and solar capacity grows, exports could turn some periods of abundant generation into revenue and support closer regional power links. But the installed capacity in Turkiye cannot all be exported just because it exceeds domestic peak demand.

Electricity trade depends on the interconnection capacity of transmission lines, congestion within the domestic grid, market arrangements and whether neighbouring countries need power at the same time.

An Ember report put Turkiye’s export interconnection capacity at about 2.1 GW in 2025, illustrating the limits on how quickly exports can grow without new infrastructure.

Turkiye’s location gives it an opportunity to strengthen electricity trade between Europe, the Caucasus and the Middle East. Cross-border links could improve regional balancing and give renewable producers access to a wider market. Yet exports should support, not undermine, domestic security of supply. Turkiye will need clear rules for cross-border trade and enough domestic capacity to serve its own consumers during heatwaves or other periods of system stress. New interconnections should be judged by their likely use, cost and contribution to reliability, rather than by the ambition of turning the country into an electricity hub.

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Make the grid and flexibility a priority

The biggest constraint on using more renewable power may not be a shortage of generating capacity. It may be the ability to move and balance electricity. Wind and solar plants are not always located near major demand centres. If transmission lines and substations cannot carry their output, renewable electricity may be curtailed even when the country has a need for power elsewhere. Turkiye has identified major investment needs for its electricity network, including high-voltage transmission upgrades. Reuters has reported that the government is seeking World Bank financing for grid investment, including high-voltage direct-current lines.

Storage and flexible demand can help the system use existing assets more effectively. Batteries can store some midday solar generation and release it later, when output falls. Hydropower reservoirs can provide balancing, subject to water availability. Neither option solves every reliability challenge, but both can reduce the need for power plants that would operate only during a limited number of peak hours. Better forecasting, grid management and electricity-market rules that reward flexibility would also help operators match supply to demand.

Demand can be made more flexible, too. Electric vehicles can be charged when electricity is plentiful, rather than all at once during evening peaks. Some industrial processes can shift their electricity use without disrupting production. Efficient air-conditioning and better building design can reduce the amount of power needed during heatwaves. These measures will not remove the need for new generation as the economy grows, but they can limit peak demand and reduce pressure on the grid.

COP31 should focus on delivery

Hosting COP31 in Antalya in November 2026 gives Turkiye an opportunity to connect electricity planning with its climate agenda. The COP31 Presidency has proposed raising electricity’s share of global final energy demand from just over 20% today to 35% by 2035.

Its clean-energy priorities also include grids, storage, flexibility, efficiency and sustainable cooling—all relevant to Turkiye’s own challenge of meeting rising demand while integrating more renewables.

Turkiye can use the summit to show how electrification can be supported by reliable, cleaner power. That requires more than announcing capacity targets. It means demonstrating progress in connecting renewables, reinforcing the grid, improving efficiency and managing the role of coal and gas as new sources come online. The test will be whether investment delivers dependable electricity, lowers exposure to imported fuels and reduces the emissions intensity of generation as consumption rises.

Turkiye does not face a choice between building more plants and exporting electricity. It needs to add generation where system planning shows a need, while giving equal attention to transmission, storage, flexibility and cross-border connections. More exports can make use of surplus power, but they cannot substitute for domestic reliability. The gap between installed capacity and peak demand is a reason to plan carefully: it is neither proof that Turkiye needs no more generation nor a case for building conventional plants without clear justification.

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