Yemen’s war is closer to Indonesia than it looks

Yemen, a country at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, is about 7,000 kilometres from Jakarta. It feels far away. But this month, its war came closer to Indonesian families, workers and prices.

Yemen has had a civil war since 2014. On one side is the Houthi movement, officially called Ansar Allah, or “supporters of God.” Backed by Iran, it controls the north and the capital, Sanaa. Against it stands the official government, backed by Saudi Arabia. A 2022 truce brought four years of calm, but the war restarted in July.

In early September, the Houthis took the port of Mocha and nearby Perim island. This gave them control of Yemen’s side of the Bab al-Mandeb, a narrow sea passage on the main shipping route between Asia and Europe. About 12 percent of world trade passes through it.

Gulf oil has two main sea gates. One is the Bab al-Mandeb. The other is the Strait of Hormuz, next to Iran. Since the United States and Israel went to war with Iran in February, traffic there has fallen from about 100 ships a day to about 28 in July. Now Iran’s partner sits beside the first gate. Together, the two hold strong pressure over world trade and oil.

This touches Indonesia in four ways.

First, Indonesian students.

Around 8,000 Indonesians study in Yemen, many in Hadramaut, a region whose ties with Indonesia go back centuries. When Mocha fell, 74 of them were there.

The Foreign Ministry said the town was fairly calm and saw no need yet for an evacuation plan. But Indonesia’s embassy for Yemen works from Oman, which would slow any rescue.

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Second, Indonesian sailors. On 11th August, Houthi missiles hit a cargo ship in the Bab al-Mandeb. Yemen’s government reported an Indonesian among the dead, while Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that one of three Indonesians on board was missing. For the families of the many Indonesians who work at sea, Yemen is very close.

Third, money. Indonesia buys more oil than it sells. When ships avoid Yemen and sail around Africa, oil prices can rise. The government must then spend more to keep fuel cheap, leaving less for schools, hospitals and roads. In 2023 and 2024, Houthi attacks pushed the cost of shipping goods from Asia to Europe up by more than half. Exporters and shoppers paid the price.

Fourth, the Yemeni people. More than 82,000 fled their homes in early September, in a country already hurt by years of war.

So what comes next? Neither side looks ready to give up or strong enough to win. The likely picture is a long war, like Sudan’s, before both sides are forced to talk.

Each side has a weakness. The government side is split into “eight armies.” Saudi air attacks can slow the Houthis but not remove them, and the United States has refused to join the fight directly. The Houthis may have won “a tactical gain but a strategic trap.” A long coastline is hard to defend.

Four paths now seem possible. Most likely, the Houthis keep the coast while their enemies are busy elsewhere. The others are a long and costly fight; a government comeback, needing unity and foreign planes and warships, though the Houthis could still hit ships; or a deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran that unites Yemen.

Iranian leaders have praised the Houthi gains, and the group now appears to give Tehran more power against Washington. So peace in Yemen may hang on that bigger war.

Indonesia’s position is unusual. As the largest Muslim country, with ties to Saudi Arabia, Iran and the West and no military alliance, it has some trust on all sides but little power over Yemen’s armed groups. Its main tools are words and aid.

For Indonesia, this means a long period of risk. Shipping costs and oil prices will likely stay high while the Houthis hold the Bab al-Mandeb, even on quiet days. Students there may face years of uncertainty. A wider war in Saudi Arabia could also touch Indonesians working there or going for Hajj and Umrah.

Yemen is far away on the map. But through Indonesia’s students, sailors and fuel prices, its war is already part of Indonesian life, and will likely stay so.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.