Israel’s elections: Netanyahu wants more than victory; he wants to stop others from governing

Opinion polls in Israel tell us many things, but they do not tell the whole story. Sometimes Netanyahu’s bloc appears close to returning to power. At other times, the “change” bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot moves ahead. 

But behind these changing numbers lies a more important reality: neither Netanyahu nor his opponents have an easy path to forming a government. This is where the crisis begins.

The problem is not just the number of seats. It is who can turn those seats into a government. Netanyahu knows that his bloc may not reach 61 seats. So his goal is no longer simply to win a clear majority. It is also to stop his opponents from building a majority that can govern. In other words, if he cannot govern, he wants to make sure that others cannot govern either.

This is the real political game.

Polls only offer a picture of the moment, but they cannot decide the final result. Some small parties are close to the minimum share of votes needed to enter parliament. If they cross that threshold, they may add several seats to Netanyahu’s bloc. If they fail, their votes will not translate into seats, changing the whole calculation. This makes figures such as Ofer Winter and smaller right-wing lists part of a wider struggle: will they enter parliament or fall short? And will they help Netanyahu or hurt him?

Netanyahu understands these details well. He manages the right like a chessboard. He wants to weaken rivals within his own camp, but he does not want their votes to go to waste. He wants to limit Ben-Gvir’s growing influence, but he does not want the right to lose valuable seats. He may attack certain figures today, then need them tomorrow to stop the change bloc from forming a government.

These are not ordinary elections. They are a battle for Netanyahu’s political survival.

But the most sensitive factor is not only the right. It is the Arab voter. If turnout among Arab citizens of Israel reaches 65 percent or 70 percent, the whole balance could change. Arab parties cannot form a government on their own. But they could prevent Netanyahu’s return or give the change bloc a chance to govern through direct or outside support.

This is why two numbers worry Netanyahu: the seats won by his Jewish Zionist opponents and the turnout among Arab voters.

If the change bloc cannot reach 60 or 61 seats without Arab parties, it will face a difficult question: will it dare to form a government that depends on Arab support? Or will it step back because it fears a campaign of hostility and accusations?

Netanyahu knows this weak point. The Israeli right has long used hostile messages against Arabs. Any government that includes an Arab party or even relies on its support from outside the coalition, would face fierce attacks from its first day: “an illegitimate government”, “a government supported by Israel’s enemies”, or “a government that puts security at risk”. This language is not new. But it could become even stronger in a tense political moment.

READ: Axios: Netanyahu discussed joint strike on Iran with Trump before Israeli election

Therefore, Netanyahu’s goal may be simple: to create a political deadlock. If he cannot govern, and Eisenkot or the change bloc refuses to rely on Arab support, Israel could face another election. Netanyahu would then remain prime minister of a caretaker government. For him, that alone would be a gain.

But the danger goes beyond parliamentary calculations. There is a bigger question: will the elections take place normally? And will Netanyahu accept the results if he loses?

This question is no longer just political speculation.

Some voices in Israel have raised concerns about a scenario similar to 6th January in the United States: rejecting the results, making claims of fraud, mobilising supporters and challenging the legitimacy of the outcome. It may not happen in the same way. But the fact that people are discussing it shows how deep the political crisis has become.

There are also concerns about attempts to disrupt voting, especially in Arab towns. These could involve false information, AI-generated videos, or far-right observers creating tension at polling stations. Security warnings could also be used to frighten people away from voting. In a close election, large-scale fraud is not necessary to change the result. Reducing turnout in certain places may be enough.

This brings us to the role of the police. Trust in the police is already weak, especially among Arab citizens. Crime is widespread, people feel unsafe, and many have little confidence in the police’s ability to protect their communities. If the police are already distrusted in everyday life, what role will they play on a sensitive election day? Will they protect polling stations fairly? Or will they become part of the problem?

These questions make the coming elections a test for Israel’s entire political system. They are more than a contest between parties. Israel often speaks about its democracy. It now faces a simple question: can it manage a normal transfer of power if the result goes against its most powerful political figure?

Netanyahu has built his strength around the idea that he is the only person capable of governing. But he now faces a dilemma: he may be unable to form a government, while finding it difficult to accept someone else doing so.

His battle therefore has two sides: winning votes and deciding whose right to govern is accepted. He wants to present his own victory as legitimate, while portraying a government supported by Arab parties, or formed without his bloc, as a danger to the state.

This is the most dangerous point.

Democracy does not collapse only when elections are cancelled. It can also collapse when election results lose their meaning. It can weaken when Arab votes are treated as unacceptable unless they serve the right. It can break down when one side accepts the result only if it wins. And it can suffer when security becomes a permanent excuse to restrict political life.

Israel’s political situation does not mean that Netanyahu is finished. Nor does it mean that the change bloc has won. But it suggests a new period of political instability. No side has a comfortable majority. Arab voters could become decisive. Small right-wing parties could determine the future of the wider right. And Netanyahu may prefer political chaos to leaving power.

The real question, then, is not simply: who will win the election? The deeper question is: will Israel’s political system accept a result that Netanyahu cannot control?

OPINION: 7th October: The earthquake that put Palestine back at the centre of the world

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.