Israel votes Tuesday in closely contested election as Netanyahu faces challenge from Eisenkot

Israelis head to the polls Tuesday in a closely contested parliamentary election that could end Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s long rule or leave the country facing another political deadlock, with neither major bloc projected to secure a governing majority, Anadolu reports.

The vote will be Israel’s first general election since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks and the subsequent Israeli offensive on the Gaza Strip, as well as military confrontations with Lebanon and Iran.

It will also be the first Israeli general election held on schedule since 1988, following decades in which successive governments collapsed before completing their four-year terms.

Around 7.3 million people are eligible to vote, including approximately 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel.

Voting will take place at 12,018 polling stations, with approximately 18,000 ballot boxes deployed nationwide.

Most polling stations will open at 7 am (0500GMT) and close at 10 pm (2000GMT). Election day is a public holiday.

Thirty-seven parties and electoral lists are competing for seats in the 120-member Knesset, where a governing coalition requires the support of at least 61 lawmakers.

Under Israel’s proportional representation system, voters choose parties rather than individual candidates. Parties must secure at least 3.25% of valid votes to enter parliament.

No party has ever won an outright Knesset majority, making coalition negotiations decisive in determining who becomes prime minister.

Eisenkot’s party leads final polls

Final surveys published by Israel’s three main television broadcasters put former military chief Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party narrowly ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud.

Yashar is projected to win 22 to 23 seats, compared with 19 to 21 for Likud.

The B’Yachad, or Together, alliance led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid is projected to finish third with 14 or 15 seats.

Other opposition parties include the Democrats, led by former general Yair Golan, and former Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beytenu.

The three surveys project Netanyahu’s right-wing and religious bloc winning 50 seats, while the opposition bloc is forecast to secure between 52 and 56.

Palestinian-led parties are projected to win a combined 14 to 16 seats.

The figures suggest that neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to the 61-seat majority needed to form a government.

Winning the largest number of seats does not automatically determine who becomes prime minister.

President Isaac Herzog will consult the elected parties before assigning the task of forming a government to the lawmaker considered most likely to command a parliamentary majority.

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Netanyahu fights for political survival

Netanyahu, 77, is seeking another term after serving as prime minister for more than 18 years across three separate periods.

His campaign has focused heavily on national security, portraying his experience and military policies as essential to confronting regional threats.

However, he faces criticism over his government’s failure to prevent the Oct. 7 attacks, its handling of subsequent conflicts and its opposition to establishing an independent state commission of inquiry into the security failures.

Netanyahu is also standing trial on corruption charges, which he denies, and faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant over war crimes and crimes against humanity in Gaza.

His potential coalition partners include far-right parties led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, alongside the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties.

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have advocated expanding illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank, rejected Palestinian statehood and encouraged Palestinians to leave Gaza.

The ultra-Orthodox parties have meanwhile faced mounting criticism over demands to preserve military-service exemptions for religious students as the Israeli military struggles with personnel shortages after years of conflict.

Eisenkot offers change in leadership, no major shift in security issues

Eisenkot, 66, served as chief of the Israeli military from 2015 to 2019 and joined Netanyahu’s emergency government following the Oct. 7 attacks.

He later left the government after criticizing Netanyahu’s management of the Gaza offensive and the absence of a clear political strategy.

His son was killed while serving with the Israeli military in Gaza in December 2023.

Eisenkot has campaigned on government accountability, political stability and restoring public confidence in state institutions.

He supports establishing an official inquiry into the Oct. 7 security failures and ending broad military-service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men.

Despite positioning himself as an alternative to Netanyahu, Eisenkot maintains similar positions on several major security issues.

He opposes establishing a fully sovereign Palestinian state under current conditions and says Hamas’ military capabilities and rule in Gaza must be dismantled.

The election therefore presents voters with competing approaches to leadership, governance, judicial independence and relations with far-right parties, even as the two leading candidates share positions on key security issues.

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Arab parties could hold balance of power

The Joint List and Ra’am, the principal parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, could play a decisive role if neither major bloc secures 61 seats.

Polls project the Joint List winning around nine seats and Ra’am securing between five and seven.

An Eisenkot-led government could require support from one or both Palestinian-led parties, either through formal coalition participation or outside parliamentary backing.

Such an arrangement would face political obstacles.

Lieberman has rejected joining a government dependent on Palestinian-led parties, while other opposition figures have been reluctant to commit to such an agreement.

Netanyahu has repeatedly invoked the possibility of Palestinian-led parties influencing the next government to mobilize right-wing voters.

Coalition scenarios, possible deadlock

Several possible outcomes could emerge from Tuesday’s vote.

Netanyahu could form another government if his bloc secures enough additional seats or attracts lawmakers from outside his existing alliance.

An Eisenkot-led coalition would likely depend on an agreement involving Palestinian-led parties, defections from other camps or difficult compromises among ideologically divided opposition leaders.

A unity government involving Likud and major opposition parties is another possible arrangement, although Eisenkot and several allies have ruled out serving under Netanyahu.

If neither side assembles a majority, Netanyahu could remain caretaker prime minister during prolonged coalition negotiations, potentially leading to another election.

The performance of smaller parties polling near the 3.25% electoral threshold could prove decisive. Parties that fail to meet the threshold win no seats, potentially weakening their political allies and shifting the balance of power between the competing blocs.

Exit polls are expected immediately after voting ends at 10 pm local time Tuesday.

Initial official results will begin emerging overnight, although counting ballots from military personnel, hospitals, prisons and other special voting arrangements could take several days.

Official results are scheduled to be published by Nov. 4, after which coalition negotiations could continue for weeks.

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