Israel’s next government must end Gaza’s catastrophe

Israel’s Arab voters have made themselves impossible to ignore. The question now is whether the country’s political leaders will accept their elected representatives as partners in shaping its future. The answer will shape both the next government and the prospects for peace.

By the morning of 29 October, reporting on the unfinished count converged on 53 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s camp, 48 for the opposition grouping led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot and 19 for Arab-led parties. These are provisional figures, not a final allocation or a coalition agreement. Netanyahu remains in office, and neither principal camp has secured an absolute parliamentary majority.

Before the election, I wrote: “Netanyahu does not necessarily need his opponents to lose. He needs them to remain unable to govern together.” Former Israeli Foreign Minister Shlomo Ben-Ami had highlighted that dilemma at The Economist’s summit in Thessaloniki, where I was also a speaker. The emerging result strengthens the warning. It does not establish who will govern.

The arithmetic has changed since the early count. A 53-seat Netanyahu bloc would need eight additional supporters to reach 61, rather than the four implied by the earlier 57-seat projection. Eisenkot’s 48 and the Arab parties’ 19 would total 67. But adding seats cannot settle disagreements about policy, identity or participation. Representatives cannot be assigned to a coalition without their consent.

Democrats leader Yair Golan has urged cooperation with Arab parties. The Associated Press has reported conditional openness from Eisenkot’s camp, while other prospective partners remain resistant. Conditions concerning Israel’s identity, Hamas and military service obligations present substantial obstacles. The distinction matters: there is neither an agreed partnership nor a basis for assuming that negotiations are impossible.

The United Arab List (Ra’am), led by Mansour Abbas, has sought a place in government. Joint List leaders have indicated willingness to help replace Netanyahu, including through support for a minority government, subject to their demands. These approaches should be negotiated seriously. Public safety, housing and fair public investment require enforceable commitments. Arab representatives must retain the freedom to disagree, including over the treatment of Palestinians beyond Israel’s borders.

Netanyahu’s route also remains uncertain. Leading the largest bloc does not automatically confer the first mandate to form a government. President Isaac Herzog must consult the parliamentary groups. The first nominee then has 28 days from assignment, with an extension of up to 14 days at the president’s discretion. The clock does not start on election night.

Sixty-one seats provide an absolute majority, but they are not an invariable requirement for winning an initial confidence vote: abstentions can allow a government to take office with fewer votes in favour. Outside support may therefore matter. The harder task is sustaining the cooperation needed to govern.

Coalition arithmetic must not obscure the Palestinian suffering inflicted by the genocide in Gaza prosecuted under Netanyahu’s leadership. UNICEF reported at least 21,700 children killed in Gaza between October 2023 and June 2026. The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, citing Gaza Health Ministry data, reported that 11,301 women’s deaths had been recorded in hospitals by 7 October, 2026. These are human lives, not a footnote to an election. Innocent civilians cannot be made to pay for the crimes of Hamas, and no claim of security can excuse the abandonment of children’s protection.

The devastation extends to those who survive. In October, the UN’s International Organization for Migration reported 1.8 million people living in displacement sites and nearly two million in need of shelter assistance. UNICEF said 800,000 children remained displaced, most living in tents or dangerous bombed-out buildings. For families with no safe home to return to, this is a daily struggle for survival. Netanyahu and his government bear political responsibility for the conduct of the genocide and the restrictions that compound this suffering. Accountability, unrestricted humanitarian relief and safe homes must be central to any claim of a new beginning.

The first mission of any new government must be to end the catastrophe in Gaza: stop the killing of civilians, ensure unrestricted humanitarian access and enable safe shelter and reconstruction. Replacing Netanyahu alone would not deliver that change. Eisenkot’s stated opposition to Palestinian statehood is a substantial obstacle. Any incoming government should be judged by its protection of civilians, humanitarian access, response to settler violence and willingness to make Palestinian sovereignty achievable.

Netanyahu still faces pending corruption cases involving charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, all of which he denies. Coalition bargaining must not shield any leader from judicial scrutiny. Accountability for the failures surrounding 7 October and judicial independence must survive these negotiations.

Equal citizenship inside Israel and Palestinian self-determination are distinct obligations. Arab participation in an Israeli government cannot substitute for an independent, sovereign and viable Palestinian state. A two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as Palestine’s capital, must be the explicit objective. Palestinians need a territorially contiguous state alongside Israel, with security and dignity for both peoples.

This cannot remain a promise deferred indefinitely: diplomacy must establish a credible timetable and resist the settlement expansion and annexation that undermine its fulfilment. Nor should Palestinian citizens of Israel have to abandon concern for Gaza and the West Bank to be accepted as political partners. Criticism of Israeli government policy must remain directed at those responsible, without collective blame against Jews or Israelis.

In my earlier articles, I argued that lasting security requires peace and that Europe’s peace project needs deeper cooperation with Türkiye. Those principles now demand practical diplomacy. Ankara, European capitals, Washington and Arab partners should connect Palestinian-led reconstruction with concrete steps towards a two-state solution and effective security guarantees for both states. They should support accountable Palestinian institutions and make clear what verified progress would unlock.

As a former EU minister and chief negotiator, I know that agreement requires sustained work across genuine differences. Governments must protect their citizens while recognising that their neighbours also need a future free from fear. Israeli security and Palestinian freedom must advance together. A Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders is essential to a durable regional peace.

The next government will be assembled through negotiations. Its legitimacy will also be tested by whose voices it recognises and what future it offers. Israel’s Arab voters have opened a possibility. Political leaders must now turn that possibility into meaningful inclusion and a credible path to peace.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.