Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Mahan Abedin
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A confrontation is looming on the Iraq-Syria border
Reports that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have warned Iraqi Shia militias not to enter SDF-controlled territory are, on the face of it, a potential addition to the complexity of the conflict in Syria. The SDF is dominated overwhelmingly by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian Kurdish militia...
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The perennial dilemmas of British counterterrorism policy
Last week’s terrorist atrocity in Manchester has intensified the seemingly endless debates about British counterterrorism. The two most contentions features of this debate are centred on the roles of ideology and foreign policy as both causes and drivers of terrorist threats. The course and eventual resolution of these policy dilemmas...
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Iran and US set to clash in Syria
Last Thursday’s US strike on a pro-Iranian armed group in the desert west of Syria’s Al-Tanf is being widely interpreted as a significant escalation in the Syrian conflict. The incident is all the more serious if reports that not only Iraqi militiamen but also Iranian military personnel were targeted...
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Hamas and Iran: A new era?
As the reactions to Hamas’ new charter continue apace, one important omission or at least something that has been under-reported is Hamas’ relationship with Iran. Long regarded as strong partners, the relationship between Iran and Hamas came under enormous strain following the latter’s decision in February 2012 to endorse the...
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Hamas’ strategic quandary
The release of a new policy document by the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) has touched off a flurry of speculation as to the real political and strategic motives behind the apparent policy shift. Coupled with the election of the Gaza-based Ismail Haniyeh as the new leader of Hamas’ political bureau,...
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Turkey and US clash in northern Syria
Last week’s Turkish airstrikes on People’s Protection Units’ (YPG) positions in northern Syria and north-western Iraq followed by clashes between Turkish border guards and YPG forces have dramatically raised the stakes in the scramble to determine the political landscape of Syria’s Kurdish-majority region. Whilst at operational and tactical levels the...
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Turkish ambitions set to grow in the wake of referendum
Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory in the Turkish constitutional referendum has been widely interpreted in Europe as amounting to a shift away from democracy. Some observers have gone even further by pontificating on the end of the Turkish republic. These hyperbolic characterisations are obscuring the real significance of the referendum, which...
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US still dogged by strategic deficit in Syria
The US missile strike on Syria’s al-Shayrat air base earlier this month has raised expectations of a more muscular American policy in Syria in the advent of the Donald Trump administration. This is reinforced by Trump’s aggressive leadership style which has seen a dramatic spike in US military activity...
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Symbolic US strike on Syria exposes America’s weakness
The US strike on Syria’s al-Shayrat airbase has dramatically, if not momentarily, restored a sense of overbearing American hegemony in the Near East. By deploying superior intelligence collection and military assets the United States was able to conduct a precision strike on a symbolic target and send multiple messages...
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Tensions in Russia-Iran ties
The visit to Moscow last week by Iranian president Hassan Rouhani has been widely interpreted in the West as the latest sign of strengthening ties between the two states. Whilst Rouhani’s two-day visit was dominated by trade and economics, in particular Russian investment in the Iranian energy sector, Syria and...
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The myth of an Iranian-Egyptian rapprochement
Since early 2014 there has been a flurry of speculation on the apparently steadily improving relations between Egypt and Iran. A wide range of issues including the fight against Daesh, tourism and increasingly convergent views on the Syrian conflict are cited to support the thesis of a potential rapprochement. Without...
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Iraq faces uphill task in reintegrating Mosul
The fight for Mosul is in its final weeks and expectations are rising of a successful Iraqi reintegration programme that not only eradicates Daesh from The country but more broadly reverses the tide of sectarianism at a national level. By any measure, this is an uphill task complicated by multiple inter-related internal and external...
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Mosul recapture set to sharpen divide between Baghdad and Erbil
As Iraqi forces press home their advantage in the final stage of the recapture of Mosul, attention is increasingly focussed on the aftermath of the ejection of Daesh from the northern Nineveh province. While there is ample reason to worry about the continuation of sectarian tensions in Nineveh, and the...
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Iran’s Palestine conference was designed to shore-up Tehran’s regional position
In late February, Iran hosted its first “International Conference in Support of the Palestinian Intifada” in six years. First held in 1991 – and again in 2001, 2006, 2009 and 2011 — these high-profile conferences are an important feature of Iran’s regional policy, effectively acting as a focal point...
