Creating new perspectives since 2009
Items by Marwan Kabalan
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How did the fall of Assad change the face of the Middle East?
If asked to identify major milestones that have shaped the Middle East over the past hundred years, they would most likely be the First World War (1914-1918); the 1948 Nakba in Palestine; the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran; the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in 1990; and the US-led invasions of…
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Three notes on the margins of the Syrian transition
I still believe that it is unfair to pass judgment, evaluate the performance, or criticise the new Syrian administration in power, while it has not yet completed two months in power. This can happen in a stable country, with solid institutions, a strong economy, abundant resources, a modern administrative system,…
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Why does Syria need a fast transition plan?
Although more than six weeks have passed since the fall of the Assad regime, and the general relief with which the world has met the change in Syria (despite acknowledging the existence of concerns and reservations among many regional and international parties), the new authority in Damascus still does not…
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Syrians’ preferences in the US elections
With the US presidential elections approaching and the competition between the Republican and Democratic candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, intensifying, the world is eagerly awaiting to see who the new occupant of the White House will be, and the impact of this on US foreign policy and international relations.…
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Turkiye’s expected foreign policy with Erdogan again at the helm
The Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections have been decided after a battle over the country’s identity and political orientations. Most of the attention within regional and international circles is now focused on any possible changes in Turkiye’s foreign policy, especially following the appointment of intelligence chief Hakan Fidan as foreign…
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Kadhimi’s last chance
There is no need to wait for the result of the investigations committee to guess who was behind the attempted assassination of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi at dawn last Sunday. The Fatah Alliance militias, led by Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq and Kata’ib Hezbollah, are loyal to Iran and have viewed…
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Is it still possible to prevent the collapse of Syria?
Syrian intellectuals and activists from across political and intellectual spheres are busy searching for a way out of the disastrous situation their country has reached after ten years of violent conflict. The issue is not straightforward, and the exit is unclear, with everyone trying to feel their way out in…
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Where does Iran stand on the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh?
While most attention is focused on the positions of Russia and Turkey in the ongoing conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Iran receives less attention. The former are the direct regional sponsors of the Armenian and Azeri parties to the crisis, but Iran is likely to be the most affected by…
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Russian and Turkish involvement connects the crises in Syria and Libya
There have been frequent reports that Russia has transferred a fleet of MiG-29s and two Sukhoi 24s from Hmeimim on the Syrian coast to Al-Jafra in central Libya to support the forces of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar as he tries to take control of Tripoli. If such reports are accurate,…
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The Gulf’s coronavirus challenges
The coronavirus outbreak has put the Arab Gulf States under the spotlight and exposed their structural weaknesses. It has also suggested that security, which is often the focus because of geopolitical regional rivalry, especially with Iran, distracts from other equally important threats. While it is true that the Gulf States…
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The trio ruling Iran
It seems that Iran will continue to appear in the headlines for a long time. After the protests were finally extinguished, the focus in the coming weeks will be on the general elections for the 11th parliament of the republic in February. Although the parliamentary elections are an important stage…
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The winners and losers in the Iran crisis
It is in the nature of crises, both long term and temporary, for losers and winners to emerge. It is also natural for the human actors therein to be rational and base their calculations and considerations on reducing losses and maximising gains. However, these calculations are not always accurate or…
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Where is the flaw in the Gulf’s security?
Since the world financial crisis in 2008, the US has taken every possible opportunity to pressure its allies, whether in NATO or in Asia, in order to increase their defence spending to 2 per cent of their GNP. With the exception of France, Britain and South Korea, even America’s closes…