Russia set to step into the Gulf as Washington looks to Iran

Russia is keen to capitalise on the opportunities presented by the Iranian nuclear deal, as Gulf states become open to working with new international partners. However, it’s unclear the extent to which the Russians can build positive links with the conservatives in the Gulf, although Putin is keen to court them.

Nader Entessar is an academic and commentator on Gulf politics. “As the United States begins to re-calibrate its Middle East policies, Russia is seeking to fill the void by currying favour with the conservative Gulf states,” he told MEMO. “In my opinion, there are inherent limits on what Moscow achieves. It may be able to score some points here and there, but the conservatives in the Gulf cannot cut their umbilical cord to the US, their main patron, without undermining their own security and indeed their own survival.”

Nevertheless, as the ink dried on the Iranian nuclear deal, the balance of power across the Middle East, already in flux, twisted again. Though much has already been said about Russia’s support for Assad and Al-Sisi, less emphasis has been placed on Russia’s advances in the Gulf, where Moscow is now beginning to make serious ground against waning American and European interests.

As a result of the Geneva deal, Bahrain appears to have lost out the most and is courting the Russians actively. The Sunni regime already suspected Iran of stoking internal unrest amongst the Shia population, and a schism between the strategically important but geographically miniscule desert kingdom and the West is looking likely.

The first warning shot came as the Crown Prince of Bahrain was interviewed in the Daily Telegraph in December 2013. In dealing with Syria and Iran, Washington had been “schizophrenic,” the Crown Prince told his interviewer; he dismissed Obama’s Middle Eastern policy as “transient and reactive”.

Riding to the rescue, posited the Crown Prince, was Vladimir Putin. “The Russians have proved they are reliable friends,” said Sheikh Salman. He referenced Iran and Putin’s diplomatic intervention in Syria. Later in the interview he suggested that the Gulf states were looking to expand their support base, “rather than just relying on Washington”.

Russia has been happy to cosy up to Bahrain in light of its dissatisfaction with the United States. The president of Gazprom has been dispatched; the Russian ambassador in Manama has hinted that dialogue at the highest level could soon open up; and the Russians increased their presence at the Bahrain International Air Show last week.

Not only that, but notable talks have also taken place between the Shia opposition and Foreign Ministry officials in Moscow. It’s hard to know at this stage, though, whether Moscow is committed to peaceful reform or just causing trouble for Western interests.

While Bahrain is tiny, its role is significant. The US Fifth Fleet is based in Manama and ties between the British and Bahraini establishments have colonial roots. The country also acts as an off-shore finance hub for the Gulf oil-states. As such, seeing Bahrainis, regime-linked or otherwise, looking to Moscow for support is sure to have shaken foreign policy officials in both London and Washington.

Russia is also making inroads with the United Arab Emirates. Since the nuclear deal, Dubai officials have been urging sanctions on Iran to be lifted quickly so that trade routes to the Emirate can be re-opened. Abu Dhabi is less enthusiastic about the deal; it still sees Iran as a security threat. But while political opinions may differ between the Emirates that make up the UAE, attitudes towards the US, particularly over Washington’s support for the overthrow of Mubarak, have been freezing over for a while. Overall, the UAE is looking to diversify its defence spending, and Russian companies represent an opportunity to move away from European as well as American suppliers. In fact, the love is already flowing back from Moscow; according to SIPRI, over 7 per cent of Russian arms sales in 2008-2012 went to the UAE.

The Voice of Russia, effectively an English-language propaganda instrument for the Kremlin, released an analysis shortly after Christmas calling the Emirates “a serious and promising partner for Russia”. Abu Dhabi had recently announced $5bn worth of investment into Russian infrastructure projects, on top of $2bn already invested earlier in the year. Commercial ties could double in 2014, looking to the oil sector in particular for explosive growth, argued the media outlet.

Russia already has 40 companies operating in the UAE, as well as 350 joint ventures with the government. Building on the successful event in Sharjah in 2012, next month will see a repeat of a bi-lateral trade show which could raise billions more in investments.

The small but mighty Qatar has a significantly more strained relationship with the Russians, mainly as a major competitor for the global energy markets, although an assault on the Russian ambassador by Doha officials worsened diplomatic relations further in 2011. Qatar was also one of the main funders of the Free Syrian Army, which pitted them squarely against Putin’s support for Assad when the war started in Syria.

However, a recent change in Qatar’s rulers has led to their stance becoming less confrontational, advocating a peaceful resolution to the Syria conflict rather than funding further resistance. This also makes a more amicable relationship with Russia more likely. Some energy analysts are even suggesting that if Gazprom can find a way to work with rather than against Qatar on gas trading, it might help to extricate itself from its current predicament; the energy company is facing numerous expensive problems in Europe.

Saudi Arabia’s position on the Iran deal is clear; the government in Riyadh feels wronged by Washington and wants to recalibrate its external allies. Will this include Russia? It’s not yet clear.

“We believe that many of the West’s policies on both Iran and Syria risk the stability and security of the Middle East,” wrote Saudi’s Washington ambassador in the New York Times. “[The nuclear deal] is a dangerous gamble, about which we cannot remain silent, and we will not stand idly by,” he added.

The diplomat was serious about change; he went to meet with Jewish-American groups shortly afterwards, and back home Saudi intelligence officials are alleged to have met with the Israelis, suggesting a willingness to consider an alliance that would previously have been unthinkable.

Yet Saudi Arabia has a long-standing tradition of support from the US and it’s unlikely that it will walk away immediately to join a tempestuous Putin, who suspects that the plotters behind the Volgograd bombings may have originated in the kingdom. He has already rejected an attempt by the Saudis to bribe him with discounted oil to stop supporting Assad.

Saudi Arabia has options, China could be a good alternative partner and staying with the US will probably be rewarded by Washington. The Obama administration is not keen on upsetting the status quo too much just after it has struck a deal with Iran.

Russia will want to capitalise on every opportunity it can in the Gulf; the rewards for its defence industry and for regional military power are too great to ignore but it will not be straightforward and Moscow’s strategy is yet to be set out. It’s definitely one to watch.

Alastair Sloan is a freelance journalist, commentator & social entrepreneur. His work appears in several print and digital publications, including The Guardian, The Hufngton Post,The Evening Standard, openDemocracy and many more.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.