Saudi ruling royal family moves to pre-empt succession crisis

The Saudi Royal Court’s announcement of the appointment of Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz as the second in line to the throne is believed to be the first step towards addressing one of the biggest challenges faced by the royal family for 50 years, potentially avoiding a future conflict over power in the Arabian Kingdom.

The Saudi Gazette newspaper published an article about the appointment by journalist Khaled Al-Maeena, who said: “there is no alternative and no choice. There must be clarity when dealing with the succession issue.”

Although the Saudi royal family makes sure to keep any sort of competition over power between King Abdulaziz’s descendants locked behind doors, some informed Saudis believe that certain royal family members are worried that they are being marginalised.

The royal family is keen to avoid any internal conflicts over power that could jeopardise the family’s dynasty, like the two ruling Saudi families who lost power in the 18th and 19th centuries due to similar conflicts. They also want to avoid an overall administrative paralysis similar to the one that hit the country 18 years ago when King Fahd had a paralysing stroke without formally transferring his powers to another person, leaving the country without a ruler in the interim.

The renowned historian and political scientist of the Arabian Gulf region Joseph A. Kéchichian said that: “Naming the prince who is second in line to the throne comes because the king and crown prince are both in advanced age and not in the best of health. Therefore, such a precautionary measure will ensure that the king’s position does not end up empty when the time comes, which I believe is important in itself.”

US officials said that King Abdullah appeared in good condition when he held discussions with US President Barack Obama for nearly two hours on Friday, despite the fact that he had an oxygen tube attached to his nose for the entire period. The King rarely appears at public events or holds high-level meetings with foreign leaders.

The crown prince, Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz Al-Saud, is 78 years old, while Prince Muqrin is believed to be only 69 years old. When the Arab media published images of the Saudi royal princes lined up on Sunday in the presidential palace in Riyadh to pledge their allegiance to Prince Muqrin, Saudi social networking sites were full of rumours about further arrangements within the Al-Saud family.

Prince Muqrin’s appointment as second in line to the throne supersedes the Crown Prince Salman’s ability to choose his own crown prince when he becomes King, raising speculations about broader agreements within the ruling family. Over the past two years, King Abdullah held a series of appointments and promoted many of the young princes, including his own sons, to positions that were previously restricted to the older members of the Al-Saud family in an apparent attempt to form a new ruling team including his son, Prince Miteb bin Abdullah, who is leading the Saudi National Guard, and his nephew, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who serves as the Kingdom’s Interior Minister. The two Princes are considered the strongest candidates of their generation to rule the Kingdom in the future.

Some Saudis now hope that appointing Prince Muqrin as deputy crown prince will be the beginning of a new dialogue on how to select an appropriate candidate from the next generation that would thwart any divisive discussions over power in the future.

Al-Maeena wrote that: “this will bring more peace of mind. If there is a clear trend, I believe that people will welcome this,” adding that managing a power transition between generations requires great political insight.

Especially considering that for the first time since the 1960s, Saudis cannot predict with any degree of certainty the names of the next three or four princes in the informal sequence to rule.

King Abdullah and Crown Prince Salman are the last active members of the ruling family who overthrew King Saud in 1964, in favour of his brother King Faisal, to establish a new trend in power transfers from brother to brother.

While some observers fear the King’s decision could destabilize the power balance within the Al-Saud family, if the ruling family was able to conclude an internal agreement now, then it may help to form a united front that could save the Kingdom from external challenges being faced by the Arab world more generally. By resolving any disagreements within the ruling family while the country benefits from high oil prices, budget surpluses and foreign exchange reserves, amounting to $717 billion, this allows the Kingdom to continue spending lavishly on social programmes.

However, economists believe that a future government might have to take unpopular decisions and support larger numbers of public sector employees to keep the country’s economic wheel moving.

Analysts believe the Allegiance Council’s approval of Prince Muqrin’s appointment will actually help the succession process, because the Council consists of all 40 branches representing the descendants of King Abdulaziz. Thus if the princes of any one branch are the most likely candidates to take the king’s position, then the Council’s involvement means that the rest of the royal family will still have influence on the final decision.

Informed Saudi officials also noted that the royal family’s approval of appointing Prince Muqrin as second in line to the throne before King Abdullah’s death probably involved lengthy and complex negotiations.

Although the rules that govern the Allegiance Council help to stabilise the process, managing the family’s many branches that can influence the process is a difficulty in itself.