Syria is the victim of West-Iran confrontation

Since Syrian opposition forces withdrew from Old Homs, Iranian fighters have desperately been trying to launch comprehensive attacks on all fronts. Iranian militias have been involved in the Syrian conflict since the battle of Qaseer last year; today, they have coordinated their efforts to run parallel to fighters of the so-called “Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria”, who are currently behind the resistance lines.

The goal behind this newfound ferocity in fighting is to achieve the largest possible gains from the now three-year war in Syria. When the time comes to make the final decision, Iranian forces are hoping to bring an end to the West’s long time investment in the country, which seeks to cut off Iran’s road to nuclear weapons and their production. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s leadership, which is embroiled in Syria, has gambled on exploiting the tensions within the popular resistance movements. There is some hesitation on the part of opposition alliances and clashes of political leaders when it comes to delaying a ceasefire agreement.

What this means is that we should expect unprecedented violence and brutal fighting in the upcoming months, with more shelling and use of heavy artillery, as well as barrel bombs and rockets. This will be intended to subjugate the population and place before them a fait accompli, forcing them to accept any agreement just to end the violence. We can be sure that this agreement will secure Iran’s hold on Syria as well as the rest of the Levant shortly thereafter.

This is what was reflected in the statements made by Iranian officials, politicians and military commanders, most recently General Hussein Hamdani, the deputy commander of the Revolutionary Guards. He confirmed that Iranian “defensive” military bases are now located in southern Lebanon. “Bashar Al-Assad,” he asserted, “is waging the war on our behalf and he will not negotiate whether or not he will stay in power.” This belies claims that Iran is working to find a political solution in Syria. In any case, it is highly unlikely that any Syrian would accept an Iranian solution to the violence, especially when the Iranian involvement and the occupation have now been exposed in their country. Moreover, it does not benefit any Western or Arab political party to grant Iran such a geo-strategically important gift for free because Iran’s strongholds in Syria will grant them power over the Levant as a whole, due primarily to the lack of morality that military officials have exhibited towards the Syrian people.

If Iran continues with its destructive policies in Syria things will certainly escalate towards a lengthier war. The West will then begin to think of ways to loosen the “Khomeinite” Republic’s grip on Syria and will attempt to undermine it cheaply. All the West needs to do to prevent a solid Iranian victory is to maintain the balance of power that prevents either side from winning. Western powers will then blame the Syrian people and the numerous militias, especially those with Iranian affiliations, for the bloody cost of the war.

There is no doubt that Iran’s influence in Syria is tied directly to its exports of petroleum and natural gas as well as the support it receives from China and Russia. Iran is working to change the realities on the ground in Syria in an attempt to blind everyone into participating in a bloody war. The government in Tehran is also exploiting the support of its Shiite circles all over the region, something that is especially important given the Iranian people’s lack of free political will after the suspension of the Green Revolution in 2009. Yet, Iran is depending on the human cost of the war being ignored. In fact, Iran is promoting a sectarian political system, as this is the racist political ideology that has been adopted by warring militias. It seeks to revive negative memories from the past, particularly the tense relationship between Iran and the West, which has governed politics in the region for over a century.

Iran also believes that it can instil a sense of dual national and religiousness consciousness as a way to grieve for the lack of opportunities and resources that it has experienced in the recent past. Iran’s leaders believe that this is their opportunity to win the war against the hesitant West and that it will do so by adhering to their political ideologies, which they believe justify Tehran’s participation in Syria’s bloody massacres. For Iran, the war in Syria is an opportunity to build moral and political credibility.

The West is pushing for more time and Iran looks to the shock value of systematic killings and genocide. These factors will leave nothing behind in Syria, neither human beings nor stones.

The policies adopted by Iran and the West explain the nature of the Syrian people’s confrontation and struggle to win back their lost homeland. Whatever the outcome, Iran will not win this war and it will not succeed in shaking the will of the Syrian people. They will not be intimidated no matter how many atrocities are committed. Iran will lose this war just as colonial powers lost wars before them and it will be forced to apologise to the victims of its brutal policies.

Translated from Al Araby Al Jadid 21 May, 2014

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.